psuhoffman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 hours ago, Terpeast said: We need it. D5-6 is when models take a hop SE, then trend north as lead times continue to shorten. So that’s one thing we got to watch out for. But we do have things going against the last minute north trend - stronger confluence and better cold air. And the 1/4 lead wave never trended north, it just continued to weaken and trend south from D7 to D3, and I don’t see it changing much from here on out. I've noted this over the last several years, since the major model upgrades a few years back...guidance seems to make BIG changes somewhere in the 140-180 hour range, that seems to be where they start to pick up on the general synoptic idea. After that we obviously see changes but not like 500 mile shifts anymore usually. The final 72 hours we still tend to see a slow bleed north. Nothing close to back in the 90s and 2000s when storms would trend hundreds of miles north the final 3 days or anything, but a little bleeding. We want to get a little wiggle room now for that IMO. Frankly I am amazed by the progress. We are analyzing things at 140 hours that when I first started this you would be crazy to even look at until inside 72 hours. 2 hours ago, baltosquid said: FWIW the ICON is cooking very well for the 7th. But interesting to see it jump to being so much more amped relative to 00z - was previously very suppressed. I've found, much like the NAM, that my forecasts are more accurate if I just ignore the ICON. I am not saying its wrong, is pretty much in line with other guidance inside the goal posts right now, just saying it bounces all over the place and will lead you off on a tangent just as often as the rigght direction. 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: Oh baby! "Oh baby, I wanna get wit ya, and take ya picture..." 1 hour ago, Ji said: 1-10 worries about supression with the current trends? What number we at? Both rain and suppressed are still within the goalposts here. But if you told me we failed and asked how I would still say 60% rain 40% suppressed. We're still in the range where the ensembles have more weight and they look great. But also, we are at the range where things are settling in and I've observed, as others have pointed out also, we do sometimes get a wobble south or colder around now but 75% of the time things still bleed north the last 2-3 days. I like having a little wiggle room here. In my experience the time to worry, judging on how guidance has handled these types of systems the last 10 years, is if we start seeing runs show up that jack NC and southern VA. That's not what we want, the north correction is not hundreds of miles anymore. Even those end up trending north at the end...but not enough to save us. Remember Dec 2018...it went south and was showing a NC/VA line jack...then it did trend north enough to save Fredericksburg and Charlottsville but not enough for us. Having us on the northern fringes at day 5 is ok. I will worry if it starts to show a true miss to our south across all guidance. 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: I agree with Webb and @psuhoffman here that this thing is likely to inch northward in the last 72-96 hours. It really hurts to be on the same team with Webb on anything but I have to agree on this. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I like the look at H117. Low down near Tallahassee with a 1029 H over Canada. Classic confluence look at h5 over NE. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I like the look at H117. Low down near Tallahassee with a 1029 H over Canada. Classic confluence look at h5 over NE.Euro?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 12z Euro, lp in Knoxville at 123. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Pretty classic RA/SN gradient but verbatim DC is fine through 135Surface temps not technically cooperating but upper levels are 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Euro is even faster than the GFS. Has precip breaking out by 18Z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 that works 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Temps and Dew points heading into the event are really solid on the Euro. Mid 20's dews for everyone. Surface below freezing down to RIC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Temps warmer compared to 0z. DC barely holding on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 That primary hangs on a bit too long over the OH valley. 95 changes over but just NW of the cities look to stay all snow. Also this thing now starts Saturday afternoon on the Euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Some OH valley low still in this run vs almost 100% coastal low at 0z. Hence warmer for coastal plain areas. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 fall line gradient storm. W of the fall line will be fine. Those E of the fall line know the drill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 not done yet! 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just need a little better press from the NE to get that to transfer quicker. Good run all things considered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Two camps right now. Either a weak miller B with temp issues for 95 and NW wins, or Miller A that can shift to have temp issues for 95 and NW wins. Basically NW wins. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, LP08 said: Just need a little better press from the NE to get that to transfer quicker. Good run all things considered. Yep, in spite of that OH valley low hanging on, shows we’re still in the game. Good run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: not done yet! Main difference there is 10:1 vs Kuchera, not the timing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Didn't see that coming. Wow! 10:1 looks better for DC than Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Main difference there is 10:1 vs Kuchera, not the timing. Ah, my bad. At this range I prefer the snowiest snow map anyway 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, H2O said: Two camps right now. Either a weak miller B with temp issues for 95 and NW wins, or Miller A that can shift to have temp issues for 95 and NW wins. Basically NW wins. What’s nice to see is that the guidance is getting more uniform with a respectable high and confluence to our north. Makes the airmass much less marginal heading into the weekend. Euro has lows in the low 20s Friday morning with dews in the low-mid 10s. Mid 20s Saturday morning. @clskinsfan mentioned this above. Differences in the solutions now seem more on how the 2 shortwaves interact. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Ah, my bad. At this range I prefer the snowiest snow map anyway We know how to roll. Hug the snowiest clown map all day every day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, WxUSAF said: What’s nice to see is that the guidance is getting more uniform with a respectable high and confluence to our north. Makes the airmass much less marginal heading into the weekend. Euro has lows in the low 20s Friday morning with dews in the low-mid 10s. Mid 20s Saturday morning. @clskinsfan mentioned this above. Differences in the solutions now seem more on how the 2 shortwaves interact. Game on, pushing chips in 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Synoptically, that was a solid run overall. ECMWF is too warm with the thermals in the boundary layer. In fact, it has heavy snow within a deformation band over FDK into central PA with temps at 34F. That's not happening in this setup. Takes the thermals with a grain of salt. UL progression was still good and is well within the envelope of potential outcomes. Fall line and west are still favored and those east and south need to temper expectations. This is a classic storm with those caveats. The CAD is there, but this isn't an arctic driller. 22 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: What’s nice to see is that the guidance is getting more uniform with a respectable high and confluence to our north. Makes the airmass much less marginal heading into the weekend. Euro has lows in the low 20s Friday morning with dews in the low-mid 10s. Mid 20s Saturday morning. @clskinsfan mentioned this above. Differences in the solutions now seem more on how the 2 shortwaves interact. For the lowlands you need a bit more help tho. Like cold temps Sat morning is great, low dews as well. But you need cloud cover to come in quick and cap warming. Too much sun will warm and that cold bleed down over the fall line then takes forever. Been there before. Not gonna fret over thermals 4 days out just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 14 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Temps warmer compared to 0z. DC barely holding on. If low in that position then rain/snow line further south. it’s showing a tendency toward earlier start which always is better for DC. Clear overnight with increasing clouds by dawn thus keeping temps down and onset in afternoon with a 3-5 degree temp drop after onset what with dews ranging 25-28. Finally snow fun comes back to DC!! 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: not done yet! Lol, totals went down on a total snowfall map at a later time stamp. Shows how useful they are Edit: different maps, same dumbass poster. Carry on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Pretty classic situation next weekend. Said it yesterday but took some heat for voicing what I was feeling after seeing the signal across all 3 ens means families. Will say it again....this has all the makings of a big hit to the left of the fall line, I95 the usual mix zone. Still think ops will bounce around quite a bit the next several days. But folks...we are tracking!!! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Pretty classic situation next weekend. Said it yesterday but took some heat for voicing what I was feeling after seeing the signal across all 3 ens means families. Will say it again....this has all the makings of a big hit to the left of the fall line, I95 the usual mix zone. Still think ops will bounce around quite a bit the next several days. But folks...we are tracking!!! Looks like a ton heavy precip events in next couple months. If we go down like ‘73 or ‘98 so be it but I think we will hit some big snow events too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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