DarkSharkWX Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6" snow mean on EPS alone from this storm not done snowing 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 EPS - hr 156Cha-ching 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I'd like to be pretty far inland for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6" snow mean on EPS alone from this storm not done snowingThat almost makes the GEPS I posted 2 hours ago look tame. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I'd like to be pretty far inland for this one. Get that place in Capon Bridge again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 00z Control 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 00z ControlJesus Christ . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Jesus Christ .This storm would indeed be like Jesus Christ if it pans out. Bringing weenies the salvation we all desperately need. But let’s not get TOO hyped over clown maps at day 7. One day at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The 00Z trends on paper show a colder/more south solution for the weekend winter storm. But there's still plenty of time for more changes. Just using the GEFS for this exercise. Here is a Tomer Burg plot showing GEFS probabilities for 500mb troughs. It's a good thing to see a lack of even moderate probabilities (topping out around 20-30%) for toughing in Quebec, suggesting the higher probability for confluence there. However, note the primary shortwave trough in the Southern Plains. As was mentioned a couple times on the forum, part of this is less phasing/interaction with a northern stream shortwave. However, some of this signal could also be a signal flattening of the shortwave. Part is this is also growing dispersion in the GEFS (more ensembles showing more and more different potential amplitudes/positions of the trough drowning out the signal), but it likely includes some flatter solutions. We can get away with slightly less amplified features, particularly in an El Nino when the STJ is super charged and these southern stream disturbances are loaded with moisture. However, the need for strong upper level ascent out ahead of the trough is still important in generating both heavier snowfall rates and dynamic cooling. In short, there are still signs where this trough could weaken, but there are enough solutions to suggest this system remains quite strong. It is simply too early to tell. But we could get by with still a meaningful and impactful event even with a weaker shortwave. A good example was February 26-28, 2003. Note on the reanalysis image for Feb 27 at 06Z-- the surface low along the Gulf Coast is weak, but there is an anchored high to the north and some tighter 1000-500mb thickness packing over VA. On the archived 500mb chart centered on 06Z Feb 28, 2003, the 500mb trough didn't exactly look that impressive. Still, they produced a swath of 4-8" (CIPS image), which given the snow drought we've experienced, just getting an event like that would be a start. Dulles managed 6.4" from this event, DCA 5.3", and BWI 4.5". We'll see how trends go in the coming days. Seems like a storm is coming. But to what extent is still up for debate. 16 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 hours ago, Ji said: It's like how you drew it up Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Offshore 850 temps are much colder this run. Even with an E or ESE wind you're advecting -4 air. You won't have a lot of mixing concerns with that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6z gfs crushing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: 6z gfs crushing Damn. Lotta digital blue this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrimer77 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: 6z gfs crushing Yowzers 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 That is a lot more than a car topper in Dale City. Anyone gonna stay up for the 12z? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Good 'trends' on the 0z and now 6z guidance. Still a close call for I-95 and east, but now looking favorable for a mostly snow event just west of there. That surface HP over SE Canada is in a pretty good spot and stays locked in. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Good 'trends' on the 0z and now 6z guidance. Still a close call for I-95 and east, but now looking favorable for a mostly snow event just west of there. That surface HP is in a pretty good spot stays locked in. Any thoughts on what happens after this event as we approach mid month ? Happy New Year too ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, frd said: Any thoughts on what happens after this event as we approach mid month ? Happy New Year too ! Torch 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 9 minutes ago, frd said: Any thoughts on what happens after this event as we approach mid month ? Happy New Year too ! HNY! I think it may be a struggle to get anything to track underneath for the mid month period with a trough centered more in the west/central US, but just beyond that things look much improved, especially if the EPS is more correct, with a west based -NAO, TPV pinned underneath, and lower h5 heights shifting out into the 50-50 region. Significant improvement on the Pacific side too. 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 SIAP...This will be the first 'test' for the growing list of machine learning runs from the ECMWF suite. Verification has been pretty good, especially for some. Not going to get the specifics (i.e. ptype, snow totals, etc.), but at least we can see what the ML runs have in terms of the track into the medium range. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A Machine learning models"]} 8 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 33 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Torch Good I have to fly to Wisconsin for the week of the 15th sounds like I only need a windbreaker and perhaps shorts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 hours ago, Ji said: Maybe we needed to have more faith in the mjo 2-3 phase. I mentioned out of stupid blind luck that models should trend colder based on our phase Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Your trend suspicion > PSUs trend suspicions. Who the hell had that on their NYD 2024 bingo card? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 What gorgeous runs. 2024 trying to start with a bang! These bigger storms are always sniffed out early and lead to long tracking nights. Going to be a grueling week. To see this trend our way for once is notable and I hope it does not trend back the opposite way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 12 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Good I have to fly to Wisconsin for the week of the 15th sounds like I only need a windbreaker and perhaps shorts? Yep. And sunscreen 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Well that is a nice morning surprise.to start out the New Year. Good to see the R/S line shifting SE with each run as of late. Still need to see another couple shifts for MBY but I might have to put the snow blade.on the muck truck today just to be ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, WxMan1 said: SIAP...This will be the first 'test' for the growing list of machine learning runs from the ECMWF suite. Verification has been pretty good, especially for some. Not going to get the specifics (i.e. ptype, snow totals, etc.), but at least we can see what the ML runs have in terms of the track into the medium range. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A Machine learning models"]} I mentioned this yesterday...it looks like the 00Z ML suite also shifted significantly S/E with the low pressure compared to 12Z yesterday. Which tells me (from this extremely small sample size) most of the trend is a result of changes in the initial state, not biases in the ECMWF model physics. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6z gfs crushing Better map 6 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The EPS looks to have more certainty in the storm track for this storm (members are more clustered together): GEFS: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6z EPS Control was coming in hot 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Ramjet Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 hours ago, LeesburgWx said: Glad I moved to Western Loudoun. Geographic Snow insurance may be needed on this one. Beautiful GFS run and trend back the way we want. Going to be a long week tracking. Where are you at? I'm off of Harpers Ferry Road @ 725'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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