Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Mid Atlantic is in for multiple shellackings.

This thread is becoming increasingly important...it's clear that we need to call a timeout and make some in game adjustments.  It's go time.

[mattie g]

52 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Lol. If you don’t see danger in these maps then I guess rock on. I’m just commenting on the map shown. 10 day maps are useless.

 

But why take a snapshot of one point in time and make a sweeping generalization about how things could go to hell? Roll that 500 look forward and you have the TPV pinched under that massive block with a piece of energy ejecting out under it from the southwest...and it's cold.

There's no reason to think that a strong Nino will result in a SE ridge that would blast us with warm air and kill our snow chances during prime climo.

[RedSky]

4 minutes ago, Jebman said:

It's astonishing how advanced the modeling is these days, sniffing out storms 3 WEEKS in advance. 

Then poops them away three days out

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

But why take a snapshot of one point in time and make a sweeping generalization about how things could go to hell? Roll that 500 look forward and you have the TPV pinched under that massive block with a piece of energy ejecting out under it from the southwest...and it's cold.

There's no reason to think that a strong Nino will result in a SE ridge that would blast us with warm air and kill our snow chances during prime climo.

I didn’t post it. I only commented on what was posted

[Terpeast]

12 minutes ago, mattie g said:

But why take a snapshot of one point in time and make a sweeping generalization about how things could go to hell? Roll that 500 look forward and you have the TPV pinched under that massive block with a piece of energy ejecting out under it from the southwest...and it's cold.

There's no reason to think that a strong Nino will result in a SE ridge that would blast us with warm air and kill our snow chances during prime climo.

Mild just 3 days then cold, if going by that op run

This is the kind of warminista cherry picking that really grinds my gears. A lot of that goes on in the NYC forum (not naming names)

[jayyy]

Then poops them away three days out
 

Being off by 100 miles and a few degrees 2+ weeks out is models being astonishingly accurate.

[CAPE]

This morning I made a post mentioning the EPS was hinting at the possibility of a following wave after the 13-14th storm, as colder air comes in behind and the boundary shifts further SE. On the 12z run there is a more notable signal for that.

[psuhoffman]

10 hours ago, CAPE said:

Looking ahead to mid month and beyond for storm opportunities, there is a strong signal for the 13-14th window, but as discussed the trough axis is still a bit too far west this period so the favored storm track is to our west. This is far enough out to keep an eye on though. As modeled the cold will be advancing eastward during/just beyond this period. Maybe a trailing wave scenario as the boundary moves eastward around MLK day.

Beyond that as modeled the h5 pattern progression should bring colder air to the east coast with an establishing NAO block and a TPV lobe located underneath. There is an indication of a southern stream shortwave moving eastward, in addition to NS vorticity associated with the southward displaced TPV. The NS probably wont be 'quiet' during this time with the TPV depicted to be that far south. There should finally be some cold though.

Agree with your analysis.  Having a TPV displaced under the block would make this a much colder look than recent Nino blocking regimes like 2016 and 2010.  It would make for a noisier pattern not as good for a long track system.  On the good v bad side it would increase the chances of suppression and a 1977 type outcome but it would also open the door to a dynamic phased bomb storm like January 1966.  But it would most definitely remove the "it's just not cold enough" part of the equation, assuming we get the TPV displaced far enough SE to promote a favorable storm track.  

[CAPE]

Also from my post this morning- again at 12z there is an indication of a shortwave moving eastward in the southern stream under that Baffin block.. 'Big dog' potential for around the 18th maybe?? Possibly more than a squirrel anyway..

 

[psuhoffman]

Getting a TPV stuck under the block comes with risk/reward.  If it gets displaced correctly it can be awesome.  However, if it gets displaced into Western Canada it creates a SER and cutters despite a block.  If it gets displaced too far south it suppresses everything.  

Personally if I got to choose, which to be clear I do NOT, in a nino and that kind of block I would prefer NOT having the TPV there to complicate things.  Just throw a bunch of STJ waves into the east with a block to hold in whatever somewhat cold domestic air we can manage.  I like simple.  Of course I reserve the right to change my mind in a few weeks as we build a glacier from snow on snow on snow if this goes right.  

BTW back when seasonal forecasts were coming out I saw some poo pooing 1966 as a "lesser" option because technically there was "less" snow than the more epic seasons.  But there was a couple weeks in there where it was truly COLD with snow on snow on snow and one of those storms being a triple phased bomb tucked into the delmarva.  Come on, only Ji would come out of that anything but thanking whatever god they believe in.  

[frd]

Just now, CAPE said:

Also from my post this morning- again at 12z there is an indication of a shortwave moving eastward in the southern stream under that Baffin block.. 'Big dog' potential for around the 18th maybe?? Possibly more than a squirrel anyway..

 

More than a squirrel sounds awesome in this new base state . Meanwhile Tip talking about 1977 in the NE forum . Bring it !

 

[frd]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Getting a TPV stuck under the block comes with risk/reward.  If it gets displaced correctly it can be awesome.  However, if it gets displaced into Western Canada it creates a SER and cutters despite a block.  If it gets displaced too far south it suppresses everything.  

I believe this happened several years back,  what was a direct Arctic air mass modeled to drop SE from central Canada into the East ended up becoming a hybrid Blue Northern responsible for the devastating Texas power grid collapse. I hope your first potential scenario does not occur.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Also from my post this morning- again at 12z there is an indication of a shortwave moving eastward in the southern stream under that Baffin block.. 'Big dog' potential for around the 18th maybe?? Possibly more than a squirrel anyway..

 

I am NOT saying there is no potential for something good early in that pattern.  There is.  And maybe that will determine if it ends up an epic run or just a one hit wonder... but perhaps we are rushing the evolution, a common thing.  It is possible, the way I play this out in my head, that we get some cutters as the TPV initially is displaced west...then as it slides east it becomes suppressive...then finally it weakens and ends up in the 50/50 space and THAT is when our best chance of a HECS comes, as the flow behind it becomes less noisy and there is room for a juiced up STJ wave to attack the cold left behind.   If we want to go for a 2010 style epic season...we get a phased monster as the TPV slides over us...then the STJ HECS a week later!  

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, frd said:

I believe this happened several years back,  what was a direct Arctic air mass modeled to drop SE from central Canada into the East ended up becoming a hybrid Blue Northern responsible for the devastating Texas power grid collapse. I hope your first potential scenario does not occur.

Feb 2021 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Getting a TPV stuck under the block comes with risk/reward.  If it gets displaced correctly it can be awesome.  However, if it gets displaced into Western Canada it creates a SER and cutters despite a block.  If it gets displaced too far south it suppresses everything.  

Personally if I got to choose, which to be clear I do NOT, in a nino and that kind of block I would prefer NOT having the TPV there to complicate things.  Just throw a bunch of STJ waves into the east with a block to hold in whatever somewhat cold domestic air we can manage.  I like simple.  Of course I reserve the right to change my mind in a few weeks as we build a glacier from snow on snow on snow if this goes right.  

BTW back when seasonal forecasts were coming out I saw some poo pooing 1966 as a "lesser" option because technically there was "less" snow than the more epic seasons.  But there was a couple weeks in there where it was truly COLD with snow on snow on snow and one of those storms being a triple phased bomb tucked into the delmarva.  Come on, only Ji would come out of that anything but thanking whatever god they believe in.  

If ens guidance is correct it won't be displaced that far south for long- looks like some of the energy shifts east into the 50-50 region and then it retreats northward in a more typical location over N Hudson.

[CAPE]

40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am NOT saying there is no potential for something good early in that pattern.  There is.  And maybe that will determine if it ends up an epic run or just a one hit wonder... but perhaps we are rushing the evolution, a common thing.  It is possible, the way I play this out in my head, that we get some cutters as the TPV initially is displaced west...then as it slides east it becomes suppressive...then finally it weakens and ends up in the 50/50 space and THAT is when our best chance of a HECS comes, as the flow behind it becomes less noisy and there is room for a juiced up STJ wave to attack the cold left behind.   If we want to go for a 2010 style epic season...we get a phased monster as the TPV slides over us...then the STJ HECS a week later!  

See my previous post. TPV may very well be transient in that location. The process you describe here might have to happen in 72 hours lol.

I was just pointing out the potential on the EPS for around the 18th. Might end up being nothing. Doesn't have to play out following some ideal progression though. Who knows how long this pattern will even last.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

No one mentioned the 12z Euro Day 10 has a block over Alaska and a block over Greenland. Storm moving in. 

https://ibb.co/r20wwDn

Much more snowy pattern if it's true. 

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

No one mentioned the 12z Euro Day 10 has a block over Alaska and a block over Greenland. Storm moving in. 

https://ibb.co/r20wwDn

Much more snowy pattern if it's true. 

Oh crap its over, end times are here 

[psuhoffman]

34 minutes ago, CAPE said:

See my previous post. TPV may very well be transient in that location. The process you describe here might have to happen in 72 hours lol.

I was just pointing out the potential on the EPS for around the 18th. Might end up being nothing. Doesn't have to play out following some ideal progression though. Who knows how long this pattern will even last.

I just know...if we get out of the pattern at the end of the GEPS and EPS without any significant snow...then its time to give this up 

[Weather Will]

Busy day saw a post earlier is anyone worried about the MJO mid month?

[SnowGoose69]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Busy day saw a post earlier is anyone worried about the MJO mid month?

You have to be somewhat, that said the models have been getting increasingly fish flop worthy with it in recent days.  The tendency this last 8 weeks has been GEFS too strong, EPS too weak, BOTH way too slow...so if you take that blend now, yeah you gotta be worried a bit.  That would work out to a pass through 4-5-6 but faster by a decent amount than either suite shows....the thing we'd want to avoid is it failing to make the strong pass through 7-8-1 thereafter or worse, re-emerging into 3 again in early February.  

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Busy day saw a post earlier is anyone worried about the MJO mid month?

MJO is one of many contributing components to the overall pattern, and the magnitude of any impacts(in any one phase) are not a constant.

Short answer is no. 

Why worry about any of this stuff?

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You have to be somewhat, that said the models have been getting increasingly fish flop worthy with it in recent days.  The tendency this last 8 weeks has been GEFS too strong, EPS too weak, BOTH way too slow...so if you take that blend now, yeah you gotta be worried a bit.  That would work out to a pass through 4-5-6 but faster by a decent amount than either suite shows....the thing we'd want to avoid is it failing to make the strong pass through 7-8-1 thereafter or worse, re-emerging into 3 again in early February.  

 Best if we scoot through 4-6 as a weak wave or inside COD and reemerge at 7, then we can hunt for big dogs. Most biggies start as a wave in the N Pac while the mjo is at 7. Could be early Feb

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

 Best if we scoot through 4-6 as a weak wave or inside COD and reemerge at 7, then we can hunt for big dogs. Most biggies start as a wave in the N Pac while the mjo is at 7. Could be early Feb

I never know what to think about wave magnitude.  BAM on twitter has argued historically he can find cases where insanely strong waves in weak Ninos through 4-5-6 did nothing negative to the pattern in the East and likewise where strong waves through 8-1-2 in big Ninas did nothing favorable but pointed out where a weak wave through 4-5 killed us in a weak Nino.  I wonder if as some argue the MJO probably more often than not does not influence things when you have an ENSO event that is well coupled.

[Weather Will]

Thanks all!!!!

[nj2va]

Yes, its an OP but what a gnarly west based -NAO its spitting out in the MR.  Yes, I’m sure many will freak out at the surface depiction of another cutter but I’ll take my chances with a -NAO like this as we approach prime climo.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yes, its an OP but what a gnarly west based -NAO its spitting out in the MR.  Yes, I’m sure many will freak out at the surface depiction of another cutter but I’ll take my chances with a -NAO like this as we approach prime climo.

The Stratosphere warming started Dec 25, so it's showing again that the lagged -NAO a lot of times works. Lag at this time of the year is +25-30 days, but +19 days shown there isn't a bad fit. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

18z gfs not as blocky as 12z Euro, but you still have 498dm moving into the Upper Midwest at Day 10. 

[Daniel Boone]

49 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I never know what to think about wave magnitude.  BAM on twitter has argued historically he can find cases where insanely strong waves in weak Ninos through 4-5-6 did nothing negative to the pattern in the East and likewise where strong waves through 8-1-2 in big Ninas did nothing favorable but pointed out where a weak wave through 4-5 killed us in a weak Nino.  I wonder if as some argue the MJO probably more often than not does not influence things when you have an ENSO event that is well coupled.

Good point. Some of the great wall to wall Winter's ie, 77-78 featured continued cold in the East during the MJO warm Ph Tour in January. Sometimes other Drivers apparently just override it. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Good point. Some of the great wall to wall Winter's ie, 77-78 featured continued cold in the East during the MJO warm Ph Tour in January. Sometimes other Drivers apparently just override it. 

Thats what I’m hoping for - that the neg AO blocking overrides the MJO and gets cold over us, and when the cold relaxes, we get into the favorable mjo phases and keep blocking up top