Jrlg1181 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Dam that really is a monster this weekend on the gfs...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 GFS pretty interesting for that 16th period..not quite there yet 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS pretty interesting for that 16th period..not quite there yet Gfs “checking” to make sure where Mt. PSU is… 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 A shift east with the snow compared to 18z in mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 8 minutes ago, LP08 said: Gfs “checking” to make sure where Mt. PSU is… That check mark has to mean something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 despite the GFS being cold from Jan 13th on---every storm is modeled as non snow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Chicago gets a 965mb blizzard and we can’t get a 1003 mb digital blue win. Frustrating but the trend still seems to be slightly moving the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Nino should be easy for us. This is too hard 2 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 i mean it generally is supposed to be easier for it to snow in CHICAGO than in the southern Mid Atlantic. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 50 minutes ago, Ji said: Nino should be easy for us. This is too hard It’s only ever easy for us in the rare historic years where IAD or BWI get 50+. But most of those years are Nino so they’re always the back of our mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 38 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: i mean it generally is supposed to be easier for it to snow in CHICAGO than in the southern Mid Atlantic. Can't argue with that statement! Except for that type of event on the gfs which is more likely to be in the mid atlantic historically... Can't find more than a dozen 15 inch + storms there since the 1800s.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 We are in a -pdo so it’s easy to just “blame the pac” and we’ve spent long stretches of the last 8 years when it was the pacific. But I’ve seen troubling signs when it wasn’t. example look at the pacific long wave pattern there. Trough west of AK. Epo ridge. But the trough dumps west. Here… same. then… opposite configuration and it floods pacific puke across. So if both possible long wave configurations don’t work….no matter how the pac is aligned the trough dumps west. The wave lengths just shorten to do it. The only way lately we get a +pna is when there is a trough just off the coast flooding warmth across the whole country so that does no good! Imo the Atlantic is just as much to blame. That high constantly off the southeast resists a trough moving east. The wave lengths just shorten so the energy digs even deeper west. Even when the pac is aligned there seems to be resistance to a trough diving into the southeast. It’s not been impossible. We’ve had some periods that knock down the war. But it seems to be a bigger part of the problem that gets talked about. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 Nice snowstorm on the Euro for the 16th guys. All blue!! Looks like 8-12" on Pivotal 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Euro is a snower for the 16th-17th 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 Classic I-95 snowstorm. Sigh. I wish it was hour 24 instead of 200+ 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 18 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Classic I-95 snowstorm. Sigh. I wish it was hour 24 instead of 200+ We need this one. Every single member here deserves this one. Make it happen captain. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Ah yes, I had a good feeling we’d wake up with one weenie run after seeing the 18z EPS.We need to keep the TPV here in SE Canada there, if it migrates W we lose the cold and heights will pump N in the SoutheastAs is it’s almost perfect, snows in the 20s. Perfect overrunning event long way to go lol. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 For the 16-17th- Looking at the individual members on the 0z EPS, about 15(30%) have the boundary to our west, which is a bit more than the 12z run. Of those members (for those that have the wave) frozen is focused to our west. The rest of the members that have a storm indicate frozen over our area or just south. Overall still a modest signal, but for those looking at the snow mean for that window, explains why it's still focused NW. The 0z GEFS has only 2-3 members implying the boundary is still to our west, and there is a somewhat stronger signal overall for frozen through our area. Compared to previous runs, seeing less of an indication for OV frozen for that period. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6z gfs has better tpv positioning vs 00z, see if it can hold.This is really close to classic…. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, CAPE said: For the 16-17th- Looking at the individual members on the 0z EPS, about 15(30%) have the boundary to our west, which is a bit more than the 12z run. Of those members those that have the wave frozen is focused to our west. The rest of the members that have a storm indicate frozen over our area or just south. Overall still a modest signal, but for those looking at the snow mean for that window, explains why it's still focused NW. The 0z GEFS has only 2-3 members implying the boundary is still to our west, and there is a somewhat stronger signal overall for frozen through our area. Compared to previous runs, seeing less of an indication for OV frozen for that period. You think the lowlands have a chance with this one ? Seems we are battling another cutter or suppression. A fine balancing act. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Still gonna be N this run, has flatter heights, but trough a bit too far W. TPV initially looked better but still migrating. Bump everything a little E and it’ll work, long way to go Said before the setup reminds me of Feb 2-3 96’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 36 minutes ago, frd said: You think the lowlands have a chance with this one ? Seems we are battling another cutter or suppression. A fine balancing act. I think so. It probably wouldn't be a cutter- in the case of the EPS members that indicate frozen to our west, that implies the wave is moving along the boundary before it progresses eastward enough. More of a timing thing between the wave and advancement of the colder airmass. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 hours ago, Heisy said: Ah yes, I had a good feeling we’d wake up with one weenie run after seeing the 18z EPS. We need to keep the TPV here in SE Canada there, if it migrates W we lose the cold and heights will pump N in the Southeast As is it’s almost perfect, snows in the 20s. Perfect overrunning event long way to go lol . yeah the it should be much colder leading in to this period. Here was the 850 Temp Anomaly right before our weekend storm that was just a tad too warm: Now compare that to the upper level temps leading in to the Jan 16th period: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 The synoptic setup for around the 20th still looks interesting. Checks a lot of boxes for a winter storm in the MA, and there is an indication of a southern stream shortwave interacting with NS energy riding overtop the ridge. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 hours ago, Heisy said: 6z gfs has better tpv positioning vs 00z, see if it can hold. This is really close to classic… . Details matter. That would be perfect if that tpv in Quebec were moving east towards 50/50. But it’s retrograding. Unless that gets further east than even the euro has it, we run the risk of a cutter or suppressed and are left at the mercy of timing and trying to tread the needle with the wave along the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Details matter. That would be perfect if that tpv in Quebec were moving east towards 50/50. But it’s retrograding. Unless that gets further east than even the euro has it, we run the risk of a cutter and are left at the mercy of timing and trying to tread the needle with the wave along the boundary. Yes agreed. I mentioned in my other post we need to avoid the retrograde or start everything farther E. We find ways to fail these days though so while it’s definitely our next threat I’m sure we’ll find a way to screw jt up. . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 There is a reason 50/50 is the sweet spot. It leaves enough room for a wave to amply behind it while also creating a westerly flow just above us so the system can’t cut. With the tpv west of there we have to play a balance act. Too strong and it squashes the wave. To weak the wave cuts. It’s a legit threat. But as shown a tenuous one. I’d be honking like crazy if we see that tpv trend closer to the canonical spot. Otherwise as shown it’s not a setup I’d feel good about until much closer leads because of the delicate balance being played there. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 There is a reason 50/50 is the sweet spot. It leaves enough room for a wave to amply behind it while also creating a westerly flow just above us so the system can’t cut. With the tpv west of there we have to play a balance act. Too strong and it squashes the wave. To weak the wave cuts. It’s a legit threat. But as shown a tenuous one. I’d be honking like crazy if we see that tpv trend closer to the canonical spot. Otherwise as shown it’s not a setup I’d feel good about until much closer leads because of the delicate balance being played there. Euro looks great but like you said a minor shift W with TPV and we lose the cold. Comes down to this…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 49 minutes ago, CAPE said: The synoptic setup for around the 20th still looks interesting. Checks a lot of boxes for a winter storm in the MA, and there is an indication of a southern stream shortwave interacting with NS energy riding overtop the ridge. If the guidance is right about the progression that’s the one that has the highest probability imo. The wave before it has a shot but unless the tpv shifts east of currently shown it needs a lot of timing and amplitude variables to go right. That look there is more classic for a wide margin of error threat where we can survive more synoptic details not being perfect because the long wave flow is set up exactly right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I would expect more confluence to show up with blocking like this. that's usually how these kinds of pattern correct 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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