nj2va Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 “PSU fringed” = get ready for a big snowstorm 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, osfan24 said: Was not saying this is the final solution but that is definitely suppressed. I don't even think the heavy snow bands reach 95 unless the GFS is just not correctly showing how expansive precip would be on the northwest side. I hear you, I just love seeing this solution versus the low running through Charleston WV, lol. We've got the high and low in the right place with this run... time cross fingers that it sticks to the canonical track off of the OBX/VA coast over the next two days worth of runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: How much for Philly? Short Pump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Solution Man said: Short Pump? Hard Pump. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: I was noticing that too. The energy is sort of left behind over the OH Valley and it allows the storm to not gain as much latitude. Could very well be noise in this type of setup. What I liked was the persistence of the high over the top and the energy cutting underneath. A little more phasing would've basically produced the ICON simulation. Not a terrible run and actually kind of where you would want to see it in the medium range. GEFS should be pretty I like seeing wider goalposts honestly. The more paths to some sort of event the better. Meanwhile GGEM goes the opposite direction and phases it in much earlier and hence a more inland track and just rain for the 95 corridor. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Posting an unfinished run snowmap to scare people, smh.@ji better? Psu fringed, but I’d wager he’d come in and say the surface depiction was wrong That snowfall signature definitely screams surface wrong. PSU probably likes where he’s at for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Short Pump? Screwed like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Even if it seems a bit too far south. Thats where we want it at this point cause we all know they usualy tick northwest as we get alot closer to the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Gfs may have overcorrected with the SE trend (or it may be onto something) We have a little more wiggle room with cold air and the r/s/mix line, and that’s what we can say at this point. No complaints ( except maybe the Canadian) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: I hear you, I just love seeing this solution versus the low running through Charleston WV, lol. We've got the high and low in the right place with this run... time cross fingers that it sticks to the canonical track off of the OBX/VA coast over the next two days worth of runs. Oh yeah, I am not worried about that run. It was a perfectly fine run that keeps everyone right in the game. I do agree it looks like a pretty classic Mid-Atlantic MECS to HECS storm track. Just needed to gain a bit more lattitude. One thing I'd like to see to pump up the totals more into HECS range is some WAA snow running through the region before we get into the CCB. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, WxUSAF said: I like seeing wider goalposts honestly. The more paths to some sort of event the better. Meanwhile GGEM goes the opposite direction and phases it in much earlier and hence a more inland track and just rain for the 95 corridor. Canadian is just another solution within the margin of error. It was the snowiest for a succession of runs and now it flips. I'm still in ensemble mode and will be curious to see where the means come in. A storm is 100% in the works, just a matter of how the upper pattern evolves with translation at the surface. Finer details will not be hashed for several more days yet. Everyone should just take the deterministic as a viable solution within the margin. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 is there a NW trend mechanism set in a nino like the SER in a nina? the confluence could trend weaker in the short range and go N but thats not set in stone and dependable on like a NW trend in a nina 2019 had a few NW trends but it was the only nino i tracked and it didnt really couple properly so i was j wondering cause i hear a lot of people being certain of a NW trend in the short range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 DC around a foot and the usual NW burbs all the way up through NE edging out a grass coverer or nothing at all makes me skeptical on its face, ignoring specifics lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 10 minutes ago, Shad said: if your following trends, you may want this to stop pushing south and east....pretty substantial changes in last 3 model runs Considering the 12z CMC still is a little too far north west I think we’re ok if it keeps pushing south east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Oh yeah, I am not worried about that run. It was a perfectly fine run that keeps everyone right in the game. I do agree it looks like a pretty classic Mid-Atlantic MECS to HECS storm track. Just needed to gain a bit more lattitude. One thing I'd like to see to pump up the totals more into HECS range is some WAA snow running through the region before we get into the CCB. This is not a HECS setup by any means. Just isn't. Too progressive, not deep enough, etc. Could be a very nice event for someone, certainly the best in literally years, but it's not a HECS. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Makes sense the GFS shows it being a bit more south. It pushes the cold down more and storms track along the that gradient. It’s gonna move around more as models figure out the confluence, cold press, NS vort etc. Just one run to file away as a possible outcome. It’s not the final one 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 This is not a HECS setup by any means. Just isn't. Too progressive, not deep enough, etc. Could be a very nice event for someone, certainly the best in literally years, but it's not a HECS. . 3 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Very latest model plot for days 5 and 6 from WPC. Ur all gonna love this!!! 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Someone tell LWX that this is getting suppressed, apparently. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Stepped away for a bit and came back to 120+ posts in less than an hour. Knew something was up, but the ICON looks drool-worthy. But the totals on the clown map showing more for DC than NW burbs is questionable. Great to have you back with us Bob Chill. Your like E.F. Hutton for those of us old enough to remember those commercials. Hope the outcome going forward bodes well for you sticking around. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: Very latest model plot for days 5 and 6 from WPC. Ur all gonna love this!!! That’s so classic of a look…right out of the Kocin book… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 This is not a HECS setup by any means. Just isn't. Too progressive, not deep enough, etc. Could be a very nice event for someone, certainly the best in literally years, but it's not a HECS. What? I thought every Storm in a Nino was suppose to be a hecs! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Very latest model plot for days 5 and 6 from WPC. Ur all gonna love this!!! There are dozens of images like this in the KU books. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: . Have to agree with WxUSAF. This doesn’t quite have the markings of a 96/10/16 style HECS, but could still be a significant event for NW of the fall line. Max upside is around a foot for the lower elevs but with temp/ptype issues, the reality may be half that even with a favorable track. ETA: WPC seems more bullish though, so we shall see 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I keep seeing 12-18” on snow maps. Sign me up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Have to agree with WxUSAF. This doesn’t quite have the markings of a 96/10/16 style HECS, but could still be a significant event for NW of the fall line. Max upside is around a foot for the lower elevs but with temp/ptype issues, the reality may be half that even with a favorable track. Verbatim the GFS snow depth map is ugly for the cities - at least compared 10:1. Buuuutt I recall the December storm where ground temps sucked and rates + darkness overcame. If we start overnight and it's as heavy as the winning runs have been I think the max upside isn't a difficult reach. Expect 2" and some slop and most of us will probably be happy though 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Have to agree with WxUSAF. This doesn’t quite have the markings of a 96/10/16 style HECS, but could still be a significant event for NW of the fall line. Max upside is around a foot for the lower elevs but with temp/ptype issues, the reality may be half that even with a favorable track. Considering the vibe was ‘winter cancel’ 2 days ago, it’ll be interesting to watch that same crowd react if this is “just” a 3-6” event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Considering the vibe was ‘winter cancel’ 2 days ago, it’ll be interesting to watch that same crowd react if this is “just” a 3-6” event.Psu will not do a 3-6 under any circumstance in a Nino 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 This thread is unreal. GFS looks great at this juncture and you would think it took the storm away reading the posts in here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Looking through some of the soundings, I think I’d be on the snow side of the line, it just shows rain because of low resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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