SnowenOutThere Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I think Ohio deserves 3 blizzards in a week so I’m good with this solution I mean they do live in Ohio so they probably need it more than us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6 minutes ago, Ji said: i mean its not a huge difference.....that far out. Ive seen worse tracks than the 12z. Seems like a slight change could make it much more favorable. Lets see what ensembles say after i google them There were some key details that made that 0z run work. The TPV was elongated to the east as a lobe rotated around which compressed the flow some out ahead. Also, it split the energy of the trough diving underneath the TPV and had a trailing SW kicking the system east more. Those 2 little fluke details are what made it work because the trough axis is actually NOT good and the favored look for an amplified wave would be to cut too far west for us. And those little weird details are not something guidance could possibly get right from that range anyways. That's why I said this is not something I would feel optimistic in until very short leads. WIth the TPV there we would need some discreet details to break out way to mitigate the unfavorable trough axis with not enough confluence to our northeast . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 11 minutes ago, Ji said: lol the Low pressure is in the exact same place from 00z to 12z....we just lost all the 14 inches and get ice instead. What a terrible place we live YOU get ice, I get a nice chilly rain. It's frustrating, but we gotta hang in there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Hey at least one thing is pretty certain, it’s gonna get damn cold for a few days after that front clears . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Current mood: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6 minutes ago, Heisy said: Hey at least one thing is pretty certain, it’s gonna get damn cold for a few days after that front clears . JB winter forecast verified!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6 minutes ago, Heisy said: Hey at least one thing is pretty certain, it’s gonna get damn cold for a few days after that front clears . Congrats Tombo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Why is it when these things shift warmer 10 days out it never shifts back to snow despite there being plenty of time for models to change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: JB winter forecast verified!! Winter 2023/24 - "it got DAMN COLD for a few days there" 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Why is it when these things shift warmer 10 days out it never shifts back to snow despite there being plenty of time for models to change? Once you go bla…. rain, you don’t go back. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 It's almost as if we need the exact elements that caused the Big Bang to align perfectly again to get a snowstorm here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Why is it when these things shift warmer 10 days out it never shifts back to snow despite there being plenty of time for models to change? It could be a conspiracy by Bill Gates, but more likely they were wrong to begin with.. Day 15 forecasts aren't exactly in their wheelhouse, let alone day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 8 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Why is it when these things shift warmer 10 days out it never shifts back to snow despite there being plenty of time for models to change? Ji said that years ago. Along with "always go with least snowy model" "rainstorms always over perform" "winter is over (In December)" and "we suck"...that last one is my favorite. Actually over the years they prove correct..wise man he is 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 EPS dosent seem to have a strong signal but looks more suppressed than cutter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 39 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Ok, the SLP position is fine, but I don't love the lack of a high to the north. It opens up for a cutter or app runner Yeah, 970s mb low in the Hudson Bay with no High around it could make for a warmer pattern even if the track is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 EPS is way more favorable than the OP with lower heights in SE Canada 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 also has a favorable setup similar to the other ensembles as the blocking decays. southern stream wave slips under the PNA ridge with a 50/50 in place 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is way more favorable than the OP with lower heights in SE Canada The main fail on the op was the amplifying ridge out west allowed involvement of a significant piece of that NS vorticity ribbon, which amplified the wave too much. 12z EPS looks slightly better than 0z, but still seems to favor frozen to our NW. The 12z GEFS was solid for our area. Not seeing much in the way of suppression on the members of either model, which is a tad worrisome at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12z 1-16, Euro gives the Central Valley .50" of new ice with a surface temp. of 24 degrees. Welcome to the skating rink!! 850 temps have dropped from +4 to - 9 in 6 hrs! Temps. fall all day to 12 by 7 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is way more favorable than the OP with lower heights in SE Canada That kinda just looks like what an ensemble at that range would look like smoothed v an op showing the same general thing. Yet mixed within that mean there are likely some better solutions...but it has all the main features centered in the same location and that TPV is still west of where we need it to give us a high probability for a snowstorm here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 52 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Why is it when these things shift warmer 10 days out it never shifts back to snow despite there being plenty of time for models to change? Because the human brain is hardwired for negativity and that's what you end up remembering more often than not. Shifts in the other direction happen too. Being positive takes work There's also inherent cold bias in the long range afaik Your best bet would be to stop paying attention to D7+ model output 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, psuhoffman said: That kinda just looks like what an ensemble at that range would look like smoothed v an op showing the same general thing. Yet mixed within that mean there are likely some better solutions...but it has all the main features centered in the same location and that TPV is still west of where we need it to give us a high probability for a snowstorm here. Snow Mean has jumped way up for the Ohio valley for the 3rd wave. I would like to see that type Increase in our areas. Still a good amount of idv that have nothing for the dc-nyc corridor out 360 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That kinda just looks like what an ensemble at that range would look like smoothed v an op showing the same general thing. Yet mixed within that mean there are likely some better solutions...but it has all the main features centered in the same location and that TPV is still west of where we need it to give us a high probability for a snowstorm here. This is my general takeaway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 https://x.com/raleighwx/status/1744450899781541952?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A I’m sure by tomorrow this will be totally gone from a possibility but today let’s be optimistic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 @stormtracker start a new thread. Time to get serious 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: @stormtracker start a new thread. Time to get serious keep the thread. We have started 85 new threads since 2017 and it still dosent snow 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 hours ago, stormtracker said: Yep. Euro went from sugar to shit in 12 hours. what else is new. Congrats Arkansas Ra**y it gotten too hard. I would not miss like I did last one pre 2012. And it’s happened too much in last 12 years. Reliable enso the NAO and AO are not the predictors they once were. Solid cold air now moves out in a heartbeat. Planetary changes. What I accumulated from 1965 to 2012 does not prevail anymore Makes me assess interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Pretty much all the runs that have snowed on us have had limited NS interaction with our shortwave of interest, esp early on. That's the main thang to watch on HH run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 And everybody drink! 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, CAPE said: And everybody drink! I am sipping on a Natural Ice right now. Whats your pleasure? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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