Heisy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 4:32 PM, Terpeast said: Still a TPV in Ontario. That's a pretty cold and stormy lookYea cmc has that which is a semi savior. GFS not really and you can see how the temps react . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 4:34 PM, Heisy said: Yea cmc has that which is a semi savior. GFS not really and you can see how the temps react . Expand Some ridge improvements at the end of the op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Been some hints of an MLK storm. Minus the next Tuesday deal (trip to the mountains?) that period is what interests me most 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 4:49 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Been some hints of an MLK storm. Minus the next Tuesday deal (trip to the mountains?) that period is what interests me most Expand Agreed. I’ll start the thread. In all honesty, the pattern is just super active starting this weekend. And there is arctic air nearby. Going to be a lot of precip either way I think. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 4:29 PM, Heisy said: So we all knew there was gonna be a western cold dump during this time frame. But still man, what’s it gonna take to get +PNA? Voodoo? .We had a pna for most of Dec. how did that work for you lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 CMC ens made a nice move in the correct way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 if we're going to overanalyze OP runs, the CMC would be sick. that massive western vort would get squeezed under the block with a 50/50 developing 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 GFS run is active and interesting once we get past next weeks rainer. MLK potential and then clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 In happier news, GEFS has The Look starting MLK weekend. PV trapped under a mega -NAO/AO with some ridging developing out west. 19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 The question I’m wondering is how many cutters will it take to finally get legit lower heights under the block in 50/50 land. End of euro, prob have to run that another 3-5 days+ for us to have a good setup . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 It does look like the GEFS wants to spill +heights into the EPO-WPO domain now. I guess it's caving to the EPS in this regard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 3:13 AM, psuhoffman said: @Stormchaserchuck1…this produced 3 snow events and one of our epic Nino snow runs. -pna. I think this is where we’re headed. Yes or no, are you saying this wouldn’t work anymore? Expand You really think that's a -pna, with a trough across the N. pacific from Japan to the West coast? It seems like LR models are evolving this way, and my research has highlighted the Jan 19th period as the pattern change, so let's see if it holds going forward. If a trough develops under a -WPO ridge, we may be in business. I would also like that Pacific pattern to develop before the NAO is rising up from negative (KU storms). The SE ridge/Aleutian ridge may linger though, I'm not 100% on that changing before the 19/20. But these are really good trends today in the PNA region for the long range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 7:10 PM, Heisy said: The question I’m wondering is how many cutters will it take to finally get legit lower heights under the block in 50/50 land. End of euro, prob have to run that another 3-5 days+ for us to have a good setup . Expand Your question is the same one that I (and I am sure most) are asking after that Euro run. Last year, I get it - raging SER a la Nina. But what do we need now to break this OHV track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 4:29 PM, Heisy said: So we all knew there was gonna be a western cold dump during this time frame. But still man, what’s it gonna take to get +PNA? Voodoo? . Expand During most -PDO cycle ninos we still get a lot of -PNA, but with a block its supposed to overcome it. A -PDO can actually be awesome with blocking if the systems slide east under the block instead of getting stuck out west with a SER linking to the block. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 7:25 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: You really think that's a -pna, with a trough across the N. pacific from Japan to the West coast? It seems like LR models are evolving this way, and my research has highlighted the Jan 19th period as the pattern change, so let's see if it holds going forward. If a trough develops under a -WPO ridge, we may be in business. I would also like that Pacific pattern to develop before the NAO is rising up from negative (KU storms). The SE ridge/Aleutian ridge may linger though, I'm not 100% on that changing before the 19/20. But these are really good trends today in the PNA region for the long range. Expand PNA values from that time period 1966 1 15 -1.725 1966 1 16 -1.642 1966 1 17 -1.534 1966 1 18 -1.542 1966 1 19 -1.654 1966 1 20 -1.739 1966 1 21 -1.622 1966 1 22 -1.402 1966 1 23 -1.269 1966 1 24 -1.26 1966 1 25 -1.204 1966 1 26 -1.255 1966 1 27 -1.369 1966 1 28 -1.562 1966 1 29 -1.333 1966 1 30 -0.903 1966 1 31 -0.927 However, I agree that while the numerical value is a -PNA there is a HUGE difference between a -PNA linked up with the NS in a full latitude trough and a -PNA due to cut off STJ energy crashing into the southwest with ridging over top of it. But technically it is still a -PNA. I was just trying to see if you think that setup can still work. It appears you do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 4:28 PM, clskinsfan said: GFS brining the goods again for the Tuesday thump. Like 6 inches out here. Sadly it is followed by a torrential dumping of rain. I will be out there standing over my snowboard with an umbrella getting that last measurement. Expand That's exactly what I need to clean my stream out! It has been 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 5:47 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: GFS run is active and interesting once we get past next weeks rainer. MLK potential and then clippers.Huh? Clippers still exist? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Here we go again 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 8:29 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Here we go again Expand i bet we end up seeing more snow on Tuesday than saturday smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 8:32 PM, Ji said: i bet we end up seeing more snow on Tuesday than saturday smhIt’s always the storm after the storm… after the storm. I’m more interested in MLK Day. Tuesday has no shot in the metro. Hope I’m wrong but don’t see it going well. Bet @clskinsfan will be fretting and end up with 5” anyway tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 8:29 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Here we go again Expand Fall line again 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 8:25 PM, jayyy said: Thought the better sampling aspect was a debunked theory… guess not. Expand Beyond HR 72, my preferred model suites are the 00z and 12z because they incorporate fresh upper air data. On 1/3/2024 at 8:18 PM, Chris78 said: On the Lwx forecast discussion they discussed better sampling later tonight as the second shortwave comes on shore on the west coast. Sounded like they expected more model agreement late tonight/ Tomorrow as the shortwaves are both over land. Kind of funny to read that. I thought that was an old weenie fable when things don't look great. Expand The Pacific Ocean is a data hole. While we have increased capabilities with GOES-R, nothing will beat a sampled atmosphere from an upper air balloon. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 8:50 PM, Terpeast said: Fall line again Expand I read that at first as "fail line again." That shows you where I'm at these days lol. In all seriousness, I am really, really hopeful for this period from mid January into February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 9:48 PM, osfan24 said: I read that at first as "fail line again." That shows you where I'm at these days lol. In all seriousness, I am really, really hopeful for this period from mid January into February.I have a bad feeling about February now. We better score as early and often as we can now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 11:36 PM, Ji said: I have a bad feeling about February now. We better score as early and often as we can nowYou have bad feelings when it’s literally snowing outside. “I can see the back edge in Nashville”. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 11:43 PM, jayyy said: You have bad feelings when it’s literally snowing outside. “I can see the back edge in Nashville”.I am just wondering if we we are going to get our severe blocking now instead of later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 11:54 PM, Ji said: I am just wondering if we we are going to get our severe blocking now instead of later Expand We KU here. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 11:54 PM, Ji said: I am just wondering if we we are going to get our severe blocking now instead of later Expand Didn't the blocking in most of our best Niños come later (like after mid-Jan?) Edit: Like @CAPE's post, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 New edition of Euro Weeklies implies a strong west based block for 2+ weeks. Can still see it here, and in later panels. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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