CAPE Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 lol at the whole jinx thing on a science based board. It is time for a thread. The threat is legit, and it keeps this thread from getting too cluttered. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 On 1/2/2024 at 4:20 AM, jayyy said: That’s over a foot in Ellicott city. Not a bad run AT ALL . Expand Agreed!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 On 1/2/2024 at 12:09 PM, CAPE said: lol at the whole jinx thing on a science based board. It is time for a thread. The threat is legit, and it keeps this thread from getting too cluttered. Expand Considering we aren’t even able to name anthropogenic climate change when discussing climo is it really a surprise we believe in thread jinxes? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 On 1/2/2024 at 1:01 PM, kristia said: My first thought was please no one start a thread Expand Yup thats usually the way to jinx it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 We gotta get through the cutter on the 9th, then see how far west and south the cold dumps around the 11th, but after that we should be in full tracking between 13-20th and beyond . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Yeah, GEFS has caved to the EPS/GEPS look as @psuhoffman predicted. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 On 1/2/2024 at 2:39 PM, Heisy said: We gotta get through the cutter on the 9th, then see how far west and south the cold dumps around the 11th, but after that we should be in full tracking between 13-20th and beyond . Expand Weren't we in full tracking mode for this weekend until this mornings Euro? Question is if the storm for the 4th is already changing and that is affecting the storm on the 7th then why won't those constant changes mess with the long range? Same ensembles had Saturday looking pretty sweet just yesterday....just sayin man 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Setup for front end possibilities after this weekend looks much better on both the gfs and cmc ops. Better spacing and heights in the wake of the weekend system 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 On 1/2/2024 at 4:10 PM, Bob Chill said: Setup for front end possibilities after this weekend looks much better on both the gfs and cmc ops. Better spacing and heights in the wake of the weekend system Expand It would help a lot to have some snow on the ground heading into that event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Pretty similar looks between GFS and CMC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 On 1/2/2024 at 4:36 PM, Heisy said: Pretty similar looks between GFS and CMC . Expand Another cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 On 1/2/2024 at 4:36 PM, Allsnow said: Another cutter? Yea that pattern looks familiar eh? Idk why we can never get a PNA ridge. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 On 1/2/2024 at 4:37 PM, Heisy said: Yea that pattern looks familiar eh? Idk why we can never get a PNA ridge. . Expand Hopefully we get improvements by Mid month. I hate to waste another blocking episode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 It's whatever. Looks like two cutters set the table and then it is game on for the second half of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 On 1/2/2024 at 4:37 PM, Heisy said: Yea that pattern looks familiar eh? Idk why we can never get a PNA ridge. . Expand It's just because we're in a nina relax...oh wait 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 On 1/2/2024 at 4:49 PM, psuhoffman said: It's just because we're in a nina relax...oh wait While this isn’t bad you can see more pronounced SE ridge vs older runs. See what GEFS and eps have to say . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 On 1/2/2024 at 5:27 PM, Heisy said: While this isn’t bad you can see more pronounced SE ridge vs older runs. See what GEFS and eps have to say . Expand That’s good in this case! We don’t want the PV squashing everything to Florida. That weak SE ridge keeps the baroclinic zone nearby. I kinda like that look a lot… 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Omg is a +PNA trying to form???? Prob get some front Enders like others said. KU risk towards end of pattern change as usual. Pretty awesome look come mid month off the GEPS . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 On 1/2/2024 at 5:30 PM, Heisy said: Omg is a +PNA trying to form???? Prob get some front Enders like others said. KU risk towards end of pattern change as usual. Pretty awesome look come mid month off the GEPS . Expand Geps couldn’t be any different then the gefs at day 10. Big battle out west going on for mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 On 1/2/2024 at 5:41 PM, Allsnow said: eps couldn’t be any different then the gefs at day 10. Big battle out west going on for mid month Expand I thought last I read it was the EPS and GEPS versus the GEFS. Also, thought I read the GEFS was trending to the EPS in the long range. Period of interest was near and after the 20th. I for one believe we must have the Pac on our side to get snow, versus anything else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 On 1/2/2024 at 5:57 PM, frd said: I thought last I read it was the EPS and GEPS versus the GEFS. Also, thought I read the GEFS was trending to the EPS in the long range. Period of interest was near and after the 20th. I for one believe we must have the Pac on our side to get snow, versus anything else. Expand Agree with your last sentence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 It's been since March 2018 that we had -NAO-based trough/cold in the east. Every other time it has happened with a -PNA or +EPO and we have gone warmer.. I don't really see this trend stopping, the correlation is close to 0.40 since 2019. My roll forwards did show the Pacific changing around 1-19.. The GEFS starts doing it 1-18. But the -NAO happens on the model 1-8/17 with it looks like a slight SE ridge. This is something that I think is going to stick, (we are in the heart of this cycle). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 On 1/2/2024 at 5:57 PM, frd said: I thought last I read it was the EPS and GEPS versus the GEFS. Also, thought I read the GEFS was trending to the EPS in the long range. Period of interest was near and after the 20th. I for one believe we must have the Pac on our side to get snow, versus anything else. Expand Geps and eps continue to look great. Gefs still not there yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 On 1/2/2024 at 7:40 PM, Allsnow said: Geps and eps continue to look great. Gefs still not there yet Expand EPS is mint. 3 sigma west based -NAO 6 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 On 1/2/2024 at 7:42 PM, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is mint. 3 sigma west based -NAOIf that pattern comes to fruition and we don’t get snow between 15-end of month then I give up lol. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 On 1/2/2024 at 7:53 PM, Heisy said: If that pattern comes to fruition and we don’t get snow between 15-end of month then I give up lol. Expand I'd be curious to see if a 3 sigma -NAO can overpower a 1 sigma -PNA right now to be honest. The -PNA may verify greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 On 1/2/2024 at 7:53 PM, Heisy said: If that pattern comes to fruition and we don’t get snow between 15-end of month then I give up lol. . Expand I feel so confident that we’ll get snow in the last 2 weeks of January that I may start a thread for it now. 2 1 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 On 1/2/2024 at 8:03 PM, WxUSAF said: I feel so confident that we’ll get snow in the last 2 weeks of January that I may start a thread for it now. Expand Whelp...on to February and March then!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 On 1/2/2024 at 7:53 PM, Heisy said: If that pattern comes to fruition and we don’t get snow between 15-end of month then I give up lol. . Expand we havent had our dry and cold period of winter yet. Get ready friend! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 On 1/2/2024 at 8:20 PM, Ji said: we havent had our dry and cold period of winter yet. Get ready friend! Expand And dont forget the January thaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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