Heisy Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Look at the ensembles this far out not the op runs I am. If you follow the EPS heights, precip maps, and snow mean tonight it’s generally showing cutter on the 10th, cutter on the 13th, cutter 16-17th, then it dries out at the end of the run. Yea the heights look good but sometimes you have to see through the mean and look at what’s really going on. Where’s the snow on the eps? It’s not there because it’s showing 3 cutters and then cold and dry. I’m not saying it’s right, just showing what I’m seeing… and we have plenty of time for it to change 10th cutter 13th cutter 16th cutter Beyond that it’s cold but the precip/snow mean are paltry. Southern stream dries out and the brief PNA ridge gets pushed into central Conus for what looks like an end of pattern warm up. I know I’ll get bashed for this post, but whatever. Just my opinion on why the snow mean was so low tonight. Hopefully over next few days we see improved threats pop up in the 15th-22nd time frame. . 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Those are going to wrong way as well tho. no, they absolutely are not 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 using the 10th as a cutter to say that the pattern isn't great is disingenuous. that's been a cutter for like two weeks. the 13th does not look good at this latitude and hasn't for a while. the risk for anything larger is from the 15th to the 23rd or so, and the pattern still looks good for something using ensemble snow means is not the best way to go about analyzing if a pattern is favorable or not 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Looks like we had the deb tag team from Philly up in here lol 2 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: no, they absolutely are not I'm talking farther out there where the NAO flips positive. More long range vs mid range in fantasy land. Maybe the flip is where we get our Archambault. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 There has been a strong signal on the GFS op and GEFS for a wave tracking to our south with cold air in place for the 16-17th, and that continued on the 0z runs. EPS and GEPS have it too. As depicted cold is entrenched with the boundary to our south on the means. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 7 hours ago, adelphi_sky said: Don't go chasin' blizzards stick to the cold rain and sleet you're used to. Which is the same rain your used to! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm talking farther out there where the NAO flips positive. More long range vs mid range in fantasy land. Maybe the flip is where we get our Archambault. What's with all the focus on this? May not happen at all in Jan. Or this winter. Maybe the pattern does break down/relax for the end of the month. The pattern looks favorable for a week to 10 days and there should be opportunities during that period. Beyond that who knows. If you want to keep looking out to day 15 for hopium, the GEPS looks pretty darn good. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Another period to watch for a potential significant storm is around the 20th or a little beyond. PNA ridge, somewhat weaker west-based -NAO, low heights in the 50-50 region. Plenty cold enough as depicted. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 There seems to be a fixation on Archambault/KU with some here. Would a 6-10" storm be ok? Just asking. 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 As a side note the 6z gfs has an actual Clipper around the 19th. Just even seeing one modeled brings a tear to my eye. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Looks like we had the deb tag team from Philly up in here lol Once @Heisy wakes up and looks at the 06z gfs op it will perk him back up 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 If there is going to be a major/crippling east coast storm it probably occurs in Feb. Historically favored, plus the seasonal/extended tools have consistently indicated the pattern will be more conducive. The Nino overall should be weakening the second half of winter with less notable +sst anomalies in the eastern Pacific. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6z GEFS 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Once [mention=8091]Heisy[/mention] wakes up and looks at the 06z gfs op it will perk him back up My opinion, but we We want the GFS to be right on the ridge positioning/phasing the two shortwaves here…This progresses the trough east and creates the opportunities that the GFS shows down the line. Euro/cmc and even eps don’t do this at the moment. At least last night they didn’t.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 And you can see where that leads us down the line with the GFS phased scenario vs unphased. Euro just dumps the N/S out west which is a killer for us as usual . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 if you can look at these and be anything but at least a little excited, not sure what to say 5 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: if you can look at these and be anything but at least a little excited, not sure what to say He is like Ji. Doesn't know ensemble guidance exists/ what the purpose is. Live and die with those op runs at long leads. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 He is like Ji. Doesn't know ensemble guidance exists/ what the purpose is. Live and die with those op runs at long leads.He just needs to google ensembles 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 14 hours ago, cbmclean said: I know you are currently frolicking in VT, but any idea if you got any on MT PsU today? Not much based on my cam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: using the 10th as a cutter to say that the pattern isn't great is disingenuous. that's been a cutter for like two weeks. the 13th does not look good at this latitude and hasn't for a while. the risk for anything larger is from the 15th to the 23rd or so, and the pattern still looks good for something using ensemble snow means is not the best way to go about analyzing if a pattern is favorable or not That’s the time frame I’m keeping an eye on. 15-20 or so and yes @CAPE I’d be all over a 6-10” event. If we get that in January, and another storm in Feb, that could put us at climo or above. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not much based on my cam Just under an inch. Never could get any decent rates sustained. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 End of 6z EPS has that N western conus lobe farther E vs 00z, ridge slightly farther E so that’s a step in positive direction. We gotta keep this crap from dumping out west as much as possible . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Heisy said: End of 6z EPS has that N western conus lobe farther E vs 00z, ridge slightly farther E so that’s a step in positive direction. We gotta keep this crap from dumping out west as much as possible . I still think the 13th ends up more near the coast or just inland. I'd feel better in CLE/BUF/PIT for that than I would ORD/DTW/MKE. If that goes more east it might also more effectively set up some sort of 50/50 than if it goes up through Wisconsin. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 49 minutes ago, CAPE said: He is like Ji. Doesn't know ensemble guidance exists/ what the purpose is. Live and die with those op runs at long leads. OP runs are like that nice looking date until they open their mouth and you smell the breath 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 7 minutes ago, Solution Man said: OP runs are like that nice looking date until they open their mouth and you smell the breath TMI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 He is like Ji. Doesn't know ensemble guidance exists/ what the purpose is. Live and die with those op runs at long leads.I absolutely don’t man. While it wasn’t terrible I don’t agree that last nights 00 EPS was a great run if you read between the lines and see what was actually going on. It got the lower heights to our region but with 2 cutters 13th-16th which also left us in probably a not so snow friendly pattern afterwards. You absolutely can and should use the OPs in comparison with the ensembles to get an idea of what the smoothed out height lines on the ensembles mean. Let’s compare the 00z eps vs the OP at 186 hours.. They both handle the 13th wave pretty similarly, it’s parked over SE Canada at 186 hours. Look at the EPS vs OP at this point out west. There’s a little battle going on it seems on the EPS between some OP like members and some that move the western trough a bit farther E. You dump too much energy out west and this ridge here will be stronger obviously You bring it eastward you get a more GFS like solution which gives us a chance at something around 16-17th. Here is last nights EPS vs 6z GEFS. Spot the difference? Finally EPS developed a ridge but it’s a bit too far E, this looks like a cold/dry/suppression time period before pattern ends if this were to be right. Good news there’s plenty of time for the EPS to evolve. TL/DR I like the GEFS a lot better for us vs last night’s EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 missing the forest for the trees 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 @Heisy comparing the op to ensembles is tricky because the op will change from to run, sometimes so drastically that the next run may render your analysis moot. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Ensembles are for insuring the OP isn't out to lunch not vice - Versa lol. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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