CAPE Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 7:29 PM, North Balti Zen said: Can I make a circle around DC/Balt/ up to the Mason-dixon line and assume...not there? Expand Or not anywhere south of there. As of now its an OV/GL/interior NE snow event. Cold comes in behind, which has been the expectation based on the preponderance of guidance. Still a chance the cold comes in sooner with some frozen NW areas, but we know how that usually plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 7:23 PM, psuhoffman said: I don’t like it. It’s too much. Even 2016 when it did hit I was worn out from over a week of that shit by the time it got here. This was more fun and less emotionally draining when stuff would pop up 48-72 hours out. Expand I was thinking about that the other day when tracking today's system. Like how I miss the times when we'd wake up to surprise snows, or when something sneaks up on us within a couple of days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 8:16 PM, WxUSAF said: Hopefully this includes us Expand May be pulling up xmACIS to check what they did. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 Did anyone notice they added the ICON to pivotal weather? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 8:32 PM, Terpeast said: I was thinking about that the other day when tracking today's system. Like how I miss the times when we'd wake up to surprise snows, or when something sneaks up on us within a couple of days. Expand I feel like Jan. 2022 (or at least the first system that month) was a little like this. Granted, I had just moved here, so maybe I just wasn't paying attention. Either way, it was fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 lol at downplaying Jan 2016. Here are a few of the vehicles in my driveway after that storm. 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 8:32 PM, wxmvpete said: May be pulling up xmACIS to check what they did. Expand January 2014 event- the week before KIAD got 8.5". For those dates, cold with 0.3". January 2011 dates- KIAD 1.2" January 1992 dates-- cold and dry March 9-10, 1960 dates-- 5.8" at DCA (Bigger storm here to open that month) March 11-12, 1960-- cold and dry at DCA December 11-12, 1958-- cold and a Trace at KDCA March 24-25, 1940-- cold and a Trace in DC January 23-24, 1940-- big storm, 9.5" in DC and cold January 29-31, 1936-- Cold and 0.2" in DC December 28-29, 1935-- Cold and 6.3" of snow in that period. So we know it's cold, but it can give us a decent event based on the event. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 8:48 PM, WVclimo said: lol at downplaying Jan 2016. Here are a few of the vehicles in my driveway after that storm. Expand Here’s one from AA County. Def nothing wrong with that event. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 Update on my winter outlook for our subforum. TLDR - lowered expectations by 25% east of 15. No change west of 15. 3 1 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 Nice visual - here comes the cold, the animation loop stops on Tuesday Jan 17 th . Looks 6 to 8 degrees above normal at that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 9:49 PM, Terpeast said: Update on my winter outlook for our subforum. TLDR - lowered expectations by 25% east of 15. No change west of 15. Expand My area is 15 to 30 inches. Hopefully a few moderate events and one MECS gets me to 30 inches. Thanks for the update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 Calm down Ryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 8:37 PM, Interstate said: Did anyone notice they added the ICON to pivotal weather? Expand did they improve it? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 9:49 PM, Terpeast said: Update on my winter outlook for our subforum. TLDR - lowered expectations by 25% east of 15. No change west of 15. Expand I’m holding. Not saying I’m not getting a little nervous. But I have a sneaky suspicion either things line up for a typical Nino run at some point and we hit my forecast or it doesn’t and we don’t get even close. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 Happy Hour GFS might be about to toss out a different look for the 13th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 10:12 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Happy Hour GFS might be about to toss out a different look for the 13th Expand Why u say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 10:12 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Happy Hour GFS might be about to toss out a different look for the 13th Expand 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 10:15 PM, BristowWx said: Why u say that?Because it looked different But didn’t matter really minus some mood flakes. What else is there to do but watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 10:17 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Because it looked different But didn’t matter really minus some mood flakes. What else is there to do but watch Expand Yep. Need that 986 low to move south and turn into 1006. Maybe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 10:18 PM, BristowWx said: Yep. Need that 986 low to move south and turn into 1006. Maybe Doesn’t sound like a big ask when you put it like that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 10:21 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Doesn’t sound like a big ask when you put it like that Expand What's 20mb and a few hundred miles among friends??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 10:21 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Doesn’t sound like a big ask when you put it like that Expand DTW will be happy. That’s a deep digger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 9:51 PM, frd said: Nice visual - here comes the cold, the animation loop stops on Tuesday Jan 17 th . Looks 6 to 8 degrees above normal at that time. Expand Optimism and pessimism aside, what are our chances of getting some of that to come east? The -NAO would argue for it, but I'll wait until Chuck approves. I have heard that the EPS is looking nice after MLK day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 GFS digital love again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 10:26 PM, cbmclean said: Optimism and pessimism aside, what are our chances of getting some of that to come east? The -NAO would argue for it, but I'll wait until Chuck approves. I have heard that the EPS is looking nice after MLK day. Expand Colder air will move in. As many have stated here, the period of interest is from the 15 th to the 20 th, or possibly to near the 23 rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 10:07 PM, psuhoffman said: I’m holding. Not saying I’m not getting a little nervous. But I have a sneaky suspicion either things line up for a typical Nino run at some point and we hit my forecast or it doesn’t and we don’t get even close. Expand i know we keep talking about this but when a model takes snow away from us its all of it. Its never 12-6 or 8-4. its 12-0 8-0.... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 10:17 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Because it looked different But didn’t matter really minus some mood flakes. What else is there to do but watch Expand DT says the solution is bullskank and forecasts that it will trend south and east more and more as it gets closer due to models seeing the severe blocking better 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 10:34 PM, Solution Man said: GFS digital love again? Expand i love simple overrunning events. This one screams supression though lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 10:40 PM, Ji said: DT says the solution is bullskank and forecasts that it will trend south and east more and more as it gets closer due to models seeing the severe blocking betterI like that narrative so sure why not that sounds good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 10:41 PM, Ji said: i love simple overrunning events. This one screams supression though lol Expand HM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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