Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Pretty much what it did last run too. If there is any concern to that look, it would possibly be cold/dry. But I dont mind this tbh...a little sacrifice for long term chance(s) maybe as I could see having deep cold entrenched/established and the pattern relaxing with a decent storm threat at some point. This is pure conjecture at this point but worth noting that aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This is pretty gorgeous. Closest to the 50/50 region GEFS has put the TPV. GEPS agrees 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: GEPS agrees want to wait a couple of days here, but if the amplification is real as the TPV moves into that spot and the block decays, might be honk time. lmao 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 8 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Not just him but bluewave on the New York forum too. MJO strong wave in Maritime Continent is not where we want it. I referenced the MJO wave in my analysis. But its flying...is going to spend 7-10 days in the MC, it's not stalled and cycling there like previous years. By Jan 20th its exiting into the PAC and heading towards our favorable forcing. An 8 day MC traverse ending around Jan 20th is a really poor justification for "cancel the rest of winter". 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Looks like a wave slides off the SE coast on the 12z run. 6z implied a stronger southern wave and NS interaction/phasing at the right time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I referenced the MJO wave in my analysis. But its flying...is going to spend 7-10 days in the MC, it's not stalled and cycling there like previous years. By Jan 20th its exiting into the PAC and heading towards our favorable forcing. An 8 day MC traverse ending around Jan 20th is a really poor justification for "cancel the rest of winter". Yeah I pointed out earlier how fast the mjo wave is projected to go, and once it gets to p7 we can expect a reload of a good pattern with an aleutian low returning for late Jan into Feb brooklyn’s weeklies show this too. Some big dogs start out as a wave in the pac during mjo7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I still think we have a good chance to go on a run if we can just get some of the minor flaws out of the way. We've been flirting with really good looks but with just enough flaws to prevent it all coming together. 1957-58 was pretty high in my analogs and I see some similarities. That can be good or bad depending how you view what I am about to say. I will point out the good and the bad. December 1957 was warm But our area managed a fluke snowstorm the first week of December in an otherwise warm pattern. Not so sure that would even work now given how much December as a whole has warmed since then. A marginal warm storm during a warm pattern on Dec 4 probably isn't an option anymore. Other than that the only snow Baltimore had before February that winter was a 1" clipper in January. This was the mean pattern for January But all 3 major precipitation events that month were rain. The only snow was the 1" clipper. The reason is linked to the ridge centered near 50/50. Looking at each major qpf event that ridge there seems to have allowed an inside track despite what is otherwise a good longwave pattern for the month. But obviously February finally hit and the ridge migrated further north further away from the 50/50 space So the good is there is some precedence even if we strike out in the next 10 days that we could still be on track for a good year overall. We also could still see something come from the next couple weeks. We either need some luck with the interaction between the TPV and the wave around the 15-17th. Or we might get a shot after that as the TPV traverses 50/50. After that I think we relax for a bit before the pattern reloads by February. So in terms of the pattern progression we are still on track. But if we want to be skeptical...would 1958 even still work today? Am I using analogs that given the same longwave pattern imposed on todays warmer climate wouldn't lead to nearly as much snow? Would that early December storm in a warm pattern have worked today? I do think the Feb HECS would but that was a one trick pony month. The other 2 big snows that winter came in mid to late March and Baltimore had a low temperate of 33 degrees for both. If you warm that same scenario just 1C both would have been all rainstorms now. @Terpeast can probably say more conclusively than me, but there could be an argument that what we think of as an EPIC season, might have just been a one storm year with some minor marginal snow/slop events around it...kinda like 2016! Maybe when I look at the pattern from 2016 and say we were unlucky and should have done better...the real truth is I am imposing a historical "normal" that doesn't exist anymore to come to that conclusion and 2016 is what you get now. Even if that is true I think the odds we get at least one big hit are still very high, and I am not one who ever complained about 2016...that storm was so awesome it was worth it. But I know some do complain about that season. Lastly...the pattern has been what was expected. This has been the mean since Dec 25. We just have no snow to show for it. It's been too warm. This is the projected mean the next month Hopefully we get some snow from it as we take the same favorable pattern into the heart of our snow climo. But at the end of the season, if this ends up a fail...it won't be because the nino didn't couple, or "the pac" or any other BS nonsense. The pattern is taking on and projects to continue to have canonical nino characteristics that have lead to a lot of snow here though our history. We have already had several perfect track rainstorms. We are getting our "answer" can this pattern still work. So far that answer has been no. But we have yet to enter when it has produced the most prolific results historically. We will know very soon! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Terpeast can probably say more conclusively than me, but there could be an argument that what we think of as an EPIC season, might have just been a one storm year with some minor marginal snow/slop events around it...kinda like 2016! I can't say conclusively because IAD data doesn't go back that far. So if I look at BWI data, that Dec 4, 1957 storm was with a high of 33 and low 29. If we warm that up by 4 degrees, we get 37/33. Maybe that 8 inches gets cut to 2-3" or becomes a mix/rain. That Jan clipper I think might still get us 1" because the cold air leading up to it was pretty cold with lows in the teens. But who knows. Feb 15-16, 1958 was a 16 inch storm for BWI with temps decreasing from 32 to 9 throughout the event. Plenty of cold before the event, too. I don't think warming this up by 4 degrees would have affected this storm if it were to happen today. March 19-20, 1958 was a 7 incher with temps between 33 and 39. Expect a rainstorm if it happened today. Don't know about IAD or points further west from IAD-BWI, might just be cold enough for wet snow in marginal situations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 Yep. Euro went from sugar to shit in 12 hours. what else is new. Congrats Arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 i thought euro was going to cut..it actually goes below us and still dosent snow on us lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, stormtracker said: Yep. Euro went from sugar to shit in 12 hours. what else is new. Congrats Arkansas lol the Low pressure is in the exact same place from 00z to 12z....we just lost all the 14 inches and get ice instead. What a terrible place we live 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, Ji said: lol the Low pressure is in the exact same place from 00z to 12z....we just lost all the 14 inches and get ice instead. What a terrible place we live Map? If the low pressure track is the same, then what's the problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 on to the next 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Ji said: lol the Low pressure is in the exact same place from 00z to 12z....we just lost all the 14 inches and get ice instead. What a terrible place we live what temps again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 main thing is im glad there is a robust wave. This will likely end up being snow instead of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, Terpeast said: Map? If the low pressure track is the same, then what's the problem? It’s not the same at all. Cuts up the spine of the Apps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Map? If the low pressure track is the same, then what's the problem? It’s not the same track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Map? If the low pressure track is the same, then what's the problem? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: It’s not the same at all. Cuts up the spine of the Apps it cuts a bit but then reforms and ends up south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Yeah, 00z had the transfer to the coast happen much further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, Paleocene said: Yeah, 00z had the transfer to the coast happen much further south. i mean its not a huge difference.....that far out. Ive seen worse tracks than the 12z. Seems like a slight change could make it much more favorable. Lets see what ensembles say after i google them 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Unless the TPV location changes, but unfortunately guidance seems to be settling in on a general location too far west...either cutter or suppressed are the two most likely solutions. There is room for a win but its a thread the needle solution we need with that TPV there. The op euro at 0z spit out that thread the needle solution so its in there as a longshot possibility, but its just that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Also the timing is way different, storm sped up by like 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Ok, the SLP position is fine, but I don't love the lack of a high to the north. It opens up for a cutter or app runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: No shortage of activity at the very least. And while most here are interested in our own yards, the next 2 systems in the upper midwest will be amazing to see unfold from a sheer meteo standpoint. Some spots will get to witness true blizzard conditions within days of each other. So while we may not be tracking anything discrete here attm we can try and enjoy watching what this Nino is throwing at pasts of the US. That should give hope moving forward. Pretty good feed to watch would be Virtual Railfan there is one in Elkhart Indiana they should have interesting weather there I would think. Here we are for now watching live video streams last year was Lake Tahoe this year it is anywhere in the midwest for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 That's an impressive vorticity ribbon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I think Ohio deserves 3 blizzards in a week so I’m good with this solution 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It’s not the same at all. Cuts up the spine of the Apps Yeah and that’s an extremely unlikely low track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 973 low making landfall in coastal Maine with Caribou switching over to rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Ok, the SLP position is fine, but I don't love the lack of a high to the north. It opens up for a cutter or app runnerNo 50-50. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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