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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming


stormtracker
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  On 1/1/2024 at 3:12 PM, Chris78 said:

Were almost down to 5 days nows. 

Would be nice to get s region wide event. It's been a while lol.

And the ski resorts need it so badly. Just looked around and no local resorts are open. You'd have to drive 2 - 3 hours west to find one.

Looks like whitetail and Round top opened briefly before shutting down operations. 

How's wisp? I know they’re open but is it pretty limited at this point?

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Snow shoe is doing ok, but I think they are the exception this season. 

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  On 1/1/2024 at 3:07 PM, LeesburgWx said:

Is suppression the bigger risk now? Or is it possible the models flip flop again and retreat the cold air more like 48 hours ago?

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Imo- equal chance. Storm is going to want to punch into any strength of confluence. Strength of shortwave will determine how much force and strength of confluence will determine how much resistance. Small changes in both = sizeable changes in our yards. These types of details will likely wobble back and forth for another couple days b4 we can set narrow enough goal posts to make accurate, bold, and unrealistic snowfall calls. 

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  On 1/1/2024 at 3:12 PM, Chris78 said:

Were almost down to 5 days nows. 

Would be nice to get s region wide event. It's been a while lol.

And the ski resorts need it so badly. Just looked around and no local resorts are open. You'd have to drive 2 - 3 hours west to find one.

Looks like whitetail and Round top opened briefly before shutting down operations. 

How's wisp? I know there open but is it pretty limited at this point?

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Just got back on Saturday from a few days at Wisp. I’d say about half the runs were open with the base eroding quickly after that big rainer last week. Good to see they’re snowing lightly now and should continue to do so over the next day or so…and I imagine they’ll be in pretty good shape come the end of next week.

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  On 1/1/2024 at 3:19 PM, mattie g said:

Just got back on Saturday from a few days at Wisp. I’d say about half the runs were open with the base eroding quickly after that big rainer last week. Good to see they’re snowing lightly now and should continue to do so over the next day or so…and I imagine they’ll be in pretty good shape come the end of next week.

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Yeah, agree with this.  We’re heading out to ski later this afternoon so will let you know @Chris78.  They’ll probably finish with 6”+ over these last two days, another few inches later this week with more upslope, and this weekend’s potential threat.  They could be in for the best conditions they’ve had in well over a year if this weekend pans out.

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  On 1/1/2024 at 3:25 PM, Fozz said:

I’m undecided on whether to head to Timberline.

I think this will be a great storm there, but if we get a big one in the cities then I want to be home for that and might opt for Whitetail or Liberty in the evenings.

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This is probably an NW suburbs event. Closer to I-95 is really walking the fence with this one.

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  On 1/1/2024 at 3:19 PM, mattie g said:

Just got back on Saturday from a few days at Wisp. I’d say about half the runs were open with the base eroding quickly after that big rainer last week. Good to see they’re snowing lightly now and should continue to do so over the next day or so…and I imagine they’ll be in pretty good shape come the end of next week.

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Timberline is completely open except one double black.  Base was getting a little sketchy after the rain last week but they got some new snow and started blowing again.  It was packed on Saturday but they kept the lines moving.

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  On 1/1/2024 at 3:16 PM, Bob Chill said:

Imo- equal chance. Storm is going to want to punch into any strength of confluence. Strength of shortwave will determine how much force and strength of confluence will determine how much resistance. Small changes in both = sizeable changes in our yards. These types of details will likely wobble back and forth for another couple days b4 we can set narrow enough goal posts to make accurate, bold, and unrealistic snowfall calls. 

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Was just going to reply to him pretty much same thing. We are getting near the windshield wiper part where we wobble back and forth but slowly start tightening the goalposts . Feeling pretty good about this one tbh....period has been on my radar for a while and I know @CAPE's as well.

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  On 1/1/2024 at 3:42 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Icon is about as tucked as we can afford. Nothing further NW or it's going to be weenie suicide.

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It was an improved run and you could see it by d4. I don't pay much mind to the ICON but the run was sweet. All we should care about is keeping the primary as far south of OH as possible for now. ICON had that door closed early 

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