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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill
Bob Chill

I'm too lazy to dig in my old hard drive but i did quite a bit of AO data crunching for DJFM some years back. Results spoke for themselves with the AO. NAO is much more volatile but there is almost al

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

This is NOT intended to criticize that look. It’s good. This is meant to say how close it’s getting to PERFECT.  In 24 hours it’s trended 75% of the way there already. But get those 2 anomalies c

wxmvpete
wxmvpete

That MillvilleWx guy is a pretty good dude also. Knows his stuff pretty darn well. P.S.A. for all the mets that contribute on here. It takes time away from their day (and nights depending on what

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 1:00 PM, Heisy said:


I’m not making anti-snow predictions. Just calling it how I see it. I want it to snow probably more than anyone on these forums. When it looks like a snowstorm is coming I’ll be excited as anyone, I’m probably the biggest weenie on here, didn’t you catch my posts on New Year’s Eve when we got those good runs?


I’m as frustrated as anyone. We’re getting stiffed tomorrow and then the 6z gefs looks like this. All I was saying is our next legit shot is probably post Jan 16th. It’s really unbelievable how long -PNA has been disrupting our patterns during the winter.

I guess being that we’re in a strong nino just have to be patient for 2nd half of winter

f19a26a69abdd09d565fc28e74fbfb9c.jpg

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Didn't last season feature cold in the NW specifically and a -PNA with a trof that kept settling in the W and SW also? Maybe this is all still Nina lag stuff that some red taggers have mentioned and once it's gone it's game on? Or maybe we are nearing time for another 684726485 word diatribe from PSU....I dunno at this point tbh. Hopeful we still get a typical Nino run of stormy winter even if only 5-10 days.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 1:32 PM, Terpeast said:

Tbh, I’m not too encouraged by what I’m seeing in the LR. At least not as encouraged as 2-3 days ago 

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I saw the gfs op and thought uh oh towards the later portion of the run. Gefs isn't quite as ominous but even there on the smoothed mean you still get that vibe. Could be a blip like saw about a week ago, we'll see.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 1:32 PM, Terpeast said:

Tbh, I’m not too encouraged by what I’m seeing in the LR. At least not as encouraged as 2-3 days ago 

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A Pacific jet extension would help improve the look out west. I believe retraction is favored when the tropical convection is over the MC though. All this stuff is intertwined. If you look at the actual SSTs there, its not surprising the MJO tends to stay in the 'bad phases'.

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Terpeast

Terpeast

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 1:54 PM, CAPE said:

A Pacific jet extension would help improve the look out west. I believe retraction is favored when the tropical convection is over the MC though. All this stuff is intertwined. If you look at the actual SSTs there, its not surprising the MJO tends to stay in the 'bad phases'.

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That’s what I was saying the other day about the MJO. We don’t want tropical convection too strong in the MC. 

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 1:32 PM, Terpeast said:

Tbh, I’m not too encouraged by what I’m seeing in the LR. At least not as encouraged as 2-3 days ago 

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What do you think about Feb ?  Some forecasters who went with above normal snow totals really need Feb to deliver.

Here the streak of less than 1 inch of snow is insanely long. Changes in the West Pac, hyper warm pool, marine heatwaves, and warmth everywhere is screwing up the outcomes with this Nino. 

 

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Terpeast

Terpeast

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 1:58 PM, frd said:

What do you think about Feb ?  Some forecasters who went with above normal snow totals really need Feb to deliver.

Here the streak of less than 1 inch of snow is insanely long. Changes in the West Pac, hyper warm pool, marine heatwaves, and warmth everywhere is screwing up the outcomes with this Nino. 

 

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By the time the MJO runs its course through 4-6, it’ll be late Jan. If it doesn’t reload back at 4, we still have a chance. But with that rug pull on tomorrow’s storm, I’m not so sure about above normal snowfall this year. Could still happen with 1 well timed wave with just enough cold air. We do have that STJ going for us. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 1:55 PM, Terpeast said:

That’s what I was saying the other day about the MJO. We don’t want tropical convection too strong in the MC. 

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Is it typical to see the SSTs so warm in that area during a strong Nino? I believe in a moderate CP event the waters around the MC tend to be colder, suppressing convection there.

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Terpeast

Terpeast

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 2:03 PM, CAPE said:

Is it typical to see the SSTs so warm in that area during a strong Nino? I believe in a moderate CP event the waters around the MC tend to be colder, suppressing convection there.

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It’s not typical, it should be colder or neutral there. The loudest person in the room is being drowned out by other noises

But if/when convection quiets over the MC, that is our chance

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 2:04 PM, Terpeast said:

It’s not typical, it should be colder or neutral there. The loudest person in the room is being drowned out by other noises

But if/when convection quiets over the MC, that is our chance

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Or we need other indices to overwhelm it. A significantly -AO with strong -NAO episodes help a lot. Also seeing a -EPO at the end of the ens runs. That is actually a cold look for most the lower 48 despite the pretty colors looking less impressive. Fwiw the extended products do exactly what we want to see with the blob of lower heights out west- weaken it/morph it into an Aleutian low with a ridge building out west. The latest Euro weeklies have below normal temps for the eastern third of the US from Jan 15 to Feb 18- end of the run.

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Terpeast

Terpeast

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 2:17 PM, CAPE said:

Or we need other indices to overwhelm it. A significantly -AO with strong -NAO episodes help a lot. Also seeing a -EPO at the end of the ens runs. That is actually a cold look for most the lower 48 despite the pretty colors looking less impressive. Fwiw the extended products do exactly what we want to see with the blob of lower heights out west- weaken it/morph it into an Aleutian low with a ridge building out west. The latest Euro weeklies have below normal temps for the eastern third  of the US from Jan 15 to Feb 18- end of the run.

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Lets hope it plays out exactly like this. The weaker SPV should help, and the 4-6 convection should fade by the end of the month or sooner. 

what really shocked and puzzled me is that -VP anomalies were stuck over 7/8 for 6 months, and then suddenly it shifted and now there’s suppression over 7/8/1 despite record warm ssts in nino 4

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 2:23 PM, Terpeast said:

Lets hope it plays out exactly like this. The weaker SPV should help, and the 4-6 convection should fade by the end of the month or sooner. 

what really shocked and puzzled me is that -VP anomalies were stuck over 7/8, and then suddenly it shifted and now there’s suppression over 7/8/1 despite record warm ssts in nino 4

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I saw that too. Then I looked at the actual SSTs, and the temps near the MC are as warm or a bit warmer. Other factors favoring convection there.

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IronTy

IronTy

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 12:41 PM, Weather Will said:

It seems this winter so far there is a lot of potential always at Day 10+ and that it keeps fizzling out for one reason or another as we get closer.  

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I don't know, I don't often look at the LR maps, but when I do they portend the most SEVERE cold seen in the L48 in years.  This time is no different.  Be informed.  

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Terpeast

Terpeast

Posted
Posted

All ens models agree on a colder window between Jan 15 and Jan 20. 850mb temps will be below normal during those 5-6 days. Now the question is, can we get a well-timed wave passing over us within that window? Probably not at the beginning since that'll be the FROPA bringing colder air. But can it happen in the middle or at the end? 

I don't see a discrete SS wave in the 24h precip anomaly nor MSLP anomaly panels... at least not yet. Too far out to answer that question for now.

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