Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[CAPE]

There has been a strong signal on the GFS op and GEFS for a wave tracking to our south with cold air in place for the 16-17th, and that continued on the 0z runs. EPS and GEPS have it too. As depicted cold is entrenched with the boundary to our south on the means.

 

[winter_warlock]

7 hours ago, adelphi_sky said:

Don't go chasin' blizzards stick to the cold rain and sleet you're used to.

Which is the same rain your used to!

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm talking farther out there where the NAO flips positive. More long range vs mid range in fantasy land. Maybe the flip is where we get our Archambault.

What's with all the focus on this? May not happen at all in Jan. Or this winter. Maybe the pattern does break down/relax for the end of the month. The pattern looks favorable for a week to 10 days and there should be opportunities during that period. Beyond that who knows. If you want to keep looking out to day 15 for hopium, the GEPS looks pretty darn good.

[CAPE]

Another period to watch for a potential significant storm is around the 20th or a little beyond. PNA ridge, somewhat weaker west-based -NAO, low heights in the 50-50 region. Plenty cold enough as depicted.

[CAPE]

There seems to be a fixation on Archambault/KU with some here. Would a 6-10" storm be ok? Just asking.

[Ralph Wiggum]

As a side note the 6z gfs has an actual Clipper around the 19th. Just even seeing one modeled brings a tear to my eye.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Looks like we had the deb tag team from Philly up in here lol

Once @Heisy wakes up and looks at the 06z gfs op it will perk him back up 

[CAPE]

If there is going to be a major/crippling east coast storm it probably occurs in Feb. Historically favored, plus the seasonal/extended tools have consistently indicated the pattern will be more conducive. The Nino overall should be weakening the second half of winter with less notable +sst anomalies in the eastern Pacific.

[CAPE]

6z GEFS

[Heisy]

Once [mention=8091]Heisy[/mention] wakes up and looks at the 06z gfs op it will perk him back up 

My opinion, but we We want the GFS to be right on the ridge positioning/phasing the two shortwaves here…

This progresses the trough east and creates the opportunities that the GFS shows down the line. Euro/cmc and even eps don’t do this at the moment. At least last night they didn’t.





.

[Heisy]

And you can see where that leads us down the line with the GFS phased scenario vs unphased. Euro just dumps the N/S out west which is a killer for us as usual



.

[brooklynwx99]

if you can look at these and be anything but at least a little excited, not sure what to say

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if you can look at these and be anything but at least a little excited, not sure what to say

He is like Ji. Doesn't know ensemble guidance exists/ what the purpose is. Live and die with those op runs at long leads.

[Ji]

He is like Ji. Doesn't know ensemble guidance exists/ what the purpose is. Live and die with those op runs at long leads.

He just needs to google ensembles

[psuhoffman]

14 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I know you are currently frolicking in VT, but any idea if you got any on MT PsU today?

Not much based on my cam 

[Terpeast]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

using the 10th as a cutter to say that the pattern isn't great is disingenuous. that's been a cutter for like two weeks. the 13th does not look good at this latitude and hasn't for a while. the risk for anything larger is from the 15th to the 23rd or so, and the pattern still looks good for something

using ensemble snow means is not the best way to go about analyzing if a pattern is favorable or not

That’s the time frame I’m keeping an eye on. 15-20 or so

and yes @CAPE I’d be all over a 6-10” event. If we get that in January, and another storm in Feb, that could put us at climo or above. 

[HighStakes]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not much based on my cam 

Just under an inch. Never could get any decent rates sustained.

[Heisy]

End of 6z EPS has that N western conus lobe farther E vs 00z, ridge slightly farther E so that’s a step in positive direction. We gotta keep this crap from dumping out west as much as possible


.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

End of 6z EPS has that N western conus lobe farther E vs 00z, ridge slightly farther E so that’s a step in positive direction. We gotta keep this crap from dumping out west as much as possible


.

I still think the 13th ends up more near the coast or just inland.  I'd feel better in CLE/BUF/PIT for that than I would ORD/DTW/MKE.  If that goes more east it might also more effectively set up some sort of 50/50 than if it goes up through Wisconsin.

[Solution Man]

49 minutes ago, CAPE said:

He is like Ji. Doesn't know ensemble guidance exists/ what the purpose is. Live and die with those op runs at long leads.

OP runs are like that nice looking date until they open their mouth and you smell the breath 

[WinterWxLuvr]

7 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

OP runs are like that nice looking date until they open their mouth and you smell the breath 

TMI

[Heisy]

He is like Ji. Doesn't know ensemble guidance exists/ what the purpose is. Live and die with those op runs at long leads.

I absolutely don’t man. While it wasn’t terrible I don’t agree that last nights 00 EPS was a great run if you read between the lines and see what was actually going on. It got the lower heights to our region but with 2 cutters 13th-16th which also left us in probably a not so snow friendly pattern afterwards. You absolutely can and should use the OPs in comparison with the ensembles to get an idea of what the smoothed out height lines on the ensembles mean.

Let’s compare the 00z eps vs the OP at 186 hours..


They both handle the 13th wave pretty similarly, it’s parked over SE Canada at 186 hours. Look at the EPS vs OP at this point out west. There’s a little battle going on it seems on the EPS between some OP like members and some that move the western trough a bit farther E.

You dump too much energy out west and this ridge here will be stronger obviously



You bring it eastward you get a more GFS like solution which gives us a chance at something around 16-17th.



Here is last nights EPS vs 6z GEFS. Spot the difference?



Finally EPS developed a ridge but it’s a bit too far E, this looks like a cold/dry/suppression time period before pattern ends if this were to be right. Good news there’s plenty of time for the EPS to evolve.







TL/DR I like the GEFS a lot better for us vs last night’s EPS


.

[brooklynwx99]

missing the forest for the trees

[Terpeast]

@Heisy comparing the op to ensembles is tricky because the op will change from to run, sometimes so drastically that the next run may render your analysis moot. 

[Chris78]

Ensembles are for insuring the OP isn't out to lunch not vice - Versa lol.

 

[Buddy1987]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

@Heisy comparing the op to ensembles is tricky because the op will change from to run, sometimes so drastically that the next run may render your analysis moot. 

I’ve always been taught that op is more or less good for within 5-7 day lead time and to take with a grain of salt beyond that, only to compare differences or similarities to the ensembles. I like how Heisy remains polite about his opinion and gives some meteorological ideas and reasonings behind it as well. Great job to everyone providing insight and analysis in here. Always appreciated.  

[Heisy]

[mention=8091]Heisy[/mention] comparing the op to ensembles is tricky because the op will change from to run, sometimes so drastically that the next run may render your analysis moot. 

I agree. Sometimes my ADHD makes it tough for me to explain things. Mind races a million mph lol Having a tough time getting my point across. Guess what I mean is there was a reason last nights 00z eps had such a paltry snow mean. It did get the lower heights to where we want them eventually, but there weren’t any good snow opportunities because of the western ridge and trough dump out west vs the GEFS/GFS camp that’s it. That’s all. Lol.




.

[eduggs]

Heisy makes a really good point about interpreting 500mb height anomalies. It goes to the heart of why some people have a horrendously bad track record of identifying "promising patterns" over the past 2 winters. It's not just bad luck. Using height snapshots is risky. The details matter. Mean QPF distribution, mean 850mbs temps, and evolution of the height field are also important.

But... I also agree there is reason for muted excitement for a significant storm from the 13th or so on. 

[Weather Will]

I hope something pans out by the 20th, but at least one fly in the ointment is the MJO.  Unfortunately, the EURO keeps trending toward a more amplified wave into 4 and 5 like the GEFS.

[Kevin Reilly]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

What's with all the focus on this? May not happen at all in Jan. Or this winter. Maybe the pattern does break down/relax for the end of the month. The pattern looks favorable for a week to 10 days and there should be opportunities during that period. Beyond that who knows. If you want to keep looking out to day 15 for hopium, the GEPS looks pretty darn good.

It's my fault following the geese and looking for the one big storm that's one and done for this winter with the 20"+ storm then moving towards Spring.