psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Looks like a trof to me, just smoothed over. Granted there aren't pretty Penn State blue colors there, but that look is far from troublesome imho. Agreed but there should be blue! Yea it’s a trough. Ugh never mind. I think we will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Agreed but there should be blue! Yea it’s a trough. Ugh never mind. I think we will be fine. Lol...focus on the weekend and enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Lol...focus on the weekend and enjoy! No it’s a Nino. I want all the snow! Now. Later. Later when it’s now and now when it’s later. I want to steal Docs DeLorean so I can experience the now and later snow at the same damn time. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You skip right to the negative of every post Well I mean...it's been nothing but bad news and things going wrong the last 7 years, compounded by more bad news of a potential negative change in climo. I think I've been interpreting everything in that lense...Now to be fair, the main part of your post pointed out a speculative negative...so I kinda went "UGH" because again, we've had so many negatives over the last 7 years, and often your posts during that stretch (that are factual--not criticizing that or saying you shouldn't say something) have been bad news...I guess it's a bit of a learned reaction! You haven't been able to deliver much good news before now, so I assume it's gonna be bad, lol And anytime you post even a tiny concern, it seems magnified...but that part is a me problem so pay that no mind, lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well I mean...it's been nothing but bad news and things going wrong the last 7 years, compounded by more bad news of a potential negative change in climo. I think I've been interpreting everything in that lense...Now to be fair, the main part of your post pointed out a speculative negative...so I kinda went "UGH" because again, we've had so many negatives over the last 7 years, and often your posts during that stretch (that are factual--not criticizing that or saying you shouldn't say something) have been bad news...I guess it's a bit of a learned reaction! You haven't been able to deliver much good news before now, so I assume it's gonna be bad, lol And anytime you post even a tiny concern, it seems magnified...but that part is a me problem so pay that no mind, lol I’m going to start specifying the parts of my posts you aren’t allowed to read. Here I fixed it for you. Try this again. 47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Read the Bolded part Since I know how some react to any non rainbow and unicorns analytical statement I make let me be clear I’m very optimistic we will be fine. NOW STOP READING This is just speculative. The old gefs looks didn’t bother me too much. Yea I didn’t love anything looking that way but I was 90% sure it was out to lunch. This though…is slightly and I mean only slightly troubling. Look at the pac pattern the last week of Jan. 1 should produce a trough at 2! But it’s not. That’s been consistent on the euro for a while. We get the pacific we want but… I think that’s wrong too. And yea I know by Feb 7 it starts showing a trough. But it keeps pushing that back. Not the pacific but the downstream effects. Not much blue anywhere on that map though outside the Nino n pac low. 2 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Hot dog emoji . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Gfs almost mows us down mid month. Send that about 100 miles south and kaboom 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: Hot dog emoji . Pretty, but a day 12 op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 00z GFS says busy times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Pretty, but a day 12 op?Obviously a sense of sarcasm in my post. Just carrying over the excitement of the weekend event trends tonight. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Gfs is colddd and active long range. Bring it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Since I know how some react to any non rainbow and unicorns analytical statement I make let me be clear I am very optimistic we will be fine. This is just speculative. The old gefs looks didn’t bother me too much. Yea I didn’t love anything looking that way but I was 90% sure it was out to lunch. This though…is slightly and I mean only slightly troubling. Look at the pac pattern the last week of Jan. 1 should produce a trough at 2! But it’s not. That’s been consistent on the euro for a while. We get the pacific we want but… I think that’s wrong too. And yea I know by Feb 7 it starts showing a trough. But it keeps pushing that back. Not the pacific but the downstream effects. Not much blue anywhere on that map though outside the Nino n pac low. Yeah I've been speculating in my head (dangerous) that this upcoming blocking period mid-late Jan may be the best part of the winter. I have concerns that when the MJO swings back around by early Feb that it will combine with +AAM and overcharge the Pac jet again and you get that sort of east-based nino look like the weeklies are showing there. That's a long ways off, but been pondering that. I think this -NAO episode mid-Jan is going to be a good one though. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: @Stormchaserchuck1…this produced 3 snow events and one of our epic Nino snow runs. -pna. I think this is where we’re headed. Yes or no, are you saying this wouldn’t work anymore? With a -3 or -4 sigma NAO don’t you need a -PNA anyways, like a +PNA wouldn’t work, again long range and analyzing teles are not my strong suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, griteater said: Yeah I've been speculating in my head (dangerous) that this upcoming blocking period mid-late Jan may be the best part of the winter. I have concerns that when the MJO swings back around by early Feb that it will combine with +AAM and overcharge the Pac jet again and you get that sort of east-based nino look like the weeklies are showing there. That's a long ways off, but been pondering that. I think this -NAO episode mid-Jan is going to be a good one though. 2015-16 style that kind of pattern reminds me more of Jan 2011 / Feb 2021 / Mar 2018 though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: No it’s a Nino. I want all the snow! Now. Later. Later when it’s now and now when it’s later. I want to steal Docs DeLorean so I can experience the now and later snow at the same damn time. This. Sig material lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GEFS is on board 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 25 minutes ago, griteater said: Yeah I've been speculating in my head (dangerous) that this upcoming blocking period mid-late Jan may be the best part of the winter. I have concerns that when the MJO swings back around by early Feb that it will combine with +AAM and overcharge the Pac jet again and you get that sort of east-based nino look like the weeklies are showing there. That's a long ways off, but been pondering that. I think this -NAO episode mid-Jan is going to be a good one though. Except pac jet extensions set up epic snow runs in some of the past Nino analogs. That pack looks fine. Should teleconnect to an eastern trough. Of course that was with a less torched pacific sst 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Front end thump potential has increased a bit for the Jan 9-10 storm over the last 2 GEFS runs, with the usual places favored in these types of events. A stronger 50-50 low is one reason. Pretty nice surface HP placement and CAD sig with precip on the doorstep of the western zones. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS is on board I like the extension of the heights into Alaska, but doesn't this screen cold dry/warm wet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 We saw some step backs last night in LR, let’s hope that doesn’t continue at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Yeah. The 6Z GFS has a really nice thump with the Tuesday system. I would like to see us dryslot sooner after that. But we take whatever crumbs we can get. Thumpity thump thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Bamwx cancelled winter again for 11th time 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Bamwx cancelled winter again for 11th time They just did a video the other day about how the PV was splitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Ji said: Bamwx cancelled winter again for 11th time Explains Heisy's post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 hours ago, Heisy said: We saw some step backs last night in LR, let’s hope that doesn’t continue at 12z . Yeah, Model reflection of MJO warm phases projection along with Jet Ext.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: Explains Heisy's post above. He seems more jumpy than the models 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 He’s just trendy 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GGEM has snow into the cities before the absolute deluge next week. Gfs is damn close also. Both are big hits for I81 corridor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Maybe some more front end action next tues: that storm is quite productive with precip: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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