CAPE Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 For those with concerns about the pattern breaking down/degrading for late month, the last few ens runs have trended better. After the -NAO retrogrades/decays, TPV energy drops southward in its place, as the 20th storm moves into the 50-50 domain with ridging redeveloping into GL. Some of this is facilitated by improvement in the Pacific. The NPAC low shifts and strengthens just south of the Aleutians in a more favorable position to allow a ridge to build into western NA. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: For those with concerns about the pattern breaking down/degrading for late month, the last few ens runs have trended better. After the -NAO retrogrades/decays, TPV energy drops southward in its place, as the 20th storm moves into the 50-50 domain with ridging redeveloping into GL. Some of this is facilitated by improvement in the Pacific. The NPAC low shifts and strengthens just south of the Aleutians in a more favorable position to allow a ridge to build into western NA. that 500mb ridge is also deceiving. with the cold airmass already in place along with a -EPO and 50/50, it's actually a better pattern than it looks 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: that 500mb ridge is also deceiving. with the cold airmass already in place along with a -EPO and 50/50, it's actually a better pattern than it looks Yep, below normal surface temps in the east for that timeframe. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I would expect more confluence to show up with blocking like this. that's usually how these kinds of pattern correct Agreed. One trend over the major ens means past 4 - 6 runs is the strengthening of the block / ridging in the NAO domain. That is certainly something we want to see trend this way and not a weaker HL look. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yep, below normal surface temps in the east for that timeframe. overrunning? i can see it. way out there, of course 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 The NAO ridge definitely undergoes some pulses the next few weeks as @CAPE noted following this window as the TPV takes up residence. I think it was @Bob Chill who alluded to this pulsing aspect headed into the 2nd half. But the trend to strengthen the block just prior to the 16th before waning is a welcome trend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is a reason 50/50 is the sweet spot. It leaves enough room for a wave to amply behind it while also creating a westerly flow just above us so the system can’t cut. With the tpv west of there we have to play a balance act. Too strong and it squashes the wave. To weak the wave cuts. It’s a legit threat. But as shown a tenuous one. I’d be honking like crazy if we see that tpv trend closer to the canonical spot. Otherwise as shown it’s not a setup I’d feel good about until much closer leads because of the delicate balance being played there. As always PSU. A very nice read bro!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: overrunning? i can see it. way out there, of course Yeah that is a really flat ridge as depicted- more of an indication of slightly higher than avg h5 heights. Not a mild look in late January given the other features in place. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The NAO ridge definitely undergoes some pulses the next few weeks as @CAPE noted following this window as the TPV takes up residence. I think it was @Bob Chill who alluded to this pulsing aspect headed into the 2nd half. But the trend to strengthen the block just prior to the 16th before waning is a welcome trend. My guess is the "breakdown" is nothing more than a reshuffle. The closed ridge floating towards Siberia is a bit of a thorn because you can't connect that to the AO/NAO space. Earth won't allow it. Lolol. Maybe it rolls over the top and ends up beefing up a -AO. Maybe it just dissolves and heights build around the pole just cuz. I'm not nearly smart enough to know the how's but I've watched this stuff long enuff to know that this blocking event most likely isn't super anomalous and temporary. It feels more like a setup for multiple reiterations of the same general idea. That said, falling completely apart is on the table so if leads shorten and the blocking idea vanishes it's a big net negative to the future of our winter. Analogs look very active. Lots of mixed events in there but the analogs are screaming precip with a colder profile. Some of the analogs show that it marked the beginning of a very active period like Jan 1982 listed below. Mixy but plenty wintry. Late Jan 82 into early Feb was active too. What the analogs and ens haven't been showing is big dog potential. So seeing active mixy periods with limited big storm potential is a pretty fair take for right now. Something big can pop for sure given the activity but nothing really points towards a big storm yet. If it does, you know I'm all in. But only once my personal algorithm tells me to get excited lol 15 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 37 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yep, below normal surface temps in the east for that timeframe. Yes, it's nice to see that the 50th PCTL highs for the DC/Baltimore area from the 00 UTC EPS are sub-40 from January 14 through the 22nd. When cold air is present a minor system could pop up in the medium-range and break the 1" drought at DCA and BWI. That said, I'm still hoping to reel in a big dog detected in the long range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 7 hours ago, stormtracker said: Classic I-95 snowstorm. Sigh. I wish it was hour 24 instead of 200+ The BIG ones lock in early. You should know that better than anyone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 The BIG ones lock in early. You should know that better than anyone. Meh. Saturday’s storm was a big one 8 days out. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 40 minutes ago, ravensrule said: The BIG ones lock in early. You should know that better than anyone. If by lock-in you mean locking you in a psychological torture chamber, then yes. Let's get locked in. But seriously, I do hope that whatever is sniffed out this far does actually happen. We need a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 hours ago, CAPE said: The synoptic setup for around the 20th still looks interesting. Checks a lot of boxes for a winter storm in the MA, and there is an indication of a southern stream shortwave interacting with NS energy riding overtop the ridge. That's the elusive look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Euro is such a classic beautiful snowstorm for I-95 for next week, arctic air and no precip issues for our entire subforum basically. Gosh we need that badly. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Not much of a storm on the ICON....but it is the ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 hours ago, CAPE said: For those with concerns about the pattern breaking down/degrading for late month, the last few ens runs have trended better. After the -NAO retrogrades/decays, TPV energy drops southward in its place, as the 20th storm moves into the 50-50 domain with ridging redeveloping into GL. Some of this is facilitated by improvement in the Pacific. The NPAC low shifts and strengthens just south of the Aleutians in a more favorable position to allow a ridge to build into western NA. It’s a temporary relax. The winter’s over nonsense was started by that clown Cohen. It’s a temporary response to the MC forcing as the mjo progresses and the epo ridge sliding over into Russia. The tpv temporarily traverses the pole but it’s still weak and will get displaced again quickly once forcing gets out of the MC imo. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It’s a temporary relax. The winter’s over nonsense was started by that clown Cohen. It’s a temporary response to the MC forcing as the mjo president greases and the epo ridge sliding over into Russia. The tpv temporarily traverses the pole but it’s still weak and will get displaced again quickly once forcing gets out of the MC imo. then, the MJO moves into the central Pacific and the Aleutian Low develops 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s a temporary relax. The winter’s over nonsense was started by that clown Cohen. It’s a temporary response to the MC forcing as the mjo president greases and the epo ridge sliding over into Russia. The tpv temporarily traverses the pole but it’s still weak and will get displaced again quickly once forcing gets out of the MC imo. I know. My post was intended for those who have been 'concerned' about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 37 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Euro is such a classic beautiful snowstorm for I-95 for next week, arctic air and no precip issues for our entire subforum basically. Gosh we need that badly. I cant get the euro out that far for 06z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: I cant get the euro out that far for 06z lol It was the Euro at 00z that showed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12z GFS "looks" good at 156... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 prob gonna cut on the GFS 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GFS "looks" good at 156... You "think" so, eh? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Since I highlighted the issues with the Jan 17th threat earlier I wanted to say it can work. It would just be a much higher probability if the TPV were located further east. But there is one example that worked with the TPV where the guidance has it, and its from this exact time of year and one of our nino analogs. Jan 22 1987 was very similar and worked out. So this can work, just would take lucky timing wrt the wave spacing, the boundary, and the phasing between the SW and the TPV. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Mod snow at 177 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: I know. My post was intended for those who have been 'concerned' about it. I know you know, just agreeing...for the benefit of the same audience. Spell check is adding some humor to my posts lately 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: You "think" so, eh? its a bit warmer both depth of cold and 2m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 It's like a 4 hour period of snow for the 15th... it's very disheveled looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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