Weather Will Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 WB latest EURO weeklies look good for late Jan. Early Feb. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 WB latest EURO weeklies look good for late Jan. Early Feb.They’ve looked good all year. Where is your snow? 14 1 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 3 minutes ago, Ji said: They’ve looked good all year. Where is your snow? Trying to be positive. Point is that it looks like it will stay seasonal around the 21-25 or so and then turn sharply colder again as we enter February. I would love one big storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 Trying to be positive. Point is that it looks like it will stay seasonal around the 21-25 or so and then turn sharply colder again as we enter February. I would love one big storm. lol your positivity usually lasts for about 6 hours I think the idea of a great winter is over. Now are are 1983 2016 hunting 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 We know it is going to rain tomorrow and Saturday. Until these two storms clear the field I think it is very difficult trying to figure out next week. Sunday- Monday will be interesting to watch the model runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 Real question: What good are the weeklies? Isn't that like...impossibly far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 Real question: What good are the weeklies? Isn't that like...impossibly far out?They have maybe 0.5% more skill than throwing darts. Mostly printing out old El Niño analogs from what I’ve seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 They have maybe 0.5% more skill than throwing darts. Mostly printing out old El Niño analogs from what I’ve seen Watch us have a 95/96 next year when no one is expecting it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 3 minutes ago, paulythegun said: They have maybe 0.5% more skill than throwing darts. Mostly printing out old El Niño analogs from what I’ve seen Honestly for the last couple years the best model has been the Panic Room thread. Basically just get your winter weather forecast from there and it's been pretty accurate. No fancy models needed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Real question: What good are the weeklies? Isn't that like...impossibly far out? They're good for looking at the northern hemisphere and how things could evolve. When I look at the weeklies above it makes a lot sense to me. Epo ridge still there but higher heights/pressure squeezing back into the NAO region. So the idea of blocking flexing after the TPV does the do-si-do around the pole and heads south again. Adds some confidence to my thoughts earlier about how we move thru the month. What the weeklies aren't good for is snowfall/storms or anything specific. I only use them to know whether to close my blinds or not. Right now they remain open. 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 27 minutes ago, Weather Will said: We know it is going to rain tomorrow and Saturday. Until these two storms clear the field I think it is very difficult trying to figure out next week. Sunday- Monday will be interesting to watch the model runs. We shit the blinds for 7 days as we reload and regroup. Plenty of time still and no shortage of chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 1 hour ago, frd said: We’re in the flooding possible zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 10 minutes ago, snowfan said: We’re in the flooding possible zone. Yes we are. Flooded with winter weather that is…see how I turned a frown upside down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 18z control looks like last nights 00z thru 144. Op and control mirror each other for the most part. This could bode well for 00z… . 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 The next two systems are very powerful storms, and like WW said, I don’t think there’s any way to know what happens after that until the cutters actually clear the field. Maybe we get a better idea in focus once the first one reaches SE Canada. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB latest EURO weeklies look good for late Jan. Early Feb. Unfortunately not happening with that MJO phase 4 wave. The pacific ocean has been really cutting our winters short the last 4 years with a pacific firehouse, -PNA and the MJ0 lag in the MC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 They’ve looked good all year. Where is your snow?I envy your positivity. Truly. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 Unfortunately not happening with that MJO phase 4 wave. The pacific ocean has been really cutting our winters short the last 4 years with a pacific firehouse, -PNA and the MJ0 lag in the MC. Meh, MJO impact is overrated. We’ve seen too many phase 8-1’s fail and phase 4-5 succeed to believe it’s somehow the end all be all for our chances to get snow. A factor? Sure. One of a many. But the MJO is always so overblown on this forum. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 11 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Unfortunately not happening with that MJO phase 4 wave. The pacific ocean has been really cutting our winters short the last 4 years with a pacific firehouse, -PNA and the MJ0 lag in the MC. I've been wondering about that. How are we getting the polar vortex to swing through during a strong phase 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 4 hours ago, stormy said: I am sipping on a Natural Ice right now. Whats your pleasure? so many great breweries near you - seriously?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 1 hour ago, leo2000 said: Unfortunately not happening with that MJO phase 4 wave. The pacific ocean has been really cutting our winters short the last 4 years with a pacific firehouse, -PNA and the MJ0 lag in the MC. The same models runs that predict the mjo also predicted that look. You can’t separate one from the other. You’re choosing to believe the mjo forecast but not the rest of the output from the same run! Cherry picking. Besides the mjo is out of phase 4 by around Jan 17th. The mjo is likely why the guidance has a temporary breakdown of the pattern around Jan 22-28th. That’s the lag. A hostile mjo wave in mid January won’t cause February to be bad. Maybe Feb won’t be good but it won’t be because of what the mjo was on Jan 13-17th! It’s actually so ridiculous I honestly wonder if you’re trolling. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Cherry picking. Is it really cherry picking? More like turd scooping. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 1 hour ago, jayyy said: Meh, MJO impact is overrated. We’ve seen too many phase 8-1’s fail and phase 4-5 succeed to believe it’s somehow the end all be all for our chances to get snow. A factor? Sure. One of a many. But the MJO is always so overblown on this forum. . Precip/waves aren’t our issue. We do that generally well. It’s either cold enough or it's not…simple as that. I’m all in on tracking blocking. Without that, it’s a struggle to even get a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2024 Author Share Posted January 9, 2024 Aww, look at the cute little pity snow on the GFS. I hate it here 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 Doesn’t look like much, but won’t take much to create a follow up wave along that boundary either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 The GooFuS just hates us. Let’s hope that’s not the final solution getting kicked out. I wouldn’t think so, but the way things have gone so far… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 We need a new thread. Chances are coming. Let’s start fresh heading in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 I get why folks aren’t happy with this GFS run, but it’s a lot closer to a hit than they think. Still a week out, so definitely not the final solution (for better or for worse) 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 17 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Doesn’t look like much, but won’t take much to create a follow up wave along that boundary either That looks like a clear arctic boundary on the models. Some of our biggest snowstorms love to develop along arctic boundaries. That is a very stout 1051 mb high building south out of western Montana diving down to Texas and Louisanna that will really raise the heights along the East Coast maybe we can get something to develop near Jacksonville Florida or the NE Gulf to move up the coast. We likely will know very little until the cutters and the baroclinic zone they leave behind decide what to do in regard to the next cold push and storm development. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 i know it’s out there, but the 20th really seems like the time for something bigger after the potential event on the 17th. can see the GFS tank heights over the N Atl as the block decays. it fits the general KU progression (just a progression, not guaranteeing anything) 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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