SnowDreamer Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 18 minutes ago, Jebman said: ...taking in long jebwalks and sneaking out at 3am and walking in and wallowing in other people's snowdrifts! It is so much fun and such a THRILL! rolling around in stolen snowdrifts in the middle of the night! This is so wholesome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: This is so wholesome. YOU BETCHA! I WUB SNOW so much! There is something so incredible about walking in and wallowing in other people's snowdrifts! You wait til the middle of the night. Wear light colored pants and a light colored coat and winter hat, then steal out the door and jebwalk to the drift! Brazenly walk in it, savoring the feel of walking in a deep stolen snowdrift, and wallow around in it, getting the beloved snow all over, even all over your head and way the hell down your coat! During the day I'd survey a neighborhood where many snowdrifts were. Later that night I would be in seventh Heaven walking in and often wallowing deep in stolen snowdrifts all over the place, often while unsuspecting snow weenies were fast asleep dreaming of Kocin-Uccellini blizzards lmao. You can BET I got my snow fix alright! Speakin' of snow, tomorrow Palisades Tahoe is gonna get 19 more inches of pow! And even MORE a few days later! I'd love to go there and show those guys how to dig snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It depends. So you can drill down on a specific factor. The expanded pac Hadley cell. The IO and Western Pac warm pool. The warmer Gulf and Atlantic contribution to TNH. The MC forcing issue. But if you pull back they all have a common thread! The Oliphant in the room? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It depends. So you can drill down on a specific factor. The expanded pac Hadley cell. The IO and Western Pac warm pool. The warmer Gulf and Atlantic contribution to TNH. The MC forcing issue. But if you pull back they all have a common thread! So it's warming. We don't have to dance around it...Now of course, we don't actually know how this winter pans out...so there's no conclusion to be had yet! But IF it doesn't work out we'll know. Like, can't we all just get to a space where we acknowledge the possibility of the effect on our climo? Yeah it might be climate...there. Out in the open, no elephants...if this is where we are we're gonna have to find a way to deal with it. No amount of denial is gonna change it. All that being said...at least for now we still have our best shot in this niño, and it may be better not to torture ourselves in the short term until we see how this season goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 So it's warming. We don't have to dance around it...Now of course, we don't actually know how this winter pans out...so there's no conclusion to be had yet! But IF it doesn't work out we'll know. Like, can't we all just get to a space where we acknowledge the possibility of the effect on our climo? Yeah it might be climate...there. Out in the open, no elephants...if this is where we are we're gonna have to find a way to deal with it. No amount of denial is gonna change it. All that being said...at least for now we still have our best shot in this niño, and it may be better not to torture ourselves in the short term until we see how this season goes Please see Steve psu thread about how it will never snow again. It will allow you to regain precious time of your life your wasting chasing a ghostIt will never snow again in this generation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Please see Steve psu thread about how it will never snow again. It will allow you to regain precious time of your life your wasting chasing a ghost It will never snow again in this generation That’s an exaggeration. Every few years if we’re lucky he might get an inch or two. 4 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 00z gfs now has the low next Friday down south over northern LA vs Midwest. Let’s see what happens in next few frames. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s an exaggeration. Every few years if we’re lucky he might get an inch or two. Gonna pull a you and say: I'm not saying it won't snow again. It just...may be more difficult. All the discussion boils down to that, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Cmc made a big step towards making the 13th wave a player, gfs scenario obv wouldn’t. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Actually it does work just barely. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 GFS jumped big towards the TPV getting involved with the 13th wave so it cuts. Need more separation if it's going to work - had been trending that way but 18z and 00z have reversed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 00z gfs now has the low next Friday down south over northern LA vs Midwest. Let’s see what happens in next few frames. Once I looked at the jet stream, I figured it would cut. Trough goes negative too soon, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Actually it does work just barely. . 95% not gonna work. As tomorrow’s storm has shown, we really don’t want to be on the south end of the snowfall area. If anything we want it to be across S VA or NC at these leads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Beautiful storm I think we can trend colder if we have 2 blocks to the north.. unless models backoff on that 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 GFS just too buddy-buddy with the energy pieces here compared to GEM, far stronger, and kicks out the leading shortwave across the lakes/Canada too quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s an exaggeration. Every few years if we’re lucky he might get an inch or two. from a progressive wave i assume Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Ggem wants to replay 2010. It’s got a Feb 5 2010 type storm then tried to pull off a repeat of Feb 10. @Stormchaserchuck1 that’s what SHOULD happen with a -3stdv block during a Nino. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Ji said: from a progressive wave i assume Clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Clipper Weenie runs tonight, gfs has a weak sauce lead wave so it’s just a giant cutter for 13th, but it leads to a pretty sick pattern. Cmc a tick or two away from perfection . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 GFS has a solid hit the 16th/17th 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12 minutes ago, baltosquid said: GFS just too buddy-buddy with the energy pieces here compared to GEM, far stronger, and kicks out the leading shortwave across the lakes/Canada too quick. It’s ok it gets us with the next one. Pattern is loaded on both. Today was good trends across guidance imo. Off to sleep. Driving to here in the morning. If the snow won’t come to you… 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 So far GEFS also seems to want to show that North/South stacking of vorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s ok it gets us with the next one. Pattern is loaded on both. Today was good trends across guidance imo. Off to sleep. Driving to here in the morning. If the snow won’t come to you… How long of a trip? Drive safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncletim Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s ok it gets us with the next one. Pattern is loaded on both. Today was good trends across guidance imo. Off to sleep. Driving to here in the morning. If the snow won’t come to you… Could be somewhere near Newfane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 a few snowy solutions 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 beautiful- looks mint to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The 16-17th window continues to look like the first chance for a wave tracking to our south with cold air in place. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 ^The 0z GFS, and now 6z have it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 9 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: beautiful- looks mint to me Good agreement for the coldest period we have seen so far, occurring in a favorable climo period, and a pattern that is conducive for shortwaves tracking to our south. As always it will come down to wave timing/luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 End of the 6z GFS run 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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