Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Euro and GFS still differ greatly with handling that NW energy at 120, gfs phases it and pumps ride behind it & euro is gonna leave it behind and dump in W again it seems. Prefer GFS scenario…


.

That one is a cutter…no stopping it 

[Heisy]

Much much better than last nights run…





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[Duca892]

Out of curiosity is the EURO also showing the 16th/17th storm?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Much much better than last nights run…





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A more horizontal avocado...perhaps a plantain? 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Much much better than last nights run…





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Either way, glad to see a better looking op run at 7 days out. That’s when the ops start to hone in on a general synoptic look and progression 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Either way, glad to see a better looking op run at 7 days out. That’s when the ops start to hone in on a general synoptic look and progression 

Exactly.  I don't expect this to be a situation like the big storms (at least not now, maybe another time??), where every model has it for days on end because the setup is clear and obvious.  But...it's nice to see an increase in favorable setups for that time right after what looks to be a cutter next weekend.  Heck, the GFS has shown a decent looking event around the 16-17th somewhat consistently and I know the ensembles have hit that period as well.  And it's staying in that same time frame, not moving forward all the time.

[Shad]

looks like a nice setup for the 16th on the euro at hr 216

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, Shad said:

looks like a nice setup for the 16th on the euro at hr 216

If you like a cutter sure 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

If you like a cutter sure 

i will take this general longwave setup 10/10 times and see what happens

[Shad]

yep gonna cut this run but big improvements none the less......ensemble will be interesting.

[NorthArlington101]

If you like a cutter sure 

it’s setting up a more favorable track for the next storm /s

[Amped]

The PNA is not being nice to us on the Euro

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

it’s setting up a more favorable track for the next storm /s

 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

It wasn't what we want for what though? He seemed to be focusing on the period where there is a signal for a wave to track underneath with colder air in place centered on the 16-17th. The snow mean is modest on both models. Precip for that period is too (for our region), but actually a bit better on the EPS. It is mostly to our SE/offshore. You can see the possibility of suppression on both.

Now if you/he are referring to where the pattern ends up beyond that (towards day 15) then yeah the GEFS look is better. Not really that much different though. The differences mostly have to do with how the EPS dumps more TPV energy out west at that point, which could be in error.

I fear that first wave after the likely mlk cutter is probably suppressed. It’s not 100% but that’s a really suppressive look in general and it would take a really significant SW imo to work. Or for the look up top to relax which can happen but we’re discussing how they look now now how they might look later. (I haven’t looked at anything yet today). 
 

I was looking at how both set up what imo could be our best shot before some kind of relax/reload of the whole pattern. That might be just beyond where the ensembles end as the tpv in the 50/50 relaxes. I’m slightly troubled that the block is fading so fast. But that could be error. We want the block to relax but it needs to hold somewhat until the flow becomes less suppressive after the cutter that finally pulls the trough east. 
 

I thought last nights gefs run set up that period better. It also was set up better for the wave in the 15-20 period imo so it was just better imo. But eps wasn’t bad. Just slightly off on some important details which will change some anyways and could become what we need easy. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the evolution on the GEPS is straight up classic 

That’s perfect. You see the handoff happening around day 12. That’s a big dog setup. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

12z GEPS has probably the strongest signal so far for a storm in the 16-17th window. It's still there on the GEFS, but with at least 5 recent op runs depicting a MA snowstorm, you would think it would be a little more prominent.

 

Gefs is old tech. That’s my story. 

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I fear that first wave after the likely mlk cutter is probably suppressed. It’s not 100% but that’s a really suppressive look in general and it would take a really significant SW imo to work. Or for the look up top to relax which can happen but we’re discussing how they look now now how they might look later. (I haven’t looked at anything yet today). 
 

I was looking at how both set up what imo could be our best shot before some kind of relax/reload of the whole pattern. That might be just beyond where the ensembles end as the tpv in the 50/50 relaxes. I’m slightly troubled that the block is fading so fast. But that could be error. We want the block to relax but it needs to hold somewhat until the flow becomes less suppressive after the cutter that finally pulls the trough east. 
 

I thought last nights gefs run set up that period better. It also was set up better for the wave in the 15-20 period imo so it was just better imo. But eps wasn’t bad. Just slightly off on some important details which will change some anyways and could become what we need easy. 

GEFS and EPS look similar on the 12z run. I thought they did at 0z too. Subjective I guess. At 8-10 day leads I am more focused on the general idea, and they have been pretty close. Snow mean again modest on both, but better on the EPS. The GEPS has the best look and outcome of the 12z ens runs today for that period.(posted earlier) Splitting hairs really. All 3 are hinting at the same idea for that window.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

Euro and GFS still differ greatly with handling that NW energy at 120, gfs phases it and pumps ride behind it & euro is gonna leave it behind and dump in W again it seems. Prefer GFS scenario…


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I don’t think the stronger epo ridge on the euro is a coincidence. @Stormchaserchuck1 this is what I was talking about yesterday. Historically that epo should be good. But lately the more that ridge pumps instead of the downstream trough spreading east it digs more SW in response. It’s happened over and over and over. If that’s true we’re better off with the flatter gfs ridge there. 

[Shad]

question for the pro's   according to the 12 ens runs, would you say suppression is a bigger risk than a cutter at this point?

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

My first instinct right now is to hedge on the block not really decaying but wobbling and pulsing. I think you probably agree. For people who aren't used to using ensembles, they may think "decay" means "gone". It could happen that way but my take in lr ens is simply spread smoothing the mean to a point where features get washed. My gut guess is the AO/NAO block will remain intact and as we move forward in time the ens means will show that as leads shorten on the current decayed look. In a best case scenario, this will continue for 4-6 weeks. At least for a couple. Not a week and done. That would be anomalous based on history of previous strong blocking events. 

Eta: I'm not talking about the specific west based nao block as much as the ao/nao domain space in general. NAO domain is quite volatile but not the AO. Time will tell but history is behind us at least 

Even if the block dies completely around Jan 20 I think it’s temporary. If the epo ridge does migrate to Siberia it will force the TPV there up over the pole. That could temporarily cause a +AO/NAO. But as the mjo gets into 6-7 it will re establish the canonical Nino pac which will also likely vacate the tpv again given how weak it and the coupled SPV are. I don’t think we go positive and get stuck there. Even if we did if the pac ridge gets established we can rock 2003 style and aim stj waves at us with lots of cold around.  February still looks on track to me. Everyone knows I’ll say when I decide it doesn’t. 

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Are you still hoping jan 13 won’t be a cutter? (Serious question)

I think he is worried about the setup after. We do want more of the trough to slide east when it elongates or splits. We don’t want the stronger piece dumping west. That could set up another cutter. 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Shad said:

question for the pro's   according to the 12 ens runs, would you say suppression is a bigger risk than a cutter at this point?

Not a pro but imo it depends how the mlk weekend likely cutter system evolves.  If the TPV all dumps east suppression. If too much dumps west cutter.  Ideal would be a split where 75% comes east but it hangs some back to later swing under and become an amplified threat. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t think the stronger epo ridge on the euro is a coincidence. @Stormchaserchuck1 this is what I was talking about yesterday. Historically that epo should be good. But lately the more that ridge pumps instead of the downstream trough spreading east it digs more SW in response. It’s happened over and over and over. If that’s true we’re better off with the flatter gfs ridge there. 

I think the problem is that ridging extends down south into the PNA area. I've been studying EPO vs PNA, and they both happen a little further north in latitude than what you would expect. EPO is a little north of Alaska, and usually has a weak trough under it:

https://ibb.co/tc1329x

https://ibb.co/ZHHbxNm

Having more heights over Alaska is a good step, but it's still a fairly weak pattern, and the N. Pacific high is a little more firm too. I like the 16/17 of all the potential going forward.. I've found when the NAO is deeply negative then rises sharply to zero, it's hard for us to go that time period without at least seeing some snow (although it could be a dusting - 1"). I don't get the big deal about the pattern after that, PNA looks like it might go positive, but I've said before that, that should happen if/as the NAO goes +. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think the problem is that ridging extends down south into the PNA area. I've been studying EPO vs PNA, and they both happen a little further north in latitude than what you would expect. EPO is a little north of Alaska, and usually has a weak trough under it:

https://ibb.co/tc1329x

https://ibb.co/ZHHbxNm

Having more heights over Alaska is a good step, but it's still a fairly weak pattern, and the N. Pacific high is a little more firm too. I like the 16/17 of all the potential going forward.. I've found when the NAO is deeply negative then rises sharply to zero, it's hard for us to go that time period without at least seeing some snow (although it could be a dusting - 1"). I don't get the big deal about the pattern after that, PNA looks like it might go positive, but I've said before that, that should happen if/as the NAO goes +. 

You’re arguing semantics. You were upset the epo was fading but it wasn’t a helpful epo was my point. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Day 10 Euro has a 552dm block over the Davis Strait and the storm still cuts up and is rain.. as is the pattern, The Aleutians islands having a big ridge/block is overwhelming -NAO almost all the time since 18-19.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re arguing semantics. You were upset the epo was fading but it wasn’t a helpful epo was my point. 

I think the overall ridge is oriented a little too far south to really be a cold pattern. See how it's over the Bering Sea 

https://ibb.co/Fz2njZ0

That's -PNA territory

https://ibb.co/nDVv5jq

[jayyy]

Idk, maybe it’s just me but I’d almost prefer to see a SVA/NC snowstorm at this lead than a bullseye given this years trend of things coming well north once we hit day 4-5. Especially if the setup is a southern stream low tracking west to east along the boundary.

I know there’s a fear of suppression given the evolution at H5, but I’d rather take the possibility that the boundary is being depicted too far south / the block / 50-50 are being depicted a tad too strong over trying to thread the needle again.

Also, just a reminder for those feeling like debbing today after a disappointing outcome yesterday, that many of us live in the central DMV, where climo is roughly 20-30” per year. For the lowlands / 95 crew, that’s pretty much two solid storms or one biggie with a medium , etc. I know it feels like Deja vu and things are being punted, but backloaded winters (late Jan thru early march) are commonplace around these parts in a niño. Yes, we sometimes score an early season storm in niño heads, but we’ve also been shutout going into mid January before as well and ended up with a solid winter.

Just need to be a BIT more patient. It sucks, I get it, but our time will come. Going to be a rollercoaster to get there it appears, but we will see snow, and likely multiple snows in a relatively short span.


Big thanks to cape psu heisy Brooklyn terp & those tracking the LR and breaking it down for us.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think the overall ridge is oriented a little too far south to really be a cold pattern. See how it's over the Bering Straight 

https://ibb.co/Fz2njZ0

That's -PNA territory

Never mind 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Never mind 

I get what you're saying.. The Euro also trended colder at hr120. See how it's 75% more cold over the US, just holding that other 25% with more cutting from the storm system (timing). Usually +heights over or just north of Alaska is a cold trend, but not everything's perfect. 

 

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Day 10 Euro has a 552dm block over the Davis Straight and the storm still cuts up and is rain.. as is the pattern, The Aleutians islands having a big ridge/block is overwhelming -NAO almost all the time since 18-19.  

Thanks captain obvious. But a +nao isn’t exactly working either. Baltimore hasn’t had a 6” storm in 8 years!   So assuming I want a BIG snowstorm and not just try to get lucky with more progressive waves..what do I want?  With a +nao unless we get incredibly lucky with a well timed tpv rotation over the top there is nothing to suppress and prevent an amplified wave coming at us from the TN valley which is our big snow track. The only way we snow anymore is when we just get super lucky to have some progressive boundary wave take a perfect track by pure luck. What look to we want to give us a good chance for a legit Big snowstorm if you’re rooting against a -nao?  What other mechanism can work?  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks captain obvious. But a +nao isn’t exactly working either. Baltimore hasn’t had a 6” storm in 8 years!   So assuming I want a BIG snowstorm and not just try to get lucky with more progressive waves..what do I want?  With a +nao unless we get incredibly lucky with a well timed tpv rotation over the top there is nothing to suppress and prevent an amplified wave coming at us from the TN valley which is our big snow track. The only way we snow anymore is when we just get super lucky to have some progressive boundary wave take a perfect track by pure luck. What look to we want to give us a good chance for a legit Big snowstorm if you’re rooting against a -nao?  What other mechanism can work?  

I think the two snowy Winters of 13-14 and 14-15 both had big +NAO's. I just say let's see if it can sync up with +PNA, if it can, like 14-15 (which was an El Nino), maybe it will be a snowy pattern. We've been having a ridge hook up with Greenland/Davis Strait ridging, so maybe we can likewise extend a trough south from Greenland too? That's my guess.  It's an unmistakable pattern right now. 

I have to worry about Feb PNA though, because in the last 6 years we've had a mean of +150dm, which is even a few std's above enso. What a test for El Nino conditions coming up in the N. Pacific!