Steve25 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 How do you guys feel about the weekend of the 13th/14th? Does the overall pattern look like it would lend itself to another NW/cutter type of track like mid-week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 1:14 PM, Steve25 said: How do you guys feel about the weekend of the 13th/14th? Does the overall pattern look like it would lend itself to another NW/cutter type of track like mid-week? Expand Looking that way on the means currently. Could end up more Miller B-ish. Still a ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Even Webb is honking for the MLK day week this morning 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 LR looks good, but I’m worried about the MJO trending stronger in the warm phases. I hope that’s wrong, but if it isn’t it might interfere with The Look. We want it to stay weak enough. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 An event around MLK day has been on my radar for a few days....the period after that also looks favorable for below normal temps with an active stream. With the way the past few winters have gone id much prefer suppression risk over having to worry about temps. A couple inches along with a period of below normal temps would do a lot for morale around here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 1:43 PM, Shad said: An event around MLK day has been on my radar for a few days....the period after that also looks favorable for below normal temps with an active stream. With the way the past few winters have gone id much prefer suppression risk over having to worry about temps. A couple inches along with a period of below normal temps would do a lot for morale around here. Expand After the past 7 years, a couple inches and cold weather in a Nino in late January is probably going to lower morale even more than it already is 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 1:46 PM, osfan24 said: After the past 7 years, a couple inches and cold weather in a Nino in late January is probably going to lower morale even more than it already is Expand I can only speak for myself, of course, but any legit cold would only raise my morale. I'm a winter lover all the way through. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 GFS holds on possibility of a front end thump of snow for the monster rainstorm coming next tuesday. NW of the metropolitan fringe (areas getting snow saturday) should do best. But we all flip to heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 11:55 AM, CAPE said: Pretty radical look at the end of the 6z GFS Expand Just checked out the latest AO forecast. Members going even more negative than yesterday. Consensus on - 4 SD AO. Some members take it to - 6 SD. Wow !! 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Thats a hell of a ridge on the OP GFS. Goodness. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Next tuesdays cutter sets the thermal boundary for any follow up waves. GGEM makes that boundary much more favorable and has been consistently more friendly than the gfs. But gfs isn’t too far off… Late next week is still a time to watch closely. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 4:49 PM, WxUSAF said: Next tuesdays cutter sets the thermal boundary for any follow up waves. GGEM makes that boundary much more favorable and has been consistently more friendly than the gfs. But gfs isn’t too far off… Late next week is still a time to watch closely. Expand GGEM gives us snow every winter like we are Garrett County bro 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 This boundary type system could work if the N/S pushes out ahead a little farther E or the stj wave is slower/delayed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 5:10 PM, Heisy said: This boundary type system could work if the N/S pushes out ahead a little farther E or the stj wave is slower/delayed . Expand Op gfs looked interesting post 1/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 5:10 PM, Heisy said: This boundary type system could work if the N/S pushes out ahead a little farther E or the stj wave is slower/delayed . Expand The alt scenario is scary. Deepen that western trough and bubble that massive SER and we go full torch 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Some of y'alls ability to look at fantasy swirls and posit the WORST POSSIBLE OUTCOME is practically a super-power. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Why are we even looking at op runs 10 days out? They couldn’t even get it right at 5 days for this Saturday’s storm 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 5:47 PM, North Balti Zen said: Some of y'alls ability to look at fantasy swirls and posit the WORST POSSIBLE OUTCOME is practically a super-power. Expand Lol. If you don’t see danger in these maps then I guess rock on. I’m just commenting on the map shown. 10 day maps are useless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 5:59 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol. If you don’t see danger in these maps then I guess rock on. I’m just commenting on the map shown. 10 day maps are useless. Expand I see eventual anafront/overrunning chances in that....I also see dead people. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 It's cool wxluvr - not specifically giving you the business but it is the posting style of a bunch of people in this thread to take a 10+ day map and say "if we-change-a-few-things-it's-Dubai-in-three-weeks" kinda stuff that's all. It's kinda funny taking the long view. And if you read enough of those posts etc. Peace, friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Interesting to watch the evolution of the blocking pattern on the last few runs of the CMC Ens - can't say I don't enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 6:10 PM, North Balti Zen said: It's cool wxluvr - not specifically giving you the business but it is the posting style of a bunch of people in this thread to take a 10+ day map and say "if we-change-a-few-things-it's-Dubai-in-three-weeks" kinda stuff that's all. It's kinda funny taking the long view. And if you read enough of those posts etc. Peace, friend. Expand All good. Wasn’t being snappy. I just took one look at that thing and said whoa. But you’re right, one could easily say modify this a little and it’s game on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 6:06 PM, BristowWx said: I see eventual anafront/overrunning chances in that....I also see dead people. Yes! Was going to mention that’s an anafrontal setup if altered a little bit. Didn’t want to get trolled too much lolAnd to those saying stop analyzing day 10 maps. I know it’s 10 days, but you can still get a an idea that you might have a storm threat in the range. I like to see OPs show a path to victory ina given pattern. Storms never really pop out of nowhere. We’ve been tracking Saturday’s storm for over 240 hours . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Mid Atlantic is in for multiple shellackings. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 6:39 PM, Heisy said: Yes! Was going to mention that’s an anafrontal setup if altered a little bit. Didn’t want to get trolled too much lol And to those saying stop analyzing day 10 maps. I know it’s 10 days, but you can still get a an idea that you might have a storm threat in the range. I like to see OPs show a path to victory ina given pattern. Storms never really pop out of nowhere. We’ve been tracking Saturday’s storm for over 240 hours . Expand It's astonishing how advanced the modeling is these days, sniffing out storms 3 WEEKS in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 6:49 PM, Jebman said: Mid Atlantic is in for multiple shellackings. Expand This thread is becoming increasingly important...it's clear that we need to call a timeout and make some in game adjustments. It's go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 5:59 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol. If you don’t see danger in these maps then I guess rock on. I’m just commenting on the map shown. 10 day maps are useless. Expand But why take a snapshot of one point in time and make a sweeping generalization about how things could go to hell? Roll that 500 look forward and you have the TPV pinched under that massive block with a piece of energy ejecting out under it from the southwest...and it's cold. There's no reason to think that a strong Nino will result in a SE ridge that would blast us with warm air and kill our snow chances during prime climo. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 6:54 PM, Jebman said: It's astonishing how advanced the modeling is these days, sniffing out storms 3 WEEKS in advance. Expand Then poops them away three days out 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 6:59 PM, mattie g said: But why take a snapshot of one point in time and make a sweeping generalization about how things could go to hell? Roll that 500 look forward and you have the TPV pinched under that massive block with a piece of energy ejecting out under it from the southwest...and it's cold. There's no reason to think that a strong Nino will result in a SE ridge that would blast us with warm air and kill our snow chances during prime climo. Expand I didn’t post it. I only commented on what was posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 6:59 PM, mattie g said: But why take a snapshot of one point in time and make a sweeping generalization about how things could go to hell? Roll that 500 look forward and you have the TPV pinched under that massive block with a piece of energy ejecting out under it from the southwest...and it's cold. There's no reason to think that a strong Nino will result in a SE ridge that would blast us with warm air and kill our snow chances during prime climo. Expand Mild just 3 days then cold, if going by that op run This is the kind of warminista cherry picking that really grinds my gears. A lot of that goes on in the NYC forum (not naming names) 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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