MillvilleWx Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 On 1/1/2024 at 5:04 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Expand I can't see the image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 On 1/1/2024 at 5:06 PM, MillvilleWx said: I can't see the image Expand Just visualized what you said - don't drop below 0c 850. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 Here is early am Sunday. Surface temps are marginal. 850s look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 On 1/1/2024 at 5:06 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Spelling mistake on my part. I corrected the post. Expand Ahhh. Gotcha! Happens to the best of us. Could be worse. Imagine seeing it while submitting your discussion at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 On 1/1/2024 at 5:00 PM, Terpeast said: Note the trend of the cold HP strength up top on the gefs Expand That's really good to see. Gives us some wiggle room for the last minute bleed north that always seems to happen. Who knows if it happens this time but history says it ussually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 On 1/1/2024 at 5:06 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Spelling mistake on my part. I corrected the post. Expand I was looking at the surface anyways. Just ignore my stupidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 On 1/1/2024 at 5:07 PM, Weather Will said: Here is early am Sunday. Surface temps are marginal. 850s look good. Expand Thermal profile modeling will be worked out later as we get closer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 UKMET has a 990 due east of ORF but temps are iffy east of the Blue Ridge. I haven’t tracked UKMET much to know how it does on thermals vs 500. Looks like a true Miller A track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 On 1/1/2024 at 5:06 PM, MillvilleWx said: I can't see the image Expand The 0 line advances as far north as vicinity Ashland VA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 WB 12Z GEFS probs 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 Uk is over an inch QPF for the event for everyone. Close to 1.5 for the cities. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 CMC is simply amped. It wasn't the elephant OH transfer solution. If the euro shows the same heights (or better) at hrs 60-72 like the gfs/icon did, we can start not worrying about the most heartbreaking type of outcome. Didn't take much at all to knock that solution down today. Very subtle shift. Same with temps. I think too many people jumped the gun on a few wobbles warm past few days. I didn't like seeing it either but long range tracking shouldn't laser in so quickly. Being reactionary to ops beyond d4 can greatly reduce personal verification scores. 18 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 On 1/1/2024 at 5:13 PM, clskinsfan said: Uk is over an inch QPF for the event for everyone. Close to 1.5 for the cities. Expand Must be a temp problem because it's naso good until you get out into the burbs. 6-8"+ your way. realize nj2 said this earlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 On 1/1/2024 at 4:16 PM, clskinsfan said: How much for Philly? Expand 23 years later and you guys still won't let me live that one down. 3 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 if I had to choose, I would probably be more worried about a CMC type solution more than anything, but a lot of options are still on the table. not worth really freaking out over at this range 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 On 1/1/2024 at 5:29 PM, brooklynwx99 said: if I had to choose, I would probably be more worried about a CMC type solution more than anything, but a lot of options are still on the table. not worth really freaking out over at this range Expand If Euro shows more of a GFS/ICON type look at 12z that ease some fears at all or you’re still worried about trends as we lead up to game time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 On 1/1/2024 at 4:33 PM, BristowWx said: That’s so classic of a look…right out of the Kocin book… Expand Yessir!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 On 1/1/2024 at 5:28 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: 23 years later and you guys still won't let me live that one down. Expand It is with affection, though, unlike that how-much-for-Carbondale guy... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 On 1/1/2024 at 4:32 PM, RDM said: Stepped away for a bit and came back to 120+ posts in less than an hour. Knew something was up, but the ICON looks drool-worthy. But the totals on the clown map showing more for DC than NW burbs is questionable. Great to have you back with us Bob Chill. Your like E.F. Hutton for those of us old enough to remember those commercials. Hope the outcome going forward bodes well for you sticking around. Expand When E F Hutton talks... everyone listens!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 How much for Dale City lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 I know. 1 or 2 inch thump then mix issues, maybe full on liquid later. I take. (As modeled so far, I realize we are still about 6-7 days out.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 On 1/1/2024 at 5:29 PM, brooklynwx99 said: if I had to choose, I would probably be more worried about a CMC type solution more than anything, but a lot of options are still on the table. not worth really freaking out over at this range Expand Lucky for us in the mid-Atlantic, our freakouts automatically regenerate so we can’t run out 1 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 On 1/1/2024 at 5:50 PM, WxUSAF said: Lucky for us in the mid-Atlantic, our freakouts automatically regenerate so we can’t run out Expand People freak out even when the models show a perfect solution so… lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 On 1/1/2024 at 5:55 PM, TSSN+ said: People freak out even when the models show a perfect solution so… lol Expand Yeah some people were freaking out in the lead up to Feb 2010. It’s always going to happen somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 Cmon folks. Euro play by play please. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 On 1/1/2024 at 6:07 PM, DCAlexandria said: Cmon folks. Euro play by play please. . Expand Everyone waiting intently for the arrival of king euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 On 1/1/2024 at 5:19 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Must be a temp problem because it's naso good until you get out into the burbs. 6-8"+ your way. realize nj2 said this earlier Expand Yeah it's a torch at the 850 and surface level, esp east of the Blue Ridge. Probably more amped than the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 On 1/1/2024 at 1:39 PM, Terpeast said: We need it. D5-6 is when models take a hop SE, then trend north as lead times continue to shorten. So that’s one thing we got to watch out for. But we do have things going against the last minute north trend - stronger confluence and better cold air. And the 1/4 lead wave never trended north, it just continued to weaken and trend south from D7 to D3, and I don’t see it changing much from here on out. Expand I've noted this over the last several years, since the major model upgrades a few years back...guidance seems to make BIG changes somewhere in the 140-180 hour range, that seems to be where they start to pick up on the general synoptic idea. After that we obviously see changes but not like 500 mile shifts anymore usually. The final 72 hours we still tend to see a slow bleed north. Nothing close to back in the 90s and 2000s when storms would trend hundreds of miles north the final 3 days or anything, but a little bleeding. We want to get a little wiggle room now for that IMO. Frankly I am amazed by the progress. We are analyzing things at 140 hours that when I first started this you would be crazy to even look at until inside 72 hours. On 1/1/2024 at 3:47 PM, baltosquid said: FWIW the ICON is cooking very well for the 7th. But interesting to see it jump to being so much more amped relative to 00z - was previously very suppressed. Expand I've found, much like the NAM, that my forecasts are more accurate if I just ignore the ICON. I am not saying its wrong, is pretty much in line with other guidance inside the goal posts right now, just saying it bounces all over the place and will lead you off on a tangent just as often as the rigght direction. On 1/1/2024 at 4:08 PM, clskinsfan said: Oh baby! Expand "Oh baby, I wanna get wit ya, and take ya picture..." On 1/1/2024 at 4:09 PM, Ji said: 1-10 worries about supression with the current trends? What number we at? Expand Both rain and suppressed are still within the goalposts here. But if you told me we failed and asked how I would still say 60% rain 40% suppressed. We're still in the range where the ensembles have more weight and they look great. But also, we are at the range where things are settling in and I've observed, as others have pointed out also, we do sometimes get a wobble south or colder around now but 75% of the time things still bleed north the last 2-3 days. I like having a little wiggle room here. In my experience the time to worry, judging on how guidance has handled these types of systems the last 10 years, is if we start seeing runs show up that jack NC and southern VA. That's not what we want, the north correction is not hundreds of miles anymore. Even those end up trending north at the end...but not enough to save us. Remember Dec 2018...it went south and was showing a NC/VA line jack...then it did trend north enough to save Fredericksburg and Charlottsville but not enough for us. Having us on the northern fringes at day 5 is ok. I will worry if it starts to show a true miss to our south across all guidance. On 1/1/2024 at 4:12 PM, WxUSAF said: I agree with Webb and @psuhoffman here that this thing is likely to inch northward in the last 72-96 hours. Expand It really hurts to be on the same team with Webb on anything but I have to agree on this. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 I like the look at H117. Low down near Tallahassee with a 1029 H over Canada. Classic confluence look at h5 over NE. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 1, 2024 Share Posted January 1, 2024 On 1/1/2024 at 6:24 PM, nj2va said: I like the look at H117. Low down near Tallahassee with a 1029 H over Canada. Classic confluence look at h5 over NE.Euro?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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