WEATHER53 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 15 minutes ago, AU74 said: Thought I felt an earthquake! Checked USGS a couple minutes afterward, but it wasn't posted yet, then figured it nothing. Thanks for mentioning it! Somebody posted it showed up as 2.3 in NW DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Somebody posted it showed up as 2.3 in NW DC Yeah, it was centered in Rockville but felt in NW DC, MoCo, PG, and Howard: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000m135/executive https://wtop.com/local/2024/01/very-scary-windows-shook-dc-maryland-residents-experience-reported-earthquake/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Had a 5.9 mag earthquake in Northern VA on Aug 23, 2011. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeDeeHCue Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, Jebman said: Had a 5.9 mag earthquake in Northern VA on Aug 23, 2011. I was inside an IKEA in Covina CA back in 2008 when Chino Hills was rocked. You could hear it coming, the whole store rattled, and the floors started flexing. Amazing design, that building. If it had shaken apart, you’d just need an Allen key to put it back together. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 WB 6Z ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Euro saved the day thus far.. really was not overly impressed with 0z guidance at least not down this way. Hoping GFS comes in less amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 C'mon everyone. Stay up for the model runs. Things will get better. Let's reel this one in. I'd like to see at least 100 members on this topic all night long, enthusiastic for each model run. The entire Mid Atlantic Region is a snow town! We've got this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Well, I will sleep when I die!!!!! I LOVE those models with all my heart! We are gonna get shellacked by multiple snows! I am a true Believer again! Track the numerical models like The Jebman! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 27 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Euro saved the day thus far.. really was not overly impressed with 0z guidance at least not down this way. Hoping GFS comes in less amped. Watch the NS energy across eastern Canada moving into the the 50-50 region. That needs to dig more. The last few runs it has been flatter, thus less confluence and a somewhat weaker surface high that retreats a bit. The timing/interaction there is an important factor for places further south and the coastal plain imo. Increased confluence would encourage the low to track a bit further south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 HP starting to show in a much better position at 96 on 6z so that’s a good trend to start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 WB 6Z GFS 7am Sat. 540 tick south of 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4pm WB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Nice run....WB 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 WB 6Z GFS totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 WB GFS Temp profile 7pm Sat. Near freezing NW. WB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 GFS Temp. Profile WB 1 am Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Thermals did indeed tick better on the 06z GFS. Now let's get 1 more tick better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 WB 6Z GFS for next Tuesday... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 ^IMO, it would take a complete miracle for that to be all or mostly frozen in these parts. If that happens I'm going streaking. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Fun week ahead! Miserable being back to work but there are systems to track!!! HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 See, what did I tell you? Its getting better! All hands on deck! Check out every single one of those model runs! We are gonna bring this one home! The entire Mid Atlantic is one big prolific snow town! Only FOUR MORE DAYS! We are ALL gonna get shellacked! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 WB 6Z GEFS is a tick cooler also. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6z GEFS is acceptable. Colder and continues with a more SE track than the op. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: ^IMO, it would take a complete miracle for that to be all or mostly frozen in these parts. If that happens I'm going streaking. We've seen this stuff in past morph into a weaker solution with a front end thump/dryslot. Ops often back down on strength with big cutters a week out. Get a modest wedge with snow on the ground and I can easily see it be a mixed event with decent accums (2-5"). We've had many in the past buy they aren't too memorable because of dryslot drizzledrip and slush when it shuts off. Either way it looks like a juicy storm cutting west is in the works no matter what. We'll see how it goes 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: 6z GEFS is acceptable. Colder and continues with a more SE track than the op. Not having the mids get lambasted with a primary to our west driving to or north of our latitude is a huge relief. Even the improved airmass on guidance can't offset that. Need deep cold. Seems like now we are just watching wobbles with a favorable but a bit too close track to our SE. Not a bad place to be right now. I know what you're rooting for and I'm good with that because if you get hit flush, my property in VA will as well. I'd prefer to be down there for a good storm but opposite direction usually lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: lol. We are not locking anything in. But I will say I’ve observed in the last few years since the major upgrades to the gfs and euro, there is a pattern where they start to narrow in on the general synoptic solution around 140-160 hours out. After that the changes are more subtle. We’re marginal so subtle could be big for our ground truth but once inside day 6 usually it’s not adjustments of 500 miles like it used to be. They even picked up on that crazy anafront wave from 5-6 days out! They still have limitations but since the last upgrade they seem to start identifying the basic idea a couple days earlier than before. I know we haven’t had many chances to test this locally but I’ve tracked storms for my various ski interests over the last few years. Yeah and we have been burnt really bad on 96 hour leads where all the sudden the entire storm shifts 100 miles on all the guidance all at once. Heartbreak city. This is why I just refuse to go all in any more on anything even with a winter storm warning in effect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Yeah and we have been burnt really bad on 96 hour leads where all the sudden the entire storm shifts 100 miles on all the guidance all at once. Heartbreak city. This is why I just refuse to go all in any more on anything even with a winter storm warning in effect. Generally speaking, that usually only happens with progressive flow and northern stream systems. Slower moving southern stream systems with any kind of block are modeled pretty well by 96-120 hrs. Doesn't mean a 20 mile shift can't destroy hopes and dreams tho lol 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not having the mids get lambasted with a primary to our west driving to or north of our latitude is a huge relief. 6z Gefs has pretty much dropped the trouble to our west. Only 1 member driving a low into Ohio. The rest are money. This is a beautiful panel really. Could be the op wagging the ens but either way, track is locking in for now. If 12z and 0z tonight don't wiggle much then it's pretty safe to assume there will be few if any big shifts going forward with storm track. Significant ground truth shifts will occur every 6 hours tho hahahaha lol. Imma just hug the snowiest from here on out. Never fails... to punch my dreams right in the face 11 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Looks like GFS really cut back on precip after the overnight monster run. Might have to do with the shift to a slightly colder/less amped solution. Interesting to see how the storm has sped up so much in time. I feel like most of the time, our storms usually move back a bit in time, not up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Looks like GFS really cut back on precip after the overnight monster run. Might have to do with the shift to a slightly colder/less amped solution. Interesting to see how the storm has sped up so much in time. I feel like most of the time, our storms usually move back a bit in time, not up. Which is honestly fine. I’d rather have 6 inches of straight snow rather than 7.5 of slop and ice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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