Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[JenkinsJinkies]

CWG hasn't given up yet

https://archive.is/6Gvcv

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I was comparing 12z eps with 18z gefs but didn’t scroll an extra day to the end of the gefs run. That extra progression is for the worse, yeah. I hope it’s on an island and that the eps/geps are more correct

It’s all part of Chucks master plan.  About a week back he said the SER would pop. Someone asked if the SE had moved.  Damn it Chuck!  Damn it to hell.  

[raindancewx]

One of my pet theories from the volcano is that a lot of would be snow events became rain or mix events because the marginal boundary level stuff that would work in a lot of barely cold enough storms now has too much moisture/heat from the higher dew points globally. 

A lot of Nor'easters have some kind of warm nose, or warm mid-layer boundary that prevents an event from staying all snow or even all sleet/snow.

I think that's part of what happened in 1994-95, which was after Pinatubo, but during a period when all the aerosol material had fallen out of the sky, while the heat enhancing crap remained.

I'm sure there will be plenty of pretty good storm tracks later in the year, with setups that would have 32F ish temps at the surface, but I'm not sure they'll work this year.

[clskinsfan]

Just now, raindancewx said:

One of my pet theories from the volcano

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

One of my pet theories from the volcano...

I think that's part of what happened in 1994-95, which was after Pinatubo

Hunga Tonga was mostly water vapor, Pinatubo was mostly ash.

Apples to oranges.

[psuhoffman]

Again I need to preface this by saying I think it’s wrong. But I want to clarify the reason I say it’s “game over” in the off chance that’s how it goes. 
 

I’ve been relying on a historical progression in a -pdo Nino with blocking. I got to that expectation by factoring in several variable to conclude the most likely result was a winter with blocking episodes combined with the current enso and PDO state. That progression has a historical pattern. So far we’ve been following that pattern. The way we’ve failed is very similar to past seasons that turned out good. 
 

What the gfs is doing breaks that progression. It drops its back over its knees and then performs a suplex pile drive to it before breaking a chair over its unconscious body. 
 

That is NOT how the pattern gets anywhere good. It’s a regression to the same base state that’s dominated. Frankly it’s not even similar to the “bad” ninos. It’s worse!  And the gfs isn’t implying it’s a temporary thing it’s retracting the jet completely and building the same pacific death ridge we’ve had for 8 years!  
 

This look familiar….

It’s the mean long wave pattern of the last 7 winters! 
Look at the GEFS… 

We do not want to F with that. I have no interest in playing that game anymore.   So in the event the gefs scored the coup here it’s over. That means even a strong bordering on super Nino wasn’t enough to alter the pacific base state some have been blaming on the numerous Ninas. 
 

I think it’s wrong. It flies against all historical precedent. It’s in disagreement with the better ensemble guidance. It’s just 2 runs. So let’s just hope it’s wrong. Because if not its not the answer I wanted to my question. 

[snowfan]

42 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Is that not a typical Niño year around here anyways?

Historically, El Niño winters result in above average snowfall ~50% of the time for the major reporting stations in the DMV. A boom winter isn’t a given despite what you may read. Even some moderate to strong Ninos result in crap winters, but we all drool over the thoughts of an 09/10 repeat, which was a moderate Nino. 

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It drops its back over its knees and then performs a suplex pile drive to it before breaking a chair over its unconscious body. 

Holy shit!!! Bwaahahahahha!

[jayyy]

I was exaggerating…I just don’t get the doom and gloom at December 28.  Yes it sucks we haven’t had an area wide storm yet but I remain confident we’ll get snow this winter.  We are literally a week into actual winter, lol.  

Exactly!

Sure… we have seen *some* December snow over the past decade+ (not much in the grand scheme of things ) but we’ve also been dealing with the combination of a -PDO cycle and a niña / neutral ENSO state for the better part of the last 7+ years. The years we got a niño? We saw an absolutely epic storm in 16 and we all know what happened in 09-10 and 14-15. People are acting like we’ve had a string of winters with favorable ENSO / H5 and we’ve struck out. We haven’t had any of those as of late. And I’m not talking about temporary 1-2 week periods in the middle of a shit longpattern / niña where things “used to be workable sometimes”. The fact that we didn’t see snow in the middle of a shit sandwich isn’t surprising or earthshattering. We got unlucky… it happens. And yes, some extra warmth probably didn’t help our cause.

I will not simply ignore the base state / PAC problem we’ve had the past 7 years and say well, guess we’re fucked forever since it hasn’t snowed before January 1st when we are finally back in a more favorable base state. It’s undeniable that these marginal setups early on in the season have become harder to cash in on due the giant elephant in the room.. but it’s absolute horseshit that we can’t snow or that we can’t see winters with AN snowfall anymore.

Perhaps it does take longer for Maritime PAC puke to get routed out these days and it’s not as easy for us to go from 50 to 33 and snow, but that doesn’t mean we are done for entirely. It can be true that we see fewer marginal snowstorms and epic winters going forward, but also true that we can still manage them with a few extra factors working in our favor.

There is so much speculation going on in these threads, it’s astonishing. I know it’s really hard not to be impatient with how miserable it’s been the past 7 years.. I am just as antsy for snow as the next snow weenie… but folks really need to get it together. Crying about it never snowing again one minute and then jumping for joy at digital blue on a 384 hour OP run of the GFS the next is no way to live. Perhaps some folks need to step back from the models for a week or two and come back when they’re ready to be levelheaded about it.

Historically speaking, our best climo for snow is January 15th to march 2nd or so. Most Niños also align with this timeframe. Let’s all chill out and see how the chips end up falling. Freaking out for no reason does absolutely nothing except keep awesome posters and Mets away from our sub. It certainly doesn’t make it snow.

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Again I need to preface this by saying I think it’s wrong. But I want to clarify the reason I say it’s “game over” in the off chance that’s how it goes. 
 

I’ve been relying on a historical progression in a -pdo Nino with blocking. I got to that expectation by factoring in several variable to conclude the most likely result was a winter with blocking episodes combined with the current enso and PDO state. That progression has a historical pattern. So far we’ve been following that pattern. The way we’ve failed is very similar to past seasons that turned out good. 
 

What the gfs is doing breaks that progression. It drops its back over its knees and then performs a suplex pile drive to it before breaking a chair over its unconscious body. 
 

That is NOT how the pattern gets anywhere good. It’s a regression to the same base state that’s dominated. Frankly it’s not even similar to the “bad” ninos. It’s worse!  And the gfs isn’t implying it’s a temporary thing it’s retracting the jet completely and building the same pacific death ridge we’ve had for 8 years!  
 

This look familiar….

It’s the mean long wave pattern of the last 7 winters! 
Look at the GEFS… 

We do not want to F with that. I have no interest in playing that game anymore.   So in the event the gefs scored the coup here it’s over. That means even a strong bordering on super Nino wasn’t enough to alter the pacific base state some have been blaming on the numerous Ninas. 
 

I think it’s wrong. It flies against all historical precedent. It’s in disagreement with the better ensemble guidance. It’s just 2 runs. So let’s just hope it’s wrong. Because if not its not the answer I wanted to my question. 

We better hope the hell it's wrong. Looking at another snowless winter if it's on to something.

[Kevin Reilly]

49 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont care about snowcover...i like it while its snowing but the day after...i dont care that much about it. I like the day its snowing and the days leading up to the storm where your imagination can go wild. after the storm....is just depressing for me

Nino: Let's just throw 3 inches of rain on top of your 20" of snow because that may be reality truly this winter!  I would think that would cause some issues for the Mid Atlantic.

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Nino: Let's just throw 3 inches of rain on top of your 20" of snow because that may be reality truly this winter!  I would think that would cause some issues for the Mid Atlantic.

You think 20 inches of snow might be reality this winter????

[CAPE]

27 minutes ago, Ji said:

i need Zay flowers to play and Lamar to stop giving Gus 1 yard Td runs. My other fantasy life depends on it

Yeah Lamar should have at least 5 more TD passes/runs

[EastCoast NPZ]

49 minutes ago, Ji said:

yep...hopefully you can recover from realizing this. I will one up you though...i hate sunny days with a passion. Sun depression. Clouds energizes me. I dont think anyone can match that lol

I can

[psuhoffman]

The good news is I think in the future we will get more above avg snowfall winters. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

….because at this rate eventually our average will be like 4”. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The good news is I think in the future we will get more above avg snowfall winters. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

….because at this rate eventually our average will be like 4”. 

So if this year does somehow end up being a repeat of last year how will that factor into your predictions based on when your area gets its first inch of snow. (Like you said that if you get to Dec 10 and there hasn't been an inch recorded at your location the odds of a blockbuster winter begin to drop and that if you reach late Dec without receiving an inch then it'll most likely be a non-winter)

Because this year you got your first accumulation (4 inches) right around the time your correlated blockbuster odds decrease and now you're up to 6 inches after some snow you got about a week later.

In fact when the futility thread got bumped last year you pointed out that the top 5 years listed were also the ones where your area received no snow at all by New Year's.

[Ji]

this winter over thing is going to be a yearly thing because apparently we will never reach January with any kind of snow on the ground...and once January first hits...we have a 6 week window for snow..before temps rise to average of 50 and Ians sun angle. Of those 6 weeks...1 is always dedicated to the january thaw and 2 are dedicated to cold and dry.....

[87storms]

That’s it, I’m quitting this hobby until the 0z gfs.

[Ji]

sidenote: Joe Flaco---omg

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The good news is the majority of analogs show that the pattern usually changes shortly thereafter (referring to the N. Pacific ridge Jan 5-13).  

I took all -PNA in El Nino or Neutral years and minus all +PNA in La Nina or Neutral years since 1948 for that time, and came up with 15 analogs. 

The roll-forward shows the Pacific pattern usually flips quickly after 1/14.  By 1/19 it's +PNA. And by 1/25 it's -EPO.

https://ibb.co/xzVYnx5

So ENSO-weighted analogs show that the N. Pacific pattern we are seeing on LR models is a temporary, and not permanent feature. 

Here are US Temps in the roll forward:

https://ibb.co/kGL4bZp

[Solution Man]

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The good news is my analogs show that the pattern usually changes shortly thereafter (referring to the N. Pacific ridge Jan 5-13).  

I took all -PNA in El Nino or Neutral years and minus all +PNA in La Nina or Neutral years since 1948, and came up with 15 analogs. 

The roll-forward shows the Pacific pattern usually flips quickly after 1/14.  By 1/19 it's +PNA. And by 1/25 it's -EPO.

https://ibb.co/xzVYnx5

So ENSO-weighted analogs show that the N. Pacific pattern we are seeing on LR models is a temporary, and not permanent feature. 

 

Translated: favorable conditions for snow are possible in the coming weeks

[clskinsfan]

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

sidenote: Joe Flaco---omg

Coulda been the Redskins errrr Washington football team errrr...Commanders QB...Whatever..

[psuhoffman]

55 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So if this year does somehow end up being a repeat of last year how will that factor into your predictions based on when your area gets its first inch of snow. (Like you said that if you get to Dec 10 and there hasn't been an inch recorded at your location the odds of a blockbuster winter begin to drop and that if you reach late Dec without receiving an inch then it'll most likely be a non-winter)

Because this year you got your first accumulation (4 inches) right around the time your correlated blockbuster odds decrease and now you're up to 6 inches after some snow you got about a week later.

In fact when the futility thread got bumped last year you pointed out that the top 5 years listed were also the ones where your area received no snow at all by New Year's.

Let’s hope I don’t have to do that math. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Hunga Tonga was mostly water vapor, Pinatubo was mostly ash.

Apples to oranges.

Yeah even from a layman perspective, I'm not sure why some are comparing the two as if they're similar. Wouldn't any comparison to ash/sulfur eruptions of the past be irrelevant because we're dealing with water vapor instead?

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Let’s hope I don’t have to do that math. 

If things don't work out and this is it (we don't know that yet of course), I wanna know why it happened so quickly. Like something just flips on a dime in 2016...that doesn't make sense to me. Somebody needs to study that year...To see such a precipitous drop, it had to be a catalyst somewhere, right?

[Kevin Reilly]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If things don't work out and this is it (we don't know that yet of course), I wanna know why it happened so quickly. Like something just flips on a dime in 2016...that doesn't make sense to me. Somebody needs to study that year...To see such a precipitous drop, it had to be a catalyst somewhere, right?

Might want to take a look at 2009-2010 too to see exactly what was going on in that winter since it is an outlier over the past 20 years at this point.  I mean 2009-2010 things were set up perfectly and held off an on for 3 months. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Kevin Reilly said:

Might want to take a look at 2009-2010 too to see exactly what was going on in that winter since it is an outlier over the past 20 years at this point.  I mean 2009-2010 things were set up perfectly and held off an on for 3 months. 

But wait...how does that compare to this? It was an epic outlier--but it didn't exactly set off a 7-year heater (though 2009-2016 did have some great years obviously). This is different: 2016 happened, the boom: a precipitous drop. Not gradual...but sharp!

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If things don't work out and this is it (we don't know that yet of course), I wanna know why it happened so quickly. Like something just flips on a dime in 2016...that doesn't make sense to me. Somebody needs to study that year...To see such a precipitous drop, it had to be a catalyst somewhere, right?

Perhaps it could still be the luck thing (solely for this year though, not the whole 7 year period). I mean there is a nonzero chance of all the good stuff missing by sheer happenstance.

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Might want to take a look at 2009-2010 too to see exactly what was going on in that winter since it is an outlier over the past 20 years at this point.  I mean 2009-2010 things were set up perfectly and held off an on for 3 months. 

Honestly we just got lucky that season. Really no other way to state it. Historic is what it is. Historic means lucky. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Again I need to preface this by saying I think it’s wrong. But I want to clarify the reason I say it’s “game over” in the off chance that’s how it goes. 
 

I’ve been relying on a historical progression in a -pdo Nino with blocking. I got to that expectation by factoring in several variable to conclude the most likely result was a winter with blocking episodes combined with the current enso and PDO state. That progression has a historical pattern. So far we’ve been following that pattern. The way we’ve failed is very similar to past seasons that turned out good. 
 

What the gfs is doing breaks that progression. It drops its back over its knees and then performs a suplex pile drive to it before breaking a chair over its unconscious body. 
 

That is NOT how the pattern gets anywhere good. It’s a regression to the same base state that’s dominated. Frankly it’s not even similar to the “bad” ninos. It’s worse!  And the gfs isn’t implying it’s a temporary thing it’s retracting the jet completely and building the same pacific death ridge we’ve had for 8 years!  
 

This look familiar….

It’s the mean long wave pattern of the last 7 winters! 
Look at the GEFS… 

We do not want to F with that. I have no interest in playing that game anymore.   So in the event the gefs scored the coup here it’s over. That means even a strong bordering on super Nino wasn’t enough to alter the pacific base state some have been blaming on the numerous Ninas. 
 

I think it’s wrong. It flies against all historical precedent. It’s in disagreement with the better ensemble guidance. It’s just 2 runs. So let’s just hope it’s wrong. Because if not its not the answer I wanted to my question. 

So basically, the pattern progression the next few weeks is gonna have huge implications for the future. Will be watching ensembles closely (and a bit nervously given what it could mean). Man I hope the GEFS is wrong!