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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming


stormtracker
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It's amazing out here obviously. But that is too close for comfort even here. Icon east, gfs west. Here comes a few days of model mayhem. 

Has there been a model run minus the 12z Canadian where you haven’t been forecast 1’ or more of snow?

Maybe I’m naive, but I’d be willing to wager a good sum that I-81 gets a 6”+ snowstorm at this juncture. Imagine the stress you’d be feeling in the lowlands
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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Has there been a model run minus the 12z Canadian where you haven’t been forecast a 1’ or more of snow?

Maybe I’m naive, but I’d be willing to wager a good sum that I-81 gets a 6”+ snowstorm at this juncture. Imagine the stress you’d be feeling in the lowlands

Icon just did it.

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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Has there been a model run minus the 12z Canadian where you haven’t been forecast a 1’ or more of snow?

Maybe I’m naive, but I’d be willing to wager a good sum that I-81 gets a 6”+ snowstorm at this juncture. Imagine the stress you’d be feeling in the lowlands

Oh I know the lowlands stress. That's why I moved :)

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Just now, AtlanticWx said:

i think the panic comes from the tight gradient and the fact that we're still so far out

I mean the panic over one run. Sure if we get 6 straight runs like this i get it. Either way for my neck of the woods i would take this in a heartbeat. 

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9 minutes ago, umdterps29 said:

Question on these maps… is there a real mixing risk out at Deep Creek or is that just some weird output with these types of maps?

Most likely a Wx Bell output issue.  850s are below 0 at Deep Creek throughout the storm.  If the primary tracks into the OH Valley and ruins the mid levels, Deep Creek could mix.  

I’ve seen in these setups, unless the primary tracks well into the oh valley or the coastal is tracking over central VA, Deep Creek will stay snow.  Deep Creek will stay snow in these setups while Snowshoe and Canaan may flip to sleet or rain given their higher elevation, depending on the setup.

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