Terpeast Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I hope something pans out by the 20th, but at least one fly in the ointment is the MJO. Unfortunately, the EURO keeps trending toward a more amplified wave into 4 and 5 like the GEFS. Can’t deny the trend, but it may progress fast enough to get to p7 by Jan 25-28 give or take. Then it’s game on for Feb. let’s hope we get an opportunity in between the 15th and 22nd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 55 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I still think the 13th ends up more near the coast or just inland. I'd feel better in CLE/BUF/PIT for that than I would ORD/DTW/MKE. If that goes more east it might also more effectively set up some sort of 50/50 than if it goes up through Wisconsin. The 0z Candian suggests this further east notion on the weekend storm something to keep an eye on after we see where the baroclinic zone sets up after our super soaker and damaging wind event on Tuesday into Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Can’t deny the trend, but it may progress fast enough to get to p7 by Jan 25-28 give or take. Then it’s game on for Feb. let’s hope we get an opportunity in between the 15th and 22nd LOL. Now on the verge of punting all of January? 4 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 18 minutes ago, Heisy said: I agree. Sometimes my ADHD makes it tough for me to explain things. Mind races a million mph lol Having a tough time getting my point across. Guess what I mean is there was a reason last nights 00z eps had such a paltry snow mean. It did get the lower heights to where we want them eventually, but there weren’t any good snow opportunities because of the western ridge and trough dump out west vs the GEFS/GFS camp that’s it. That’s all. Lol. . The modeled 'ground truth' isn't much different wrt precip amounts in the 15-18th window with colder air in place. 0z EPS looks a little better than the 0z GEFS. Snow mean? Ok if you want to use that as an indicator for that period, they look very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: LOL. Now on the verge of punting all of January? I didn’t say that. I said we have a window of opportunity Jan 15-20/22 before looking forward to Feb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 12 minutes ago, osfan24 said: LOL. Now on the verge of punting all of January? Seriously…STFU with that in this thread. 4 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 Everyone in this thread needs a nice massage and then a happy ending with 6” of snow. It’s mighty tense in here. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 I agree with Heisys analysis of the 0z eps. It wasn’t what we want. There is a reason almost none of the members had snow near us or even south of us. They had amazing agreement and most progressed the way he laid out. But that doesn’t mean it’s right. It’s day 10 stuff and gfs geps were better. EPS prior runs were better. It could flip back today. But that one run in a vacuum wasn’t good. It was very close. But the key part to watch is when the TPV elongated or splits as most guidance hints after the cutters, we need the eastern extension of the trough to be deeper than whatever hangs back or dumps west. Remember when I said the lower heights in the 50/50 space are key. If you look at all the examples of our -pna wins what they all have in common is the heights to our northeast are lower than the heights in the west! The gefs of course just dumps 90% of the energy east and pops a western ridge. That’s better but actually could be too suppressive given the retrograding block and monster 50/50. Here’s the good news. That leaves us needing a compromise between the two as a best case and that’s actually historically the most likely solution. I know years ago ncep used to go with a 60/40 compromise between the eps gefs to draw up their long range guidance. 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 17 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Everyone in this thread needs a nice massage and then a happy ending with 6” of snow. It’s mighty tense in here. So creepy man. There’s trying to be sarcastic and then there’s creepy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 17 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Everyone in this thread needs a nice massage and then a happy ending with 6” of snow. It’s mighty tense in here. Coastal explosion 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree with Heisys analysis of the 0z eps. It wasn’t what we want. There is a reason almost none of the members had snow near us or even south of us. They had amazing agreement and most progressed the way he laid out. But that doesn’t mean it’s right. It’s day 10 stuff and gfs geps were better. EPS prior runs were better. It could flip back today. But that one run in a vacuum wasn’t good. It was very close. But the key part to watch is when the TPV elongated or splits as most guidance hints after the cutters, we need the eastern extension of the trough to be deeper than whatever hangs back or dumps west. Remember when I said the lower heights in the 50/50 space are key. If you look at all the examples of our -pna wins what they all have in common is the heights to our northeast are lower than the heights in the west! The gefs of course just dumps 90% of the energy east and pops a western ridge. That’s better but actually could be too suppressive given the retrograding block and monster 50/50. Here’s the good news. That leaves us needing a compromise between the two as a best case and that’s actually historically the most likely solution. I know years ago ncep used to go with a 60/40 compromise between the eps gefs to draw up their long range guidance. It wasn't what we want for what though? He seemed to be focusing on the period where there is a signal for a wave to track underneath with colder air in place centered on the 16-17th. The snow mean is modest on both models. Precip for that period is too (for our region), but actually a bit better on the EPS. It is mostly to our SE/offshore. You can see the possibility of suppression on both. Now if you/he are referring to where the pattern ends up beyond that (towards day 15) then yeah the GEFS look is better. Not really that much different though. The differences mostly have to do with how the EPS dumps more TPV energy out west at that point, which could be in error. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 Some over analysis going on. At day 10 the general idea is the same. Have fun trying to glean more detail. There will be changes in later model cycles for that period. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 possible incoming on the GFS...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 8 minutes ago, Shad said: possible incoming on the GFS...... Decent snowstorm on Day 9 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 1 minute ago, yoda said: Decent snowstorm on Day 9 We need that to be congrats Charlotte until day 4 lol. But in all seriousness I think the 15th - 25th Has alot of promise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 GEFS and GEPS are different, but are both very nice looks for snowfall to the coast. great patterns here, and both would offer higher end potential 5 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 the evolution on the GEPS is straight up classic 4 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 Being very practical about it to keep my hopes in check. The chance of snow the next 7 days is slim to none. Let's see what the models are showing for the week of the 14th by next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: the evolution on the GEPS is straight up classic Help me out here - trying to learn when things are calm. I see a huge West-based block, low heights around the great lakes, and a 50-50ish low at the start. The block breaks down, and I've heard many say that we often score our bigs ones when blocking regimes relax. The low heights around the great lakes move East, but seem kinda far North to me. What should I be keying in on here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 We're going to have to get through a couple cutters next week. After that there chances. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the evolution on the GEPS is straight up classic 12z GEPS has probably the strongest signal so far for a storm in the 16-17th window. It's still there on the GEFS, but with at least 5 recent op runs depicting a MA snowstorm, you would think it would be a little more prominent. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 Just now, CAPE said: 12z GEPS has probably the strongest signal so far for a storm in the 16-17th window. It's still on the GEFS, but with with at least 5 recent op runs depicting a MA snowstorm, you would think it would be a little more prominent. 500mb looks good on the GEFS so I'm fine with it but yeah, that look on the GEPS would give us the 17th as well as a chance for a big dog when the block decays. that evolution fits the bill 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 3 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: Help me out here - trying to learn when things are calm. I see a huge West-based block, low heights around the great lakes, and a 50-50ish low at the start. The block breaks down, and I've heard many say that we often score our bigs ones when blocking regimes relax. The low heights around the great lakes move East, but seem kinda far North to me. What should I be keying in on here? the block decaying and the TPV moving towards the 50/50 region are the major factors 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 12z GEPS for the 17th 6 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 Active southern stream on the GEPS 20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the evolution on the GEPS is straight up classic and an active southern stream 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 Just now, CAPE said: Active southern stream on the GEPS and an active southern stream yup, get something to roll underneath, pop a quick +PNA and it's big dog time 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the block decaying and the TPV moving towards the 50/50 region are the major factors My first instinct right now is to hedge on the block not really decaying but wobbling and pulsing. I think you probably agree. For people who aren't used to using ensembles, they may think "decay" means "gone". It could happen that way but my take in lr ens is simply spread smoothing the mean to a point where features get washed. My gut guess is the AO/NAO block will remain intact and as we move forward in time the ens means will show that as leads shorten on the current decayed look. In a best case scenario, this will continue for 4-6 weeks. At least for a couple. Not a week and done. That would be anomalous based on history of previous strong blocking events. Eta: I'm not talking about the specific west based nao block as much as the ao/nao domain space in general. NAO domain is quite volatile but not the AO. Time will tell but history is behind us at least 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 The fact that we still have cutters this winter doesn’t concern me in the least. I predicted that we will see them half the time. Note above normal precip anomalies in the midwest from my winter outlook. Two branches of the STJ, one that cuts and one that doesn’t. This week it will be the former. But it won’t last, instead we will likely rotate between those two dominant tracks. 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 Euro and GFS still differ greatly with handling that NW energy at 120, gfs phases it and pumps ride behind it & euro is gonna leave it behind and dump in W again it seems. Prefer GFS scenario… . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 7, 2024 Share Posted January 7, 2024 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: Euro and GFS still differ greatly with handling that NW energy at 120, gfs phases it and pumps ride behind it & euro is gonna leave it behind and dump in W again it seems. Prefer GFS scenario… . Are you still hoping jan 13 won’t be a cutter? (Serious question) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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