Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[WinterWxLuvr]

How this storm plays out greatly affects Tuesday

[mattie g]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

How this storm plays out greatly affects Tuesday

So...rain on rain?

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

there is a 10 degree difference between Canadaian and GFS at 12z tuesday

But the GEM is always cold though, isn't it? Lol

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But the GEM is always cold though, isn't it? Lol

Yea, I've been ignoring the GEM, even the ensembles. Biased way too cold

[Porsche]

don't look now but GFS is up to digital blue next weekend.

[baltosquid]

Trend for Friday/Saturday on GFS getting closer to a thump but would require a lot of temperature improvement and further moves SE

[paulythegun]

For those who didn't get what "convection over the MC" is (me until 60 seconds ago) here's a neat little study where i figured it out: 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022MS003503

Summary: Large-scale convection associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) initiates over the Indian Ocean and propagates eastward across the Maritime Continent (MC). Over the MC, MJO events are generally weakened due to complex interactions between the large-scale MJO and the MC landmass. 

[psuhoffman]

@TerpeastI agree the last 24 hours has not trended the way I want to see.  The biggest problem is after the front clears and we get the TPV into a good location...instead of energy continuing to dump in behind (and that would be our storm threat) it's trending towards the whole pattern immediately breaking down and the trough splitting/pulling back once the TPV slides east.  We get a temporary window with the look we want on the atlantic side as that TPV slides through the 50/50 but there is nothing behind it to amplify and once that 50/50 slides out we probably ridge out again.  

@Maestrobjwa this is the part you want to read

Positive Spin: It's still far enough out that it could change.  Also, both the EPS and now the GEFS ext both, people didnt talk about it but for weeks the GFS ext looked like hot garbage and was saying winter is over but now it shifted to the EPS weekly, both show the pattern recycling quickly into what we want by the end of January.  That is still time for us.  As as long as we do actually get to the canonical look by February we will be ok.  

Less positive analysis (for those that just want to feel good stop now)

I have some concerns regarding longer term patterns here.  Yes we are in a hostile PDO regime.  But that is NOT 100% responsible for this mess.  The other issue is we are also in a hostile tropical forcing regime and that is mostly due to the warm pool in the western tropical pacific and the IOD cycle.  Problem is that doesn't seem to be a temporary thing to me.  

The waters there are less influenced by the cyclical currents and patterns as other places.  The warming there, and I've read this from those that know way more about it than me, might simply be warming related in and around the MC.  That problem isn't going away. 

 

@Terpeast and @WxUSAF curious your take on this observation.  We've been in a repetitive cycle where during jet extensions the warmer Pac in general floods North America with such a torched airmass that we have no shot no matter what the longwave pattern over the east ends up being or the local storm track.  Then when the jet retracts and we build cold somewhere in the continent the PDO and MC forcing guaruntees it dumps into the west and we ridge to kingdom come in the east.  I also believe the warmer Atlantic and Gulf are causing the persistent TNH configuration with pumps the SER more than even a -3 Stdv block can do anything about.  We've seen that time and time again.  The problem is I am starting to see hints this might even repeat again.  After this current cycle by the time the cold does press east we are getting signs of the next jet extension which could scour the cold then are we are back to square one when we get a more favorable pattern late Jan/Feb?

The question is...are you seeing what I am seeing and what can mitigate this?  What do we need???  

[Ji]

11 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Trend for Friday/Saturday on GFS getting closer to a thump but would require a lot of temperature improvement and further moves SE

if you look at the trends...that storm is trending a bit more south every run. Wonder if we can get blocking to help out

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@TerpeastI agree the last 24 hours has not trended the way I want to see.  The biggest problem is after the front clears and we get the TPV into a good location...instead of energy continuing to dump in behind (and that would be our storm threat) it's trending towards the whole pattern immediately breaking down and the trough splitting/pulling back once the TPV slides east.  We get a temporary window with the look we want on the atlantic side as that TPV slides through the 50/50 but there is nothing behind it to amplify and once that 50/50 slides out we probably ridge out again.  

@Maestrobjwa this is the part you want to read

Positive Spin: It's still far enough out that it could change.  Also, both the EPS and now the GEFS ext both, people didnt talk about it but for weeks the GFS ext looked like hot garbage and was saying winter is over but now it shifted to the EPS weekly, both show the pattern recycling quickly into what we want by the end of January.  That is still time for us.  As as long as we do actually get to the canonical look by February we will be ok.  

Less positive analysis (for those that just want to feel good stop now)

I have some concerns regarding longer term patterns here.  Yes we are in a hostile PDO regime.  But that is NOT 100% responsible for this mess.  The other issue is we are also in a hostile tropical forcing regime and that is mostly due to the warm pool in the western tropical pacific and the IOD cycle.  Problem is that doesn't seem to be a temporary thing to me.  

The waters there are less influenced by the cyclical currents and patterns as other places.  The warming there, and I've read this from those that know way more about it than me, might simply be warming related in and around the MC.  That problem isn't going away. 

 

@Terpeast and @WxUSAF curious your take on this observation.  We've been in a repetitive cycle where during jet extensions the warmer Pac in general floods North America with such a torched airmass that we have no shot no matter what the longwave pattern over the east ends up being or the local storm track.  Then when the jet retracts and we build cold somewhere in the continent the PDO and MC forcing guaruntees it dumps into the west and we ridge to kingdom come in the east.  I also believe the warmer Atlantic and Gulf are causing the persistent TNH configuration with pumps the SER more than even a -3 Stdv block can do anything about.  We've seen that time and time again.  The problem is I am starting to see hints this might even repeat again.  After this current cycle by the time the cold does press east we are getting signs of the next jet extension which could scour the cold then are we are back to square one when we get a more favorable pattern late Jan/Feb?

The question is...are you seeing what I am seeing and what can mitigate this?  What do we need???  

a real nino dosent have this. they should not be having Nina cold and snow on the West coast during our Nino. in 2010...for the olympics....they couldnt buy any natural snow in Vancouver

[baltosquid]

To expand on next Fri/Sat, GFS trend has been pretty evident towards colder on lead-in. Over last 3 runs, freezing line has gone from being horizontal right through central PA, to reaching well into the WV apps but certainly not a strong, deep cold or anything yet. Baltimore went from 45 to 41. Energy for the storm is getting more separation from the deep pac NW vort. Little vort pops out from the lakes earlier and flattens the ridging over us some. More ridging over central Canada overtop the storm rather than all out front.

[brooklynwx99]

one of these things is not like the other

i do feel like the first depiction makes more sense synoptically but who knows at this point

[baltosquid]

Danger, anecdotal blend of models ahead:

 

Am I crazy to think that blending the GEM and GFS look on next Friday/Sat might work out for us?

edit: never mind, was looking at a 00z GEM panel. 12z is closer to 12z GFS.

[nj2va]

Go south, yee low pressure

[mattie g]

So much for a dry Ohio Valley/Upper Midwest during a Nino. They're in line for some beneficial rains just like we are!

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

one of these things is not like the other

i do feel like the first depiction makes more sense synoptically but who knows at this point

That ridge position into NW Canada with a TPV lobe in Quebec SHOULD mean that energy out west cuts under and slides east...but that has not been happening recently.  We've seen this play out a lot lately.  Everyone is focues solely on the upstream causes in the Pacific.  But how much might the warmer gulf and atlantic with the TNH also be playing a part?  Pumping the SER more than usually and adding downstream impediment to western troughs being able to slide east? 

[baltosquid]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

That ridge position into NW Canada with a TPV lobe in Quebec SHOULD mean that energy out west cuts under and slides east...but that has not been happening recently.  We've seen this play out a lot lately.  Everyone is focues solely on the upstream causes in the Pacific.  But how much might the warmer gulf and atlantic with the TNH also be playing a part?  Pumping the SER more than usually and adding downstream impediment to western troughs being able to slide east? 

In that reading, could next Friday’s wave, if it shoots off the coast further south, open the door for that slip to happen?

[Daniel Boone]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That ridge position into NW Canada with a TPV lobe in Quebec SHOULD mean that energy out west cuts under and slides east...but that has not been happening recently.  We've seen this play out a lot lately.  Everyone is focues solely on the upstream causes in the Pacific.  But how much might the warmer gulf and atlantic with the TNH also be playing a part?  Pumping the SER more than usually and adding downstream impediment to western troughs being able to slide east? 

That what once was rare SER -NAO hookup has become a normal occurrence recently. Hopefully the GooFuS is just factoring in that outcome with this run and the GEM is correct. If not well..... 

 Edit: to add the that , I believe it still boils down mainly to the PAC. Ultimately, down to the extremely warm WPAC SST'S and IO. A deeply dug trough down to BAJA argues for an Eastern Ridge as we all know. 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

veryone is focues solely on the upstream causes in the Pacific.  But how much might the warmer gulf and atlantic with the TNH also be playing a part?  Pumping the SER more than usually and adding downstream impediment to western troughs being able to slide east? 

Bluewave had mentioned in the past that the SER/WAR is effecting colder airmasses moving East and tends to cause issues with certain types of NAO blocks where the NAO hooks up with the SER.  So many ways to lose and too few to win off of these days.  

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That ridge position into NW Canada with a TPV lobe in Quebec SHOULD mean that energy out west cuts under and slides east...but that has not been happening recently.  We've seen this play out a lot lately.  Everyone is focues solely on the upstream causes in the Pacific.  But how much might the warmer gulf and atlantic with the TNH also be playing a part?  Pumping the SER more than usually and adding downstream impediment to western troughs being able to slide east? 

i think the GFS just buries it. doesn’t mean that it’s correct. even if it is correct, it just delays the cold air outbreak for a few days, it wouldn’t be disastrous or anything 

[Ji]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

i think the GFS just buries it. doesn’t mean that it’s correct. even if it is correct, it just delays the cold air outbreak for a few days, it wouldn’t be disastrous or anything 

its almost March dude.....we need stuff to happen now. Winter if flying by faster than normal

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

its almost March dude.....we need stuff to happen now. Winter if flying by faster than normal

no you don’t. you guys can hit average in 48 hours. definitely a couple of weeks

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

no you don’t. you guys can hit average in 48 hours. definitely a couple of weeks

im not here to hit average

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i think the GFS just buries it. doesn’t mean that it’s correct. even if it is correct, it just delays the cold air outbreak for a few days, it wouldn’t be disastrous or anything 

719

[TSG]

14 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Go south, yee low pressure

Iowa to Southern Indiana in 5 runs? It'll be on the NC/VA border by tomorrow night 

[Allsnow]

@Heisy gets his storm to track on the 12z gfs for the 20th 

[DCAlexandria]

1/20. WOOF


.

[TSSN+]

Least there’s a few snow threats this run. Not just cutters lol

[brooklynwx99]

yup, the GFS evolution is just delayed, not denied. you still get legit Arctic air into the pattern, it’s gotta go somewhere

[psuhoffman]

Since its been so long...just for reference...

This is what we want the antecedent airmass to look like as a wave comes at us

NOT THIS

It was closer to an even bigger event if the NS would have phased in.  But the setup was nice...way too far out to know if the GFS is even close.  I would like to see the ensembles start to show this discreet wave with a bit more clarity over the next couple days.  They picked up on this current wave from like day 15 which was amazing.  I don't expect that...but we want to see some hints at this on the ensembles soon.