Heisy Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 Need a 50/50 or this is the result, migrating tpv and ni 50/50, SE ridge flexes. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 Monster block traps the big low that runs through the lakes next weekend.... it goes over toronto then retrogrades back to SW of the hudson bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: Need a 50/50 or this is the result, migrating tpv and ni 50/50, SE ridge flexes. . It's not this or that or else. It can work, but need good wave timing. We do in most setups to get snow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 21 minutes ago, BristowWx said: its total crap show as depicted. warms up just enought for rain then back to cold. op run at range of course. no tilt, no dig, no cold, no bueno I like it, supports the general idea of a wave tracking to our south as the Euro showed. Pretty decent consistency with the track this far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 2 hours ago, Imgoinhungry said: Meh. Saturday’s storm was a big one 8 days out. . It was still a big one three days out. Let see if models can do Anything accurate outside of 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 It's one of a myriad of possibilities six or seven days out. But we do have the players on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 7 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: I like it, supports the general idea of a wave tracking to our south as the Euro showed. Pretty decent consistency with the track this far out. I guess but it really only has that south track going for it....as depicted...the 50/50 was mentioned. also no CAD. it's just a progressive wave that comes in on the heels of an arctic blast before it. maybe it will improve. not on the CMC op of course. Thats also a terd wagon. 8 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I guess but it really only has that south track going for it....as depicted...the 50/50 was mentioned. also no CAD. it's just a progressive wave that comes in on the heels of an arctic blast before it. maybe it will improve. not on the CMC op of course. Thats also a terd wagon. 8 days out. Op CMC may look like a turd, but look at the last 4-6 runs. It's trended better and now looks similar to the GFS. We only need them both to trend a little better and maybe a bit more suppressed at these lead times. 0z ensembles looked good on all 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 31 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Monster block traps the big low that runs through the lakes next weekend.... it goes over toronto then retrogrades back to SW of the hudson bay Pretty much what happens yes. It would be nice if that feature were further east towards the 50-50 region, but at this juncture there is a decent chance it wont be for that window. If so it just makes the outcome we want a bit more of a challenge. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 16 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: It was still a big one three days out. Let see if models can do Anything accurate outside of 72 hours. This is what it actually looked like This is what the ensembles said from 5 days out Good luck trying to do better than that on a 5 day forecast. We KNOW global models underestimate mid level warming with these storms when there is no block and locked in confluence...we knew we didn't have that...anyone who was believing those snow maps from 5 days out and not realizing what was probably going to happen...well that is user error not the fault of the tools. They did an amazing job and I had a pretty good idea what was going to happen from a LONG way out. Like I said they are tools not a forecast, and most who know how to use those tools made pretty good forecasts IMO based on them. Weenie posts in this thread does not mean skilled forecasters actually expected a lot of snow in DC 5 days out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Op CMC may look like a turd, but look at the last 4-6 runs. It's trended better and now looks similar to the GFS. We only need them both to trend a little better and maybe a bit more suppressed at these lead times. 0z ensembles looked good on all 3 Yes. Agree. I guess a lot of the fate of this rests on what happens with the storm before it on Saturday. The one that gives my mom/dad 24 solid inches up in Rochester, MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 16 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I guess but it really only has that south track going for it....as depicted...the 50/50 was mentioned. also no CAD. it's just a progressive wave that comes in on the heels of an arctic blast before it. maybe it will improve. not on the CMC op of course. Thats also a terd wagon. 8 days out. Yeah as depicted no bueno. But hopefully will change. GEFS looks good to me at 186....below normal temps and precip to our south. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yes. Agree. I guess a lot of the fate of this rests on what happens with the storm before it on Saturday. The one that gives my mom/dad 24 solid inches up in Rochester, MI. You need to vist the folks and fast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 11 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Yeah as depicted no bueno. But hopefully will change. GEFS looks good to me at 186....below normal temps and precip to our south. Yes the 12z GEFS looks pretty darn good. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yes the 12z GEFS looks pretty darn good. this is much better in the Atlantic afterwards. just need a wave to slip underneath 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is much better in the Atlantic afterwards. just need a wave to slip underneath 6z run had something for around the 20th with a great h5 look leading in so lets see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 The signal is clearly there on the GEFS. The op ECM is there, the GFS and GEM ops. are sniffing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 No shortage of activity at the very least. And while most here are interested in our own yards, the next 2 systems in the upper midwest will be amazing to see unfold from a sheer meteo standpoint. Some spots will get to witness true blizzard conditions within days of each other. So while we may not be tracking anything discrete here attm we can try and enjoy watching what this Nino is throwing at pasts of the US. That should give hope moving forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: 6z run had something for around the 20th with a great h5 look leading in so lets see This is pretty gorgeous. Closest to the 50/50 region GEFS has put the TPV. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: This is pretty gorgeous. Closest to the 50/50 region GEFS has put the TPV. can see energy working in from the south, too 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 6z run had something for around the 20th with a great h5 look leading in so lets seeGEPS has a signal for around the 20th as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: can see energy working in from the south, too Pretty much what it did last run too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: can see energy working in from the south, too Is that a +PNA? That is almost near the textbook mean longitudinal axis point around Idaho. Yeah, potentials lie ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It’s a temporary relax. The winter’s over nonsense was started by that clown Cohen. It’s a temporary response to the MC forcing as the mjo progresses and the epo ridge sliding over into Russia. The tpv temporarily traverses the pole but it’s still weak and will get displaced again quickly once forcing gets out of the MC imo. Not just him but bluewave on the New York forum too. MJO strong wave in Maritime Continent is not where we want it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 You need to look at the members to see how than mean is achieved. I suspect that there’s several suppressed solutions in there . Just a hunch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Pretty much what it did last run too. If there is any concern to that look, it would possibly be cold/dry. But I dont mind this tbh...a little sacrifice for long term chance(s) maybe as I could see having deep cold entrenched/established and the pattern relaxing with a decent storm threat at some point. This is pure conjecture at this point but worth noting that aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This is pretty gorgeous. Closest to the 50/50 region GEFS has put the TPV. GEPS agrees 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: GEPS agrees want to wait a couple of days here, but if the amplification is real as the TPV moves into that spot and the block decays, might be honk time. lmao 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 8 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Not just him but bluewave on the New York forum too. MJO strong wave in Maritime Continent is not where we want it. I referenced the MJO wave in my analysis. But its flying...is going to spend 7-10 days in the MC, it's not stalled and cycling there like previous years. By Jan 20th its exiting into the PAC and heading towards our favorable forcing. An 8 day MC traverse ending around Jan 20th is a really poor justification for "cancel the rest of winter". 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2024 Share Posted January 8, 2024 Looks like a wave slides off the SE coast on the 12z run. 6z implied a stronger southern wave and NS interaction/phasing at the right time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now