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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming


stormtracker
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2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Voice of Reason…..Avocados 

I was joking of course....but that overall look presented on the ens would be more of a suppression trend imho. That is, if those looks held and are close. I would take my chances with those look 7 days a week tho and I have more to lose wrt suppression up in SE PA where I'm at. I do like where we are headed....quite a bit actually. 

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15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I was joking of course....but that overall look presented on the ens would be more of a suppression trend imho. That is, if those looks held and are close. I would take my chances with those look 7 days a week tho and I have more to lose wrt suppression up in SE PA where I'm at. I do like where we are headed....quite a bit actually. 

It’s there

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11 minutes ago, J.Mike said:

Question: where are the geese?

Well today they were all in Rehoboth Beach. I was out this morning before the rain and I saw no less than 10 large flocks in one hour. It was incredible. Seemed to be heading South but who knows. 

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15 minutes ago, TJ3 said:

Well today they were all in Rehoboth Beach. I was out this morning before the rain and I saw no less than 10 large flocks in one hour. It was incredible. Seemed to be heading South but who knows. 

Yes they were- they’ve been crazy around here the last 3 days 

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never look a snow map straight in the eyes. take a quick glance get a sense of it and move on
Thanks but I really don't need the advice from you, respectfully. Been on these boards since 2003. I know how snow maps work, and I know what our climo and expectations are down here. Thank you.
(Not to even mention that this was a historical snow map from a storm that happened in 1996)
Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk


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The -NAO is rushing out in a hurry. That's going to give it 10 days! The December one was 10 days too. If you look back over the last several Winters they have not had much staying power. Since we have an ongoing Stratosphere warming through mid-month, it's especially not happening because these usually correlate with 500mb ridging +time. The GEFS wants to quickly turn the NAO positive post 1-20. I'm honestly willing to take a chance, I feel the Pacific could be more favorable if we have +nao conditions develop. Before then, Pacific ridge is still kind of south to favor a snowstorm, then the NAO lifts out, although when it's rapidly rising to Neutral (Jan 16-17) we are more likely to see snow. 

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1 hour ago, J.Mike said:

Question: where are the geese?

Pissing in the Delaware River, The Delaware Bay, The Chesapeake Bay, and the Atlantic keeping them warming up!  Then they will continue flying south towards suppression. 

However, they know this is the season of the One and Done!

I know someone back there was saying nickel and dime our way to 2-4" but looking at how things are right now think we have a better shot of the 20" snowstorm mid-west to the East Coast in time. 

Geese.jpg

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If tonight’s runs are correct we wait until 18-19th and beyond for any threats for when the lower heights finally push far enough E. Till then the WAR ridge is too strong because of the -PNA. Annoying, but maybe we get lucky with an Archambault event once block has retrograded. If we go cutter, cutter, cutter then cold and dry before warming up then I’ll just delete my wxbell subscription and cliff dive


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1 minute ago, Heisy said:

If tonight’s runs are correct we wait until 18-19th and beyond for any threats for when the lower heights finally push far enough E. Till then the WAR ridge is too strong because of the -PNA. Annoying, but maybe we get lucky with an Archambault event once block has retrograded. If we go cutter, cutter, cutter then cold and dry before warming up then I’ll just delete my wxbell subscription and cliff dive


.

Look at the ensembles this far out not the op runs

 

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