Eskimo Joe Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, that first system is just off CA about to enter the conus. I don’t know if sampling is a thing anymore like it was 10-15 years ago, but I think @Eskimo Joe mentioned it a page or two back I don't care what others say, until the southern jet feature is inside the North American RAOB network, wild swings occur. During the Dec 2009 snowstorm, there was a RAOB site (New Orleans?) that was launched late and they didn't get in for the 00z GFS. The result was a dry looking 00z GFS/GEFS that freaked a lot of people out. Thankfully someone here caught it in the NCEP model diagnostic disco (I think it was either you or @WxUSAF). Color us shocked when the 12z GGS/GEFS snapped back to a big storm. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 GEFS is cranking up the confluence. love to see it 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 22 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I really liked the CAD showing up. It seemed to shunt the low a bit south with the transfer. The edge of the snowline is always a concern. This was at least a tick in the better direction! "18Z gfs stopped the bleeding" 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS is cranking up the confluence. love to see it And interesting to see a more pos tilt on that wave. As long as it doesn’t close off, it might delay the turn up north and keep i-95 in the game. Usually these things trend the other way 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: And interesting to see a more pos tilt on that wave. As long as it doesn’t close off, it might delay the turn up north and keep i-95 in the game. Usually these things trend the other way Thats was what I was trying to suggest earlier. We've yet to see a real 'trend' imho. We havent even reached the windshield wiper stage yet on guidance. This is still a week away folks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: "18Z gfs stopped the bleeding" 0z This Guy will be back!!! I am telling you they know. They just gave some fodder to the GEFS for more confluence just waiting for the other flocks to leave up north. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 18z gefs def a lot better with confluence . 4 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 10 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: 0z This Guy will be back!!! I am telling you they know. They just gave some fodder to the GEFS for more confluence just waiting for the other flocks to leave up north. He looks like the goose from the Wawa logo 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I think Tomer must read Amwx lol 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 51 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: If that happens, I'm buying a Frederick Flying Cows hoodie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Using Tomer's (polarwx.com) dominant P-Type GEFS analysis... a much better 18z run. 12z 18z 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Using Tomer's (polarwx.com) dominant P-Type GEFS analysis... a much better 18z run. 12z 18z It's all confluence. Look at the placement of the high on the 18z GFS. Stronger and further west. It's much better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, WesternFringe said: Because saying it would’ve been different if it were 5 to 10° colder on every storm in the winter is a meaningless thing to say. Of course it would. That goes for anywhere and any climo. So why keep saying it? There are plenty of storms where a colder antecedent airmass wouldn’t matter because the storm is likely to cut way west of us no matter what the temps in front are based on the flow. But more importantly when we actually do get snow (I know crazy thought) often there was a good enough antecedent airmass that another 5 degrees wouldn’t help. Might even hurt! Its just been so long…but our last snowy month January 2022, not the first wave as the cold arrived that was crazy and unusual…but the rest of the snow that month it was plenty cold. Maybe too cold! Maybe that one coastal bomb doesn’t miss us if it’s not so cold. And 5 degrees colder wouldn't have helped on the MLK weekend snow to rain event either. It was plenty cold. That’s why we got decent snow with an inside track. The issue was the primary cut due to where the upper low cut off and the trough axis. The mids were doomed regardless. But if you put the airmass we’re likely to have next week in front of that storm and places west of 95 that got a 2-4” snow likely get nothing from that same setup! A colder airmass gives us more wiggle room for all these variables to be less perfect and still snow. I know it seems like we never have that lately…and we haven’t…but guess what THATS WHY ITS NOT SNOWING. This isn’t some freaking mystery. The snow gods don’t hate us. We’re not just getting unlucky. It’s not snowing because it’s just not been cold enough 90% of the time recently! 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’m going to have to go into hiding if this happens. 5 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 18z gefs def a lot better with confluence .Are you back? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I’m going to have to go into hiding if this happens. What are the stats on winters where you get to 20” before BWI has anything measurable? 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 WB 18Z GEFS, few bigger hits south of DMV now, no clear trend on GEFS for weekend storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's all confluence. Look at the placement of the high on the 18z GFS. Stronger and further west. It's much better. Latest update from WPC. I like where they have the low! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m going to have to go into hiding if this happens. I hope the entire subforum gets rekt this winter and we both have to eat crow. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: Hey all - this is a post from this particular poster you 100% need to study.* Thanks for the input, Pete. *If you all don't know, he's on the desk at WPC so...yeah. When Pete drops by to speak, listen and learn. Yeah. He’s okay I guess In complete agreement with @wxmvpete I mentioned earlier today that we haven’t sorted out many of the minor details within the mid and upper pattern leading in. There’s feedback mechanisms that will lead to the storm potential and those will take time to solve. This doesn’t even account for minute details of the thermals once we get closer, so long as there’s a storm to follow for our area. Complexities abound. Just remember, it’s still a ways before the impact time frame. Relax, follow along, and don’t live with each model run. We have a long way to go 9 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucketts Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: Willing to gamble with that gradient. Minimum 8” IMBY with the potential for much more. Already enjoying the tracking of this one. Thanks to the knowledgeable posters on here for your valuable insights. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 59 minutes ago, Heisy said: 18z gefs def a lot better with confluence . In addition, the cluster of lows on the individual members lot shifted south and west by about 75 miles: 12Z 18Z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Yeah. He’s okay I guess In complete agreement with @wxmvpete I mentioned earlier today that we haven’t sorted out many of the minor details within the mid and upper pattern leading in. There’s feedback mechanisms that will lead to the storm potential and those will take time to solve. This doesn’t even account for minute details of the thermals once we get closer, so long as there’s a storm to follow for our area. Complexities abound. Just remember, it’s still a ways before the impact time frame. Relax, follow along, and don’t live with each model run. We have a long way to go OF course everyone should be paying attention to Millville obviously (but I presume you all already know that!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Looking to next Sunday we have some NFL action possibly in the snow: 1. Dallas at Washington 2. Eagles at New York May get to see a snow game? 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 You can see the difference in confluence to the north. High holds on longer on the 18z. Difference maker this run 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Confluence can and does trend stronger as an event nears. There are not many upper air sites in eastern Canada. See the Dec 2009 event. There was forecast to be a sharp snowfall gradient in PA and as the event closed a piece of the confluence was analyzed by the RAOB network in the northeast US. It caused the snowfall forecast for central PA to bust too high. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Confluence can and does trend stronger as an event nears. There are not many upper air sites in eastern Canada. See the Dec 2009 event. There was forecast to be a sharp snowfall gradient in PA and as the event closed a piece of the confluence was analyzed by the RAOB network in the northeast US. It caused the snowfall forecast for central PA to bust too high. In the Jan 2010 event, the confluence was modeled way too strong and a storm that was supposed to give us flurries gave us 7” here 24 hours later. It works both ways. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 19 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Looking to next Sunday we have some NFL action possibly in the snow: 1. Dallas at Washington 2. Eagles at New York May get to see a snow game? Dallas will get creamed in the snow at Washington. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Oh man. Pounded a 12 pack. Watched the Redskins secure the 2nd pick in the draft and then came here and saw my back yard pinked with snows!!! Happy mofo new year ya'll!!!! 8 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Looking to next Sunday we have some NFL action possibly in the snow: 1. Dallas at Washington 2. Eagles at New York May get to see a snow game?I bet Dallas gets flexed to Sunday night Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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