psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 4:11 AM, Ji said: Please see Steve psu thread about how it will never snow again. It will allow you to regain precious time of your life your wasting chasing a ghost It will never snow again in this generation Expand That’s an exaggeration. Every few years if we’re lucky he might get an inch or two. 4 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 00z gfs now has the low next Friday down south over northern LA vs Midwest. Let’s see what happens in next few frames. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 4:15 AM, psuhoffman said: That’s an exaggeration. Every few years if we’re lucky he might get an inch or two. Expand Gonna pull a you and say: I'm not saying it won't snow again. It just...may be more difficult. All the discussion boils down to that, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 Cmc made a big step towards making the 13th wave a player, gfs scenario obv wouldn’t. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 Actually it does work just barely. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 GFS jumped big towards the TPV getting involved with the 13th wave so it cuts. Need more separation if it's going to work - had been trending that way but 18z and 00z have reversed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 4:16 AM, nj2va said: 00z gfs now has the low next Friday down south over northern LA vs Midwest. Let’s see what happens in next few frames. Once I looked at the jet stream, I figured it would cut. Trough goes negative too soon, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 4:21 AM, Heisy said: Actually it does work just barely. . Expand 95% not gonna work. As tomorrow’s storm has shown, we really don’t want to be on the south end of the snowfall area. If anything we want it to be across S VA or NC at these leads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 Beautiful storm I think we can trend colder if we have 2 blocks to the north.. unless models backoff on that 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 GFS just too buddy-buddy with the energy pieces here compared to GEM, far stronger, and kicks out the leading shortwave across the lakes/Canada too quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 4:15 AM, psuhoffman said: That’s an exaggeration. Every few years if we’re lucky he might get an inch or two. Expand from a progressive wave i assume Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 Ggem wants to replay 2010. It’s got a Feb 5 2010 type storm then tried to pull off a repeat of Feb 10. @Stormchaserchuck1 that’s what SHOULD happen with a -3stdv block during a Nino. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 4:40 AM, Ji said: from a progressive wave i assume Expand Clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 4:41 AM, psuhoffman said: Clipper Weenie runs tonight, gfs has a weak sauce lead wave so it’s just a giant cutter for 13th, but it leads to a pretty sick pattern. Cmc a tick or two away from perfection . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 GFS has a solid hit the 16th/17th 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 4:29 AM, baltosquid said: GFS just too buddy-buddy with the energy pieces here compared to GEM, far stronger, and kicks out the leading shortwave across the lakes/Canada too quick. Expand It’s ok it gets us with the next one. Pattern is loaded on both. Today was good trends across guidance imo. Off to sleep. Driving to here in the morning. If the snow won’t come to you… 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 So far GEFS also seems to want to show that North/South stacking of vorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 4:43 AM, psuhoffman said: It’s ok it gets us with the next one. Pattern is loaded on both. Today was good trends across guidance imo. Off to sleep. Driving to here in the morning. If the snow won’t come to you… Expand How long of a trip? Drive safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncletim Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 4:43 AM, psuhoffman said: It’s ok it gets us with the next one. Pattern is loaded on both. Today was good trends across guidance imo. Off to sleep. Driving to here in the morning. If the snow won’t come to you… Expand Could be somewhere near Newfane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 a few snowy solutions 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 beautiful- looks mint to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 The 16-17th window continues to look like the first chance for a wave tracking to our south with cold air in place. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 ^The 0z GFS, and now 6z have it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 11:00 AM, Prestige Worldwide said: beautiful- looks mint to me Expand Good agreement for the coldest period we have seen so far, occurring in a favorable climo period, and a pattern that is conducive for shortwaves tracking to our south. As always it will come down to wave timing/luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 End of the 6z GFS run 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 11:25 AM, CAPE said: End of the 6z GFS run That's the Jan 2016 reduxSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 11:37 AM, Ji said: That's the Jan 2016 redux Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Expand As long as its 50 miles further east so I don't get dry slotted. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 6z GEFS for the 16-17th potential. This is a pretty strong signal for a significant shortwave and developing surface low at this range. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 On 1/6/2024 at 11:47 AM, CAPE said: 6z GEFS for the 16-17th potential. This is a pretty strong signal for a significant shortwave and developing surface low at this range. Expand Well I'm in Wisconsin then so book it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6, 2024 Share Posted January 6, 2024 Btw, 6z eps/control made big steps towards a cmc like solution for the 13th with better confluence and a farther E wave at end of run… I have a feeling 12z runs today might be fun. . 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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