DarkSharkWX Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 GEFS is insane 12 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: Jan 2016 was first forecast to be DC-Baltimore special with only glancing blow to NYC. I was living up in northeast Jersey at the time and was stunned we got 28 inches. every storm moves north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 op GFS and GEFS very close in SLP placement at h132 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 every storm moves northExcept when we need it too 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Wow at ensembles! Wish this was set to start Wednesday instead of Saturday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Terpeast said: op GFS and GEFS very close in SLP placement at h132 Makes me think that storms will try to follow that baroclinic zone off the VA/NC coast NE-ward (if you've been paying attention to SST and t2m maps in that area, you know what I'm talking about) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 GEFS looks a smidge warmer than 12Z, but precip field has a really nice characteristic shape. For some reason my media size limit is like 8 pixels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Terpeast said: Makes me think that storms will try to follow that baroclinic zone off the VA/NC coast NE-ward (if you've been paying attention to SST and t2m maps in that area, you know what I'm talking about) yeah ive been seeing that signature on all the ensembles when looking at precip anomaly maps thats prob gonna help us here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 GEFS is breaking out deeper blues for I-95 back through I-81. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: op GFS and GEFS very close in SLP placement at h132 GEFS is pretty torchy at the surface. Tho I'm sure some members have us at sunny and 50 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Except when we need it too Warn your patreoner's about temps of 31-32 and maybe mixing even in Loudoun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Can't wait for Saturday afternoon's 43/34 as I await precip onset. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Can anyone post Kuchera from GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 GEFS is pretty torchy at the surface. Tho I'm sure some members have us at sunny and 50It’s cause there’s prob a decent amount that are too far NW. majority still solid though. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: Warn your patreoner's about temps of 31-32 and maybe mixing even in Loudoun. I would expect to mix out here even. Not the coldest airmass in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 12 minutes ago, umdterps29 said: Can anyone post Kuchera from GFS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, clskinsfan said: I would expect to mix out here even. Not the coldest airmass in reality. I hope the hell not. You should be fine unless this thing passes over Fredericksburg 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: I hope the hell not. You should be fine unless this thing passes over Fredericksburg I see two competing influences where this storm wants to come north, but at the same time the cold high gets even stronger while bearing down on us. Will be interesting to see how these trend until we're 60-72 hours from game time. By then, the models should be pretty locked in, give or take 15-20 miles 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I would expect to mix out here even. Not the coldest airmass in reality. There is no indication you mix right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I already hate this storm. Liking snow and living in DC is such a destructive act of masochism. 2 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 7 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Thanks! I’m torn between heading out to Deep Creek for the weekend or hanging home and seeing what happens here. Feels like Deep Creek is the more sensible bet if i don’t want to risk disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I see two competing influences where this storm wants to come north, but at the same time the cold high gets even stronger while bearing down on us. Will be interesting to see how these trend until we're 60-72 hours from game time. By then, the models should be pretty locked in, give or take 15-20 miles I know you know this, but the 20 mile wide gradient between 2" and 10" makes these storms rough even at close range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Any gefs maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: I know you know this, but the 20 mile wide gradient between 2" and 10" makes these storms rough even at close range. I'm 80-90% confident that there will be a steep gradient in snowfall within a 20 mile range, or even less. I just hope most of us will be on the left side of it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 50 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Cold high location exactly the same the last 3 runs, remarkable consistency The Big Storms Lock in Early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Taken verbatim, the GFS would give most of us a very scenic plastering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Any gefs maps? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 WOOF. El Niño for the win. Hate that this storm is still 5+ days out though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 This could be a season saving storm. Without out we are looking at 2 cutters and no snow by January 15z.This storm is critical. We could be at above average snow on Monday for the season It’s like your fantasy rb scoring a td in the first quarter if it happens 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Ji said: This could be a season saving storm. Without out we are looking at 2 cutters and no snow by January 15z. This storm is critical. We could be at above average snow on Monday for the season It’s like your fantasy rb scoring a td in the first quarter if it happens We won’t get 2 cutters. Wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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