Heisy Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 If we get lucky the 7-8th event phases in with the TPV, creates another 50/50 and we stay on the right side of the gradient for a front ended Jan 9-11. It’s certainly possible if the block is real like in the EPs etc .The parade of pac waves actually helps us as it speeds up any wave and doesn’t allow them to get too amped. Just need support from a 50/50 and we should be good . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 38 minutes ago, Heisy said: If we get lucky the 7-8th event phases in with the TPV, creates another 50/50 and we stay on the right side of the gradient for a front ended Jan 9-11. It’s certainly possible if the block is real like in the EPs etc . It phases with what's left of the 50-50 from the Jan 4th wave, which then reinforces the positive h5 heights over GL. That's the basic mechanism of an atmospheric block, and what keeps it sustained for a period of time. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 37 minutes ago, CAPE said: This is probably somewhere between a squirrel and a moose. It’s not surprising if something pops up during a week with this mean pattern That’s pretty text book and it’s January now. No more “too early” excuses. It would be kinda a bummer if we didn’t at least get a close call from that. It is nice to see some ops saying that still works though. 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1/7ish was first thing to look good from the start and still does . Lot of convo May now drift toward that date and lessen acrimony . Mr Ji I think we have fun coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Udderly the most severe looking period I've seen on the models in decades. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 HH GEFS is further southeast with the low and a bit weaker. Decreased spacing wrt both the 50-50 low and the next wave out west are the most obvious reason on the mean. After thoroughly enjoying a 120, I'm not at all interested in poring over the members for further detail. The mean still implies frozen into the MA. On to the next run. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: HH GEFS is further southeast with the low and a bit weaker. Decreased spacing wrt both the 50-50 low and the next wave out west are the most obvious reason on the mean. After thoroughly enjoying a 120, I'm not at all interested in poring over the members for further detail. The mean still implies frozen into the MA. On to the next run. stronger 50/50 and a lot colder, though. I think the changes were good overall 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 4 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: The 5H vort panels tell the story with the differences in both the GFS and ECMWF. The difference in the handling of the northern stream is vastly different between each model, thus the outcome on guidance is different. GFS has much more interaction between the northern and southern stream where as the Euro is completely disconnected from the two leading to any surface reflection unable to gain any latitude. Will be interesting to see how it all evolves over the next week. I'll be monitoring, but I won't put too much time into it at this lead. Remember I told you: you are gonna REALLY enjoy this winter. It's starting. Better buy whatever it is that you use to stay awake. Everyone is gonna be living for the next model run. This is gonna be good! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: stronger 50/50 and a lot colder, though. I think the changes were good overall The HP showing up on recent runs changes a lot. While it isnt very robust it will help with the overall flow heading into the event. Been a while since we have had some excitement in here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 A lot of these maps are NSFW. Gotta warn a dude. Also I was supposed to pick up a horse in Central Kentucky that Sunday and was looking forward to the trip. So it’s probably gonna smack us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2023 Author Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 8 hours ago, psuhoffman said: The 7th still has potential but the wave needs more space. But it has to come from the back side not the front. RR you’re welcome. We need the 50/50 feature to offset the developing ridge over the top as the western trough develops. That backing off just leads to rain. What we need is for the western trough to trend weaker or further west. A stronger SW initially would help too. After that I think a warm up is inevitable. I always felt that way. But there are paths to avoid it becoming a disaster. We need to see signs that the pac pattern will progress and not get stuck in Nina forcing. We have the high latitude look we need now we just need the Nino look in the pac and it’s game on. Not buying the Nina pattern locking in yet. On to todays runs. I’ll be praying for back side help so we aren’t in such a tight situation between rain and snow. I would like some spacing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2023 Author Share Posted December 31, 2023 That’s my favorite IG meme. I’m going to run it into the ground. On da beach in Mexico and looking at fucking models and this thread. What a time to be alive. IMG_3053.MOV 7 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: stronger 50/50 and a lot colder, though. I think the changes were good overall Bit of a tradeoff. The stronger/closer 50-50 low is largely what's damping the wave/ keeping it more suppressed on the mean. Not really worth doing more analysis, as there are many more model cycles to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: And since we're not in a Nina it won't get the Mid Atlantic staple walk back with precip reduced by 75%. Lol true!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That’s my favorite IG meme. I’m going to run it into the ground. On da beach in Mexico and looking at fucking models and this thread. What a time to be alive. IMG_3053.MOV Ahh love the beach bro!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 23 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The HP showing up on recent runs changes a lot. While it isnt very robust it will help with the overall flow heading into the event. Been a while since we have had some excitement in here. Its a 1022 high so not very strong but still a good thing to see a week out!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: there's a lot to dissect here... just for fun lol Let's just go triple phase east of Hatteras please! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I LOVED the WB 18Z GFS for next Sunday, but the GEFS mean does not currently support the HH GFS. Until the GEFS mean or at least another major model shows the same scenario, expectations should be kept in check big time. 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 25 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That’s my favorite IG meme. I’m going to run it into the ground. On da beach in Mexico and looking at fucking models and this thread. What a time to be alive. IMG_3053.MOV it really is a disease. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Have not read any previous posts above as I just clicked in here after looking at the 18z GooFuS. Safe to assume people started getting slightly encouraged for 1/7? I went straight to the bourbon 3 mins ago when I saw it. Let’s fuckin go!! 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I LOVED the WB 18Z GFS for next Sunday, but the GEFS mean does not currently support the HH GFS. Until the GEFS mean or at least another major model shows the same scenario, expectations should be kept in check big time. Gefs says 1/4-5 is the stronger system, but suppressed. Trended colder on 1/7 though. Remember when both systems were depicted to be too warm to snow not too long ago though 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, IronTy said: Udderly the most severe looking period I've seen on the models in decades. Kinda funny, but actually true lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Yesterday the runs looked horrible, today good, although the latest GEFS brings the SER back again at the end of the run. Lot of volatility/ chaos. Honestly, will be disappointed if we don't see some snow in the next 2 weeks but only God knows what is going to happen....will say I was really relieved to see a model show a coastal low with snow in the comma. Been a long time... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 11 minutes ago, Scraff said: Have not read any previous posts above as I just clicked in here after looking at the 18z GooFuS. Safe to assume people started getting slightly encouraged for 1/7? I went straight to the bourbon 3 mins ago when I saw it. Let’s fuckin go!! Ahhh. I love me some bourbon!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Yesterday the runs looked horrible, today good, although the latest GEFS brings the SER back again at the end of the run. Lot of volatility/ chaos. Honestly, will be disappointed if we don't see some snow in the next 2 weeks but only God knows what is going to happen....will say I was really relieved to see a model show a coastal low with snow in the comma. Been a long time... Amen brother !! It had been a long time!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2023 Author Share Posted December 31, 2023 24 minutes ago, CAPE said: it really is a disease. We all need help. And that was a direct quote from my friends. I legit told them i would change my ticket and leave a day earlier when that Jan 2nd threat popped up. They were NOT happy. I did not give two fucks. 5 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Yesterday the runs looked horrible, today good, although the latest GEFS brings the SER back again at the end of the run. Lot of volatility/ chaos. Honestly, will be disappointed if we don't see some snow in the next 2 weeks but only God knows what is going to happen....will say I was really relieved to see a model show a coastal low with snow in the comma. Been a long time... Actually, the Geese know! Had at least 6 more flocks heading south here in extreme southeastern PA they are on your way enjoy! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Indeed the Geese are still flying was out for 3 hours this afternoon splitting wood... honking the whole time time! No idea how many but it was a whole lot of Geese! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 nice changes on the 18z EPS. stronger vort AND stronger confluence. probably remains as strong, but gets a tick colder if I had to take a guess wave spacing in the Pacific is a bit better too 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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