nj2va Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 It's amazing out here obviously. But that is too close for comfort even here. Icon east, gfs west. Here comes a few days of model mayhem. Has there been a model run minus the 12z Canadian where you haven’t been forecast 1’ or more of snow?Maybe I’m naive, but I’d be willing to wager a good sum that I-81 gets a 6”+ snowstorm at this juncture. Imagine the stress you’d be feeling in the lowlands 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Speaking of 12z CMC, 00z sticks to that script. FRZA for favored zones. Rain for the rest. Definitely one of the worst case scenarios 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NVAwx Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 We needed that reality check. Yall were getting too comfortable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Has there been a model run minus the 12z Canadian where you haven’t been forecast a 1’ or more of snow? Maybe I’m naive, but I’d be willing to wager a good sum that I-81 gets a 6”+ snowstorm at this juncture. Imagine the stress you’d be feeling in the lowlands Icon just did it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 This isnt even that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Really amped this run. WB OZ GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 4pm Sat Question on these maps… is there a real mixing risk out at Deep Creek or is that just some weird output with these types of maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Still not too bad!! But i am hoio I nh the Gfs ensembles (GEFS) Is a lil south and east of the control run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 1 hour ago, Ji said: If we didnt have this storm....where is the next threat coming from? Nothing really stood out looking at the long range? Maybe the 12th/13th? But we do have it 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Has there been a model run minus the 12z Canadian where you haven’t been forecast a 1’ or more of snow? Maybe I’m naive, but I’d be willing to wager a good sum that I-81 gets a 6”+ snowstorm at this juncture. Imagine the stress you’d be feeling in the lowlands Oh I know the lowlands stress. That's why I moved 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: Pass. Hi I’m the new JI. Lol! New Ji come out to DTC on Saturday and I’ll buy you a beer! (I know… banter) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Icon just did it.Fine… 8”+ then 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Although the SE Canada high retreated NE a bit, allowing the warm nose a bit north, note the second H north of MN. That’s new - wasn’t there before. Could be a new trend with better backside snows. Or it could be a blip? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Just now, DarkSharkWX said: This isnt even that bad Speak for yourself. Tho I fully anticipate having a heavy rain storm at some point. Hoping to sneak 2” of snow, it would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Just now, DarkSharkWX said: This isnt even that bad Nope not bad at all!! This would still be the biggest snowstorm in central Maryland in last 3 or 4 years lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 2 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: This isnt even that bad I would sign on this in a heartbeat. Not sure what all the panic is about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Just now, ravensrule said: I would sign on this in a heartbeat. Not sure what all the panic is about. i think the panic comes from the tight gradient and the fact that we're still so far out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Although the SE Canada high retreated NE a bit, allowing the warm nose a bit north, note the second H north of MN. That’s new - wasn’t there before. Could be a new trend with better backside snows. Or it could be a blip? WVA gettin boned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I might travel for this one. I'm gonna wait until Friday probably to decide. Whitetail might be in store for Sunday if it’s any warmer than this… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Nope not bad at all!! This would still be the biggest snowstorm in central Maryland in last 3 or 4 years lolThat’s over a foot in Ellicott city. Not a bad run AT ALL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Well crap! CMC looks north as well. Well, let's hope it gets better tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Just now, AtlanticWx said: i think the panic comes from the tight gradient and the fact that we're still so far out I mean the panic over one run. Sure if we get 6 straight runs like this i get it. Either way for my neck of the woods i would take this in a heartbeat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Wouldn’t trust the cmc with a 10 foot pole right now. Looks like it’s taking a step towards euro/gfs progression. Give it another day or so . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Just now, midatlanticweather said: Well crap! CMC looks north as well. Well, let's hope it gets better tomorrow. Crap model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Confluence a bit weaker, which is why the r/s line moved north. But there are also timing differences, and more spacing between the western vort 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Just now, midatlanticweather said: Well crap! CMC looks north as well. Well, let's hope it gets better tomorrow. no cmc shifted S, still a way to go but better than last run 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 9 minutes ago, umdterps29 said: Question on these maps… is there a real mixing risk out at Deep Creek or is that just some weird output with these types of maps? Most likely a Wx Bell output issue. 850s are below 0 at Deep Creek throughout the storm. If the primary tracks into the OH Valley and ruins the mid levels, Deep Creek could mix. I’ve seen in these setups, unless the primary tracks well into the oh valley or the coastal is tracking over central VA, Deep Creek will stay snow. Deep Creek will stay snow in these setups while Snowshoe and Canaan may flip to sleet or rain given their higher elevation, depending on the setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 4 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I would sign on this in a heartbeat. Not sure what all the panic is about. I would too, but I’m not sure I believe this map if it were to play out with those temp profiles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2024 Share Posted January 2, 2024 Just now, Fozz said: I would too, but I’m not sure I believe this map if it were to play out with those temp profiles. I hear you. Regardless it’s one run. I’m not sweating anything. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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