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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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Kevin Reilly

Kevin Reilly

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

nice changes on the 18z EPS. stronger vort AND stronger confluence. probably remains as strong, but gets a tick colder if I had to take a guess

wave spacing in the Pacific is a bit better too

IMG_4003.thumb.gif.f465b86b99aed2551476afcae1a0a120.gif

So far so good!  Reminds me of old times when things get better as we get closer; time will tell on this thought though.

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Bob Chill
Bob Chill

I'm too lazy to dig in my old hard drive but i did quite a bit of AO data crunching for DJFM some years back. Results spoke for themselves with the AO. NAO is much more volatile but there is almost al

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

This is NOT intended to criticize that look. It’s good. This is meant to say how close it’s getting to PERFECT.  In 24 hours it’s trended 75% of the way there already. But get those 2 anomalies c

wxmvpete
wxmvpete

That MillvilleWx guy is a pretty good dude also. Knows his stuff pretty darn well. P.S.A. for all the mets that contribute on here. It takes time away from their day (and nights depending on what

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Scraff said:

Have not read any previous posts above as I just clicked in here after looking at the 18z GooFuS. Safe to assume people started getting slightly encouraged for 1/7? I went straight to the bourbon 3 mins ago when I saw it. Let’s fuckin go!! :snowing:

I see the beer index is up. This, is why things are looking up.

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Chris78

Chris78

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

I LOVED the WB 18Z GFS for next Sunday, but the GEFS mean does not currently support the HH GFS.  Until the GEFS mean or at least another major model shows the same scenario, expectations should be kept in check big time.

IMG_2488.png

IMG_2489.png

The EPS agrees with the 18z gfs.

GEFS is suppressed but most models agree there's going to be a storm in the East next weekend.

Hopefully we can nail down the details over the next 3 or 4 days.

eps_lowlocs_us_34.png

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Yesterday the runs looked horrible, today good, although the latest GEFS brings the SER back again at the end of the run.  Lot of volatility/ chaos.   Honestly, will be disappointed if we don't see some snow in the next 2 weeks but only God knows what is going to happen....will say I was really relieved to see a model show a coastal low with snow in the comma.  Been a long time...

That slight difference is noise. It’s actually another great trend. Look at the North Pacific! 
IMG_0661.thumb.gif.07cb066b99668f5466f22d6639f6d5cf.gif

That change is more important than any minor features. Get that vortex back west of AK and it will press the ridge into western Canada and kick the trough out. And with the nao block it can’t go east so it will drop southeast right to where we want it.
 

IMO the 18z gefs was much better in the one way that matters most. But I’ll let the pros weigh in. 

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Scraff

Scraff

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That slight difference is noise. It’s actually another great trend. Look at the North Pacific! 
IMG_0661.thumb.gif.54dd76b8a2ad4743e0f17f32bfb0a0e6.gif

That change is more important than any minor features. Get that vortex back west of AK and it will press the ridge into western Canada and kick the trough out. And with the nao block it can’t go east so it will drop southeast right to where we want it.
 

IMO the 18z gefs was much better in the one way that matters most. But I’ll let the pros weigh in. 

“But I’ll let the pros weigh in”. I can’t even. :lol: Ok. Back to beer…

 

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TSSN+

TSSN+

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The EPS agrees with the 18z gfs.

GEFS is suppressed but most models agree there's going to be a storm in the East next weekend.

Hopefully we can nail down the details over the next 3 or 4 days.

eps_lowlocs_us_34.png

I mean do we want everything to look perfect 7 days out anyway? 

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Terpeast

Terpeast

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That slight difference is noise. It’s actually another great trend. Look at the North Pacific! 
IMG_0661.thumb.gif.07cb066b99668f5466f22d6639f6d5cf.gif

That change is more important than any minor features. Get that vortex back west of AK and it will press the ridge into western Canada and kick the trough out. And with the nao block it can’t go east so it will drop southeast right to where we want it.
 

IMO the 18z gefs was much better in the one way that matters most. But I’ll let the pros weigh in. 

Same page. I've been harping on having a vortex at the tip of the Aleutians instead of a ridge or a GOA low for months now. This is based on my MEI research, where the MEI stays below 1.2 we have a weaker Aleutian low further west compared to a strong GOA low with MEI above 1.2. 

This past December acted as if the MEI was above 1.2 with a GOA low with pac puke, and the horrible model runs yesterday "overcorrected" that with a nina-like aleutian ridge. Now it seems to be swinging back into the middle like a pendulum. 

We shall see if that "middle" is the true middle that we want, and if that does verify.

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Terpeast

Terpeast

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The EPS agrees with the 18z gfs.

GEFS is suppressed but most models agree there's going to be a storm in the East next weekend.

Hopefully we can nail down the details over the next 3 or 4 days.

eps_lowlocs_us_34.png

How are the thermals? I don't see much of a HP up north on that panel, so that strong of a signal makes me nervous about it being to warm for us (outside of the mountains)

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Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

This past December acted as if the MEI was above 1.2 with a GOA low with pac puke

Believe it or not, The waves of +PNA/GOA low correlate downstream with our temperature the most in January, and the least in December. This is why it was amazing to have an Aleutian/GOA low in December, and right around Jan 1-2 the pattern dissolves. 

https://ibb.co/mvGCw9F

https://ibb.co/82Wq2kB

15% correlation in December. 53% correlation in January.  On Jan 1-2, the N. Pacific low dissolved and giving way to a High! :axe: Now it's the opposite effect :axe:

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Same page. I've been harping on having a vortex at the tip of the Aleutians instead of a ridge or a GOA low for months now. This is based on my MEI research, where the MEI stays below 1.2 we have a weaker Aleutian low further west compared to a strong GOA low with MEI above 1.2. 

This past December acted as if the MEI was above 1.2 with a GOA low with pac puke, and the horrible model runs yesterday "overcorrected" that with a nina-like aleutian ridge. Now it seems to be swinging back into the middle like a pendulum. 

We shall see if that "middle" is the true middle that we want, and if that does verify.

Later in the season I think we can survive if that trough ends up a little further southeast so long as the nao is negative. 

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Terpeast

Terpeast

Posted
Posted

LWX AFD on the 1/4 system - not buying into a phased scenario. Maybe this just helps set us up for the next system

  

The aforementioned shortwave over the Great Lakes will continue to
dig southeastward on Thursday. Model guidance varies quite a bit
with respect to the amplitude of this feature, and how it interacts
with a southern stream disturbance located over the southeastern US.
Solutions vary from the northern stream staying lower amplitude/to
our north and not having any interaction at all with the southern
stream disturbance, to becoming higher amplitude in nature, and
coming close to phasing with the southern stream system.
Probabilities from ensemble guidance favor a non-phasing scenario,
with a weaker northern stream disturbance progressing nearby or
overhead. This would yield some low end chances for a few rain or
snow showers on Thursday, with most of the area remaining dry. If
the systems were to phase, there could be a stronger coastal storm,
but most solutions that have that scenario playing out, have it
occurring further offshore. In either scenario, the northern
stream system will drive a cold front through the area,
potentially leading to some upslope snow Thursday night, and
colder temperatures on Friday.
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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
LWX AFD on the 1/4 system - not buying into a phased scenario. Maybe this just helps set us up for the next system
 
The aforementioned shortwave over the Great Lakes will continue todig southeastward on Thursday. Model guidance varies quite a bitwith respect to the amplitude of this feature, and how it interactswith a southern stream disturbance located over the southeastern US.Solutions vary from the northern stream staying lower amplitude/toour north and not having any interaction at all with the southernstream disturbance, to becoming higher amplitude in nature, andcoming close to phasing with the southern stream system.Probabilities from ensemble guidance favor a non-phasing scenario,with a weaker northern stream disturbance progressing nearby oroverhead. This would yield some low end chances for a few rain orsnow showers on Thursday, with most of the area remaining dry. Ifthe systems were to phase, there could be a stronger coastal storm,but most solutions that have that scenario playing out, have itoccurring further offshore. In either scenario, the northernstream system will drive a cold front through the area,potentially leading to some upslope snow Thursday night, andcolder temperatures on Friday.


We usually start with a table setting event…maybe that Monday clipper and/or Thursday slider lays some of the groundwork for that next weekend potential.
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