Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[jayyy]

Idk, maybe it’s just me but I’d almost prefer to see a SVA/NC snowstorm at this lead than a bullseye given this years trend of things coming well north once we hit day 4-5. Especially if the setup is a southern stream low tracking west to east along the boundary.

I know there’s a fear of suppression given the evolution at H5, but I’d rather take the possibility that the boundary is being depicted too far south / the block / 50-50 are being depicted a tad too strong over trying to thread the needle again.

Also, just a reminder for those feeling like debbing today after a disappointing outcome yesterday, that many of us live in the central DMV, where climo is roughly 20-30” per year. For the lowlands / 95 crew, that’s pretty much two solid storms or one biggie with a medium , etc. I know it feels like Deja vu and things are being punted, but backloaded winters (late Jan thru early march) are commonplace around these parts in a niño. Yes, we sometimes score an early season storm in niño heads, but we’ve also been shutout going into mid January before as well and ended up with a solid winter.

Just need to be a BIT more patient. It sucks, I get it, but our time will come. Going to be a rollercoaster to get there it appears, but we will see snow, and likely multiple snows in a relatively short span.


Big thanks to cape psu heisy Brooklyn terp & those tracking the LR and breaking it down for us.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think the overall ridge is oriented a little too far south to really be a cold pattern. See how it's over the Bering Straight 

https://ibb.co/Fz2njZ0

That's -PNA territory

Never mind 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Never mind 

I get what you're saying.. The Euro also trended colder at hr120. See how it's 75% more cold over the US, just holding that other 25% with more cutting from the storm system (timing). Usually +heights over or just north of Alaska is a cold trend, but not everything's perfect. 

 

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Day 10 Euro has a 552dm block over the Davis Straight and the storm still cuts up and is rain.. as is the pattern, The Aleutians islands having a big ridge/block is overwhelming -NAO almost all the time since 18-19.  

Thanks captain obvious. But a +nao isn’t exactly working either. Baltimore hasn’t had a 6” storm in 8 years!   So assuming I want a BIG snowstorm and not just try to get lucky with more progressive waves..what do I want?  With a +nao unless we get incredibly lucky with a well timed tpv rotation over the top there is nothing to suppress and prevent an amplified wave coming at us from the TN valley which is our big snow track. The only way we snow anymore is when we just get super lucky to have some progressive boundary wave take a perfect track by pure luck. What look to we want to give us a good chance for a legit Big snowstorm if you’re rooting against a -nao?  What other mechanism can work?  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks captain obvious. But a +nao isn’t exactly working either. Baltimore hasn’t had a 6” storm in 8 years!   So assuming I want a BIG snowstorm and not just try to get lucky with more progressive waves..what do I want?  With a +nao unless we get incredibly lucky with a well timed tpv rotation over the top there is nothing to suppress and prevent an amplified wave coming at us from the TN valley which is our big snow track. The only way we snow anymore is when we just get super lucky to have some progressive boundary wave take a perfect track by pure luck. What look to we want to give us a good chance for a legit Big snowstorm if you’re rooting against a -nao?  What other mechanism can work?  

I think the two snowy Winters of 13-14 and 14-15 both had big +NAO's. I just say let's see if it can sync up with +PNA, if it can, like 14-15 (which was an El Nino), maybe it will be a snowy pattern. We've been having a ridge hook up with Greenland/Davis Strait ridging, so maybe we can likewise extend a trough south from Greenland too? That's my guess.  It's an unmistakable pattern right now. 

I have to worry about Feb PNA though, because in the last 6 years we've had a mean of +150dm, which is even a few std's above enso. What a test for El Nino conditions coming up in the N. Pacific!

[Heisy]

Plenty of members on EPS like the 16-18th time frame vs last night.

See this time frame here? GFS is farther E with that NW lobe near Montana. If we see the euro trend that way it’ll lead to a weaker wave and it won’t be a cutter. This run phased too much energy and it pumped the ridge up ahead. This is what I’ve been pointing out the last 24 hours. Even with the massive cut there was some front end snow on OP because we actually have antecedent cold.



There’s a path to victory here if we get a little lucky.




Just for fun to prove my point, the 12z control was a touch farther E with the whole trough and brought more energy E and it lead to this. GFS is on the weak side but it had a solid snowstorm. We find the sweet spot we have a solid threat.




.

[psuhoffman]

Since I can already hear the groaning when I say legit big snow I don’t mean hecs 20” storms. But what I mean is a legit amplified wave that drops 6” plus over a larger region wide area. Not some progressive wave that has a significant snow zone of 3 miles wide and even if we get lucky enough for it to how our area many will still be left unhappy. 
 

I’m talking about storms like…all 3 of the 1987 storms, the Jan 1988 storm. The late Dec 1990 storm. The early Feb 95 storm. Several 96 storms other than the blizzard. The Jan 2000 storm. Early Dec 2002 early Feb 2003 late Feb 2003 after the blizzard. Jan 2004. The back to back late Feb early March 2005 storms. Feb 2006.  March 2009. The two storms right before snoemageddon in 2010.  Jan 2011…. 
 

Storms that have a BIG areal coverage of snow because they tracked at us from the SW amplifying but were resisted by blocked confluence. That’s how we get a real wide win.

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think the two snowy Winters of 13-14 and 14-15 both had big +NAO's. I just say let's see if it can sync up with +PNA, if it can, like 14-15 (which was an El Nino), maybe it will be a snowy pattern. We've been having a ridge hook up with Greenland/Davis Straight ridging, so maybe we can likewise extend a trough south from Greenland too? That's my guess. It's an unmistakable pattern. I also found the AMO is about +0.3 correlating with SE ridge these days. 

The Feb 14 storm may have had a neutral NAO, but there was  a -WPO and a +PNA. Big storm but wasn't good for the coastal plain. The winter of 14-15, which was back loaded, did have a predominately +NAO and was cold, but not sure it had a 'big storm', which is what PSU is interested in. That's his thing- Moose not squirrels. You need to realize that when you engage him in this stuff. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

It's my fault following the geese and looking for the one big storm that's one and done for this winter with the 20"+ storm then moving towards Spring.

Shoot the damn geese already....false fucking signals

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Can’t deny the trend, but it may progress fast enough to get to p7 by Jan 25-28 give or take. Then it’s game on for Feb. let’s hope we get an opportunity in between the 15th and 22nd

I mean I kinda know that we would be relying on a backloader going into the winter, but are we really on to Feb now? If that's the case we are running out of time, yes?

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the evolution on the GEPS is straight up classic 

Dude, you've been posting these epic looks for like 2 months now....weeklies, monthlies, ens, etc. Eventually you will hit. You are this forum's JB, without a doubt sir...and I mean that with all due respect.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

The fact that we still have cutters this winter doesn’t concern me in the least. I predicted that we will see them half the time. Note above normal precip anomalies in the midwest from my winter outlook. Two branches of the STJ, one that cuts and one that doesn’t. This week it will be the former. But it won’t last, instead we will likely rotate between those two dominant tracks. 

Cutters are the norm in a Nino....this I agree with. Assuming we cash in big at some point, never a guarantee.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

Much much better than last nights run…





.

You and your ops. Stop using them to glean LR details. Just my opinion man. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

GEFS and EPS look similar on the 12z run. I thought they did at 0z too. Subjective I guess. At 8-10 day leads I am more focused on the general idea, and they have been pretty close. Snow mean again modest on both, but better on the EPS. The GEPS has the best look and outcome of the 12z ens runs today for that period.(posted earlier) Splitting hairs really. All 3 are hinting at the same idea for that window.

Yep, hinting at a suppressed wave it appears.

[CAPE]

Ralph be drinkin'

[CAPE]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yep, hinting at a suppressed wave it appears.

A possibility yes.

[psuhoffman]

@CAPE @Stormchaserchuck1

I would be thrilled if we got a run like Feb-Mar 2015. There were two storms in there I consider big. One in Feb and one in March. But I think 2014 and 2015 are awful examples of something to root for. I’ve called them fools gold. 
 

2014 Dec to early Feb there was a lot of ridging over the top of the nao domain but because a strong. Tpv got trapped under it the pattern mimicked a -nao. We also had a perfect pacific that held for months which is just unlikely in a -pdo. 

 

March 2014 and Feb-March 2015 was a bad example because a tpv got displaced into Quebec. Extremely anomalously SE. and that also mimicked the suppression of a -nao 50/50 configuration. 
 

But in 75 years of records that I looked at of snowstorm after snowstorm there are barely any other examples of that. The fact those were our most recent cold snow Winters I think creates the bias that those are a viable long wave pattern to root for. History suggests they were flukes with very specific and rare details that made them work. 
 

imo it’s unlikely we will ever see that again in our life. Not saying we won’t ever see a epo pna driven snowstorm. But it’s unlikely we ever see a winter where that pattern leads to repeated hits and a seasonal win. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A possibility yes.

I'm just being a prick. But seriously I'm not stuck on the Archambault thing but THAT is when we cash in imho. We've seen the cutters, we see the ens overwhelming things with the strong NAO. Like Bob Chill said, the NAO will wobble and wane to and fro. It is when this relaxes we will cash in. I'm willing to bet a dollar on it.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE @Stormchaserchuck1

I would be thrilled if we got a run like Feb-Mar 2015. There were two storms in there I consider big. One in Feb and one in March. But I think 2014 and 2015 are awful examples of something to root for. I’ve called them fools gold. 
 

2014 Dec to early Feb there was a lot of ridging over the top of the nao domain but because a strong. Tpv got trapped under it the pattern mimicked a -nao. We also had a perfect pacific that held for months which is just unlikely in a -pdo. 

 

March 2014 and Feb-March 2015 was a bad example because a tpv got displaced into Quebec. Extremely anomalously SE. and that also mimicked the suppression of a -nao 50/50 configuration. 
 

But in 75 years of records that I looked at of snowstorm after snowstorm there are barely any other examples of that. The fact those were our most recent cold snow Winters I think creates the bias that those are a viable long wave pattern to root for. History suggests they were flukes with very specific and rare details that made them work. 
 

imo it’s unlikely we will ever see that again in our life. Not saying we won’t ever see a epo pna driven snowstorm. But it’s unlikely we ever see a winter where that pattern leads to repeated hits and a seasonal win. 

This was a bit nuts. Who knows, it could become a more common h5 configuration in our new base state. Might take a pattern like this to get enough cold to snow.

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This was a bit nuts. Who knows, it could become a more common h5 configuration in our new base state. Might take a pattern like this to get enough cold to snow.

Omg yea!  But I think maybe I wasn’t clear. I’m not saying that wouldn’t work.  Look at that pac. It’s Fng perfect. And that +nao is displaced and elongated south to mimic the same effect as a nao 50/50. Not quite as effectively so it’s not as big a hecs look but that would be a snowy look. 
 

What I was saying is it’s unlikely we get that. Getting that pac look is gonna be hard enough in a -pdo cycle but to then also get that super rare elongated nao trough with a tpv in Quebec… I wouldn’t hold my breath to ever see that as a 2 month long locked in pattern again in my life was  my point. 
 

On the other hand if we do get that kind of pac look we don’t need a crazy -nao. But i disagree we want a +nao either. 2015 only worked because of that odd elongated configuration and that’s not how it would likely play out again. 
 

But 2003 and 2014 snow we can get by with a neutral to decent Atlantic look and a perfect Pac. 
2003

2014

While both years might have had a numerical

+nao at times the h5 shows the Atlantic wasn’t hostile. The configuration was just displaced from a canonical -nao but we would all know that look was good and it’s not what you think of when you say +nao!  Those looks can work just fine. But I don’t agree w chuck we want a big blue ball over the nao space. It never worked before 2015 and hasn’t since. That was a fluke imo. 

[MJO812]

48 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Dude, you've been posting these epic looks for like 2 months now....weeklies, monthlies, ens, etc. Eventually you will hit. You are this forum's JB, without a doubt sir...and I mean that with all due respect.

Omg LOL

[brooklynwx99]

47 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Dude, you've been posting these epic looks for like 2 months now....weeklies, monthlies, ens, etc. Eventually you will hit. You are this forum's JB, without a doubt sir...and I mean that with all due respect.

bull shit. when things look good, I say they look good. when they look shitty, i say they look shitty. most of this winter has looked shitty. what am i going to do, post the TPV sitting over AK in December for two weeks

that clown would say you’re getting a blizzard no matter the pattern. hell, im not even guaranteeing anything, just trying to show people that the pattern is largely favorable rather than bitching and moaning about 300hr OP runs because the TPV shifted 50 miles southwest 

[brooklynwx99]

“all due respect” lol

[psuhoffman]

Ok so we’ve reached the “scorched earth take no prisoners”  part of the season already. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok so we’ve reached the “scorched earth take no prisoners”  part of the season already. 

i have no idea where that came from, but that accusation was so foul i had to respond lmao

[Stormchaserchuck1]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 Those looks can work just fine. But I don’t agree w chuck we want a big blue ball over the nao space. 

I think you're separating the Pacific and Atlantic automatically, when since 2013 they have posted a 0.30 correlation, and since 2019 a ~0.40 correlation. It may even be a greater correlation this year! I'm not saying we want a +NAO.. no way Jose that's a warmer pattern at 0.4, but if they are correlating with Pac +PNA greater than 0.40 than it's something to look for! If I could still post custom ftp files on the CDC site, I would show you an example of the last 200-300 days with -NAO/+NAO.. -nao's have a -pna/+epo, and +nao's (although less of a correlation) have weak +pna/-epo. That's all. Just pointing out a trend. (Does anyone know how to still run custom files on CDC ftp site? I used that for so much good stuff in the early 2010s (Stratosphere warming plots, time lag, etc), but they seemed to have discontinued the option to compile a list of, for example 300 custom days, as far as I know. 

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i have no idea where that came from, but that accusation was so foul i had to respond lmao

But he did say with all due respect. 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, jayyy said:

Idk, maybe it’s just me but I’d almost prefer to see a SVA/NC snowstorm at this lead than a bullseye given this years trend of things coming well north once we hit day 4-5. Especially if the setup is a southern stream low tracking west to east along the boundary.

I know there’s a fear of suppression given the evolution at H5, but I’d rather take the possibility that the boundary is being depicted too far south / the block / 50-50 are being depicted a tad too strong over trying to thread the needle again.

Also, just a reminder for those feeling like debbing today after a disappointing outcome yesterday, that many of us live in the central DMV, where climo is roughly 20-30” per year. For the lowlands / 95 crew, that’s pretty much two solid storms or one biggie with a medium , etc. I know it feels like Deja vu and things are being punted, but backloaded winters (late Jan thru early march) are commonplace around these parts in a niño. Yes, we sometimes score an early season storm in niño heads, but we’ve also been shutout going into mid January before as well and ended up with a solid winter.

Just need to be a BIT more patient. It sucks, I get it, but our time will come. Going to be a rollercoaster to get there it appears, but we will see snow, and likely multiple snows in a relatively short span.


Big thanks to cape psu heisy Brooklyn terp & those tracking the LR and breaking it down for us.

Agree. I for one would love to see a suppressed look at D7-10 lead times. 

And brooklyn didn’t deserve that potshot from ralph

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Agree. I for one would love to see a suppressed look at D7-10 lead times. 

And brooklyn didn’t deserve that potshot from ralph

i’m not going to act like a good pattern doesn’t look good. there are many other people that will already do that 

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i’m not going to act like a good pattern doesn’t look good. there are many other people that will already do that 

I just checked, all ensembles/models agree on a jan 16-17 wave with varying degrees of suppression or cutter-ish looks. The ops (ec and canadian) show a cutter those days, but all ensembles show a more suppressed track which makes more sense with the block and colder air up top. The ops dump all cold air to the west making the storm cut, but I think that’s a low probability outcome that’s being over-projected by the cutter pattern this week.