Buddy1987 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: @Heisy comparing the op to ensembles is tricky because the op will change from to run, sometimes so drastically that the next run may render your analysis moot. I’ve always been taught that op is more or less good for within 5-7 day lead time and to take with a grain of salt beyond that, only to compare differences or similarities to the ensembles. I like how Heisy remains polite about his opinion and gives some meteorological ideas and reasonings behind it as well. Great job to everyone providing insight and analysis in here. Always appreciated. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 [mention=8091]Heisy[/mention] comparing the op to ensembles is tricky because the op will change from to run, sometimes so drastically that the next run may render your analysis moot. I agree. Sometimes my ADHD makes it tough for me to explain things. Mind races a million mph lol Having a tough time getting my point across. Guess what I mean is there was a reason last nights 00z eps had such a paltry snow mean. It did get the lower heights to where we want them eventually, but there weren’t any good snow opportunities because of the western ridge and trough dump out west vs the GEFS/GFS camp that’s it. That’s all. Lol. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Heisy makes a really good point about interpreting 500mb height anomalies. It goes to the heart of why some people have a horrendously bad track record of identifying "promising patterns" over the past 2 winters. It's not just bad luck. Using height snapshots is risky. The details matter. Mean QPF distribution, mean 850mbs temps, and evolution of the height field are also important. But... I also agree there is reason for muted excitement for a significant storm from the 13th or so on. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I hope something pans out by the 20th, but at least one fly in the ointment is the MJO. Unfortunately, the EURO keeps trending toward a more amplified wave into 4 and 5 like the GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 hours ago, CAPE said: What's with all the focus on this? May not happen at all in Jan. Or this winter. Maybe the pattern does break down/relax for the end of the month. The pattern looks favorable for a week to 10 days and there should be opportunities during that period. Beyond that who knows. If you want to keep looking out to day 15 for hopium, the GEPS looks pretty darn good. It's my fault following the geese and looking for the one big storm that's one and done for this winter with the 20"+ storm then moving towards Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I hope something pans out by the 20th, but at least one fly in the ointment is the MJO. Unfortunately, the EURO keeps trending toward a more amplified wave into 4 and 5 like the GEFS. Can’t deny the trend, but it may progress fast enough to get to p7 by Jan 25-28 give or take. Then it’s game on for Feb. let’s hope we get an opportunity in between the 15th and 22nd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 55 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I still think the 13th ends up more near the coast or just inland. I'd feel better in CLE/BUF/PIT for that than I would ORD/DTW/MKE. If that goes more east it might also more effectively set up some sort of 50/50 than if it goes up through Wisconsin. The 0z Candian suggests this further east notion on the weekend storm something to keep an eye on after we see where the baroclinic zone sets up after our super soaker and damaging wind event on Tuesday into Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Can’t deny the trend, but it may progress fast enough to get to p7 by Jan 25-28 give or take. Then it’s game on for Feb. let’s hope we get an opportunity in between the 15th and 22nd LOL. Now on the verge of punting all of January? 4 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 18 minutes ago, Heisy said: I agree. Sometimes my ADHD makes it tough for me to explain things. Mind races a million mph lol Having a tough time getting my point across. Guess what I mean is there was a reason last nights 00z eps had such a paltry snow mean. It did get the lower heights to where we want them eventually, but there weren’t any good snow opportunities because of the western ridge and trough dump out west vs the GEFS/GFS camp that’s it. That’s all. Lol. . The modeled 'ground truth' isn't much different wrt precip amounts in the 15-18th window with colder air in place. 0z EPS looks a little better than the 0z GEFS. Snow mean? Ok if you want to use that as an indicator for that period, they look very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: LOL. Now on the verge of punting all of January? I didn’t say that. I said we have a window of opportunity Jan 15-20/22 before looking forward to Feb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12 minutes ago, osfan24 said: LOL. Now on the verge of punting all of January? Seriously…STFU with that in this thread. 4 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Everyone in this thread needs a nice massage and then a happy ending with 6” of snow. It’s mighty tense in here. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I agree with Heisys analysis of the 0z eps. It wasn’t what we want. There is a reason almost none of the members had snow near us or even south of us. They had amazing agreement and most progressed the way he laid out. But that doesn’t mean it’s right. It’s day 10 stuff and gfs geps were better. EPS prior runs were better. It could flip back today. But that one run in a vacuum wasn’t good. It was very close. But the key part to watch is when the TPV elongated or splits as most guidance hints after the cutters, we need the eastern extension of the trough to be deeper than whatever hangs back or dumps west. Remember when I said the lower heights in the 50/50 space are key. If you look at all the examples of our -pna wins what they all have in common is the heights to our northeast are lower than the heights in the west! The gefs of course just dumps 90% of the energy east and pops a western ridge. That’s better but actually could be too suppressive given the retrograding block and monster 50/50. Here’s the good news. That leaves us needing a compromise between the two as a best case and that’s actually historically the most likely solution. I know years ago ncep used to go with a 60/40 compromise between the eps gefs to draw up their long range guidance. 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 17 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Everyone in this thread needs a nice massage and then a happy ending with 6” of snow. It’s mighty tense in here. So creepy man. There’s trying to be sarcastic and then there’s creepy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 17 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Everyone in this thread needs a nice massage and then a happy ending with 6” of snow. It’s mighty tense in here. Coastal explosion 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree with Heisys analysis of the 0z eps. It wasn’t what we want. There is a reason almost none of the members had snow near us or even south of us. They had amazing agreement and most progressed the way he laid out. But that doesn’t mean it’s right. It’s day 10 stuff and gfs geps were better. EPS prior runs were better. It could flip back today. But that one run in a vacuum wasn’t good. It was very close. But the key part to watch is when the TPV elongated or splits as most guidance hints after the cutters, we need the eastern extension of the trough to be deeper than whatever hangs back or dumps west. Remember when I said the lower heights in the 50/50 space are key. If you look at all the examples of our -pna wins what they all have in common is the heights to our northeast are lower than the heights in the west! The gefs of course just dumps 90% of the energy east and pops a western ridge. That’s better but actually could be too suppressive given the retrograding block and monster 50/50. Here’s the good news. That leaves us needing a compromise between the two as a best case and that’s actually historically the most likely solution. I know years ago ncep used to go with a 60/40 compromise between the eps gefs to draw up their long range guidance. It wasn't what we want for what though? He seemed to be focusing on the period where there is a signal for a wave to track underneath with colder air in place centered on the 16-17th. The snow mean is modest on both models. Precip for that period is too (for our region), but actually a bit better on the EPS. It is mostly to our SE/offshore. You can see the possibility of suppression on both. Now if you/he are referring to where the pattern ends up beyond that (towards day 15) then yeah the GEFS look is better. Not really that much different though. The differences mostly have to do with how the EPS dumps more TPV energy out west at that point, which could be in error. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Some over analysis going on. At day 10 the general idea is the same. Have fun trying to glean more detail. There will be changes in later model cycles for that period. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 possible incoming on the GFS...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 8 minutes ago, Shad said: possible incoming on the GFS...... Decent snowstorm on Day 9 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, yoda said: Decent snowstorm on Day 9 We need that to be congrats Charlotte until day 4 lol. But in all seriousness I think the 15th - 25th Has alot of promise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 GEFS and GEPS are different, but are both very nice looks for snowfall to the coast. great patterns here, and both would offer higher end potential 5 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 the evolution on the GEPS is straight up classic 4 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Being very practical about it to keep my hopes in check. The chance of snow the next 7 days is slim to none. Let's see what the models are showing for the week of the 14th by next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: the evolution on the GEPS is straight up classic Help me out here - trying to learn when things are calm. I see a huge West-based block, low heights around the great lakes, and a 50-50ish low at the start. The block breaks down, and I've heard many say that we often score our bigs ones when blocking regimes relax. The low heights around the great lakes move East, but seem kinda far North to me. What should I be keying in on here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 We're going to have to get through a couple cutters next week. After that there chances. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the evolution on the GEPS is straight up classic 12z GEPS has probably the strongest signal so far for a storm in the 16-17th window. It's still there on the GEFS, but with at least 5 recent op runs depicting a MA snowstorm, you would think it would be a little more prominent. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, CAPE said: 12z GEPS has probably the strongest signal so far for a storm in the 16-17th window. It's still on the GEFS, but with with at least 5 recent op runs depicting a MA snowstorm, you would think it would be a little more prominent. 500mb looks good on the GEFS so I'm fine with it but yeah, that look on the GEPS would give us the 17th as well as a chance for a big dog when the block decays. that evolution fits the bill 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: Help me out here - trying to learn when things are calm. I see a huge West-based block, low heights around the great lakes, and a 50-50ish low at the start. The block breaks down, and I've heard many say that we often score our bigs ones when blocking regimes relax. The low heights around the great lakes move East, but seem kinda far North to me. What should I be keying in on here? the block decaying and the TPV moving towards the 50/50 region are the major factors 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12z GEPS for the 17th 6 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Active southern stream on the GEPS 20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the evolution on the GEPS is straight up classic and an active southern stream 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now