Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

@psuhoffmanthis would work right? 

 

I personally  would like to see that trough a lil more east.. but thats me   

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

@psuhoffmanthis would work right? 

 

This would work 

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Well I’m old enough to get my license (I’m too scared to drive though) but not an adult yet. Putting me at the fun spot where the past 7 years of nothing winters makes up my memory of winters! That’s why I like PSU so much because he doesn’t sugarcoat the shit winters I’ve seen my whole life, you need to see our new climo for what it is not what it was. 

I’m not anywhere close to 30 so what happened in 2002 doesnt matter much to me personally 

Damn u a youngin bro! lol hell im 56!!  I remember blizzards in the 70s lol

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A strong 50-50 low is good, but the orientation/position is important. Improvement there on the 12z run. Also improvement out west. Both relatively subtle, but gained some spacing on both ends. To me the biggest difference has to do with the shortwave itself, resulting in a deeper surface low.

You’re right and it definitely trended that way from 6z. I hadn’t even looked at that run!  But unfortunately the orientation of that vortex will wobble around on guidance a lot from this range. I’m more focused on the trend across several runs wrt the amplitude of all 3 features. 
 

Generalizing I think we want

1)stronger 50/50 (to a point there is obviously a limit but it’s a pretty marginal airmass we need that feature) 

2) stronger SW associated with our system 

3) weaker western system, more cut off, further west 

 

So far the trend the last 24 hours has actually been in that direction with all 3 variables so I’m happy. I’m not digging any deeper into the weeds than that for the lead we’re at. 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Allsnow said:

This would work 

Id still like to see that trough a touch more east.  

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

@psuhoffmanthis would work right? 

 

Hell no dude. Pay attention. That's not a real -NAO. It was enhanced by an extension of the WAR!

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This would work 

12th is too soon, temps are still above normal. (Not a torch though, 40s)

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

12th is too soon, temps are still above normal. (Not a torch though, 40s)

what

[brooklynwx99]

people are really just saying shit at this point. and using extended weekly control members to make proclamations about the pattern. wild times we live in

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This would work 

That is getting way closer to what we want, uts definitely workable as is, and it’s a slight “pinwheel” retrogression in that nao and associated drop SE of the mid lat trough from becoming REALLY good.  

I know it’s subtle but the key is getting the trough out of western Canada. Everything will cut with it anchored there.  Ideally the best look for snow in the mid Atlantic is when the positive over the top is anchored west of the negative to the south. That’s not far from that if the trough trends any further east and can get a wave break in the 50/50.  
 

That’s the trend we want to see for mid January. 

[Jebman]

You all get enough transient windows of opportunity,  hopefully maximize them as Bob Chill would say then you just might have a decent winter, even with the overall base state.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re right and it definitely trended that way from 6z. I hadn’t even looked at that run!  But unfortunately the orientation of that vortex will wobble around on guidance a lot from this range. I’m more focused on the trend across several runs wrt the amplitude of all 3 features. 
 

Generalizing I think we want

1)stronger 50/50 (to a point there is obviously a limit but it’s a pretty marginal airmass we need that feature) 

2) stronger SW associated with our system 

3) weaker western system, more cut off, further west 

 

So dst the trend the last 24 hours has actually been in that direction with all 3 variables so I’m happy. I’m not digging any deeper into the weeds than that for the lead we’re at. 

I made a post focusing on number 2, which I believe to be the biggest difference on the 12z run compared to the previous few, where the resulting surface low was weak and easily damped as it moved further NE into the upper confluence zone on the back side of the 50-50 vortex. A bit more spacing there helps, but we need a deep surface low to make this work. The 50-50 feature has been there, and has looked impressively strong. Yes it will vary somewhat from run to run.

[WeatherQ]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That is getting way closer to what we want, uts definitely workable as is, and it’s a slight “pinwheel” retrogression in that nao and associated drop SE of the mid lat trough from becoming REALLY good.  

I know it’s subtle but the key is getting the trough out of western Canada. Everything will cut with it anchored there.  Ideally the best look for snow in the mid Atlantic is when the positive over the top is anchored west of the negative to the south. That’s not far from that if the trough trends any further east and can get a wave break in the 50/50.  
 

That’s the trend we want to see for mid January. 

Does the Atlantic get more “blocky” if the Wstrn Canadian trough relaxes or does it just allow for more confluence towards the East Coast? I’m trying to picture the upper air physics in how you’ve described the WCand airmass 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Hell no dude. Pay attention. That's not a real -NAO. It was enhanced by an extension of the WAR!

It’s better but still not ideal for a snowstorm. But it’s heading towards what we want for sure. 
 

You know we are hunting different things. That look could work if you just want a chance at s SWFE. Not if we want a bigger storm.  If we were in a Nina I’d be thrilled with that look. But it’s a Nino. I’m big game hunting. Not interested in the squirrels. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s better but still not ideal for a snowstorm. But it’s heading towards what we want for sure. 
 

You know we are hunting different things. That look could work if you just want a chance at s SWFE. Not if we want a bigger storm.  If we were in a Nina I’d be thrilled with that look. But it’s a Nino. I’m big game hunting. Not interested in the squirrels. 

lol we know dude.

[MDScienceTeacher]

Here are the individual Ensemble Members for the 7th.  This is noticeably north of the previous three runs. Good Cluster of lows.  Not sure if it will be cold enough.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Here are the individual Ensemble Members for the 7th.  This is noticeably north of the previous three runs. Good Cluster of lows.  Not sure if it will be cold enough.

 

The stronger HP vs past few runs doesnt hurt. Most know that is a function of better confluence with the vigorous 50/50 placement.

[H2O]

16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

lol we know dude.

Its like being in a desert and thirsty for water.  And when offered a sip of water he declines because he wants a big gulp 96oz.  Eff that.  Need the sip.  Gimme lots of sips.  100 sips=not thirsty.

[psuhoffman]

30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

people are really just saying shit at this point. and using extended weekly control members to make proclamations about the pattern. wild times we live in

I didn’t post the control to say “this is what’s going to happen”. I clearly said I DONT believe it. But at day 15 it matched the pattern some, including you, said wasn’t so bad and would be transient. I disagreed, what I saw was actually the pattern regressing the wrong way. I was using the control to show that the pattern on yesterdays day 15 guidance wasn’t heading the right direction.  Thoth the eps and gfs ext show the same progression I used to control because it showed the details.
 

We’re on the same team. My forecast was even more bullish. I was just saying neither of us want the pattern to look like it did on yesterdays day 15. I don’t think it will. Today is perhaps the start of the move away from that cliff. That’s all.  

23 minutes ago, WeatherQ said:

Does the Atlantic get more “blocky” if the Wstrn Canadian trough relaxes or does it just allow for more confluence towards the East Coast? I’m trying to picture the upper air physics in how you’ve described the WCand airmass 

All we need to make that Atlantic work is for something to cut under the nao ridge effectively splitting it off from the ridge further south. Honestly the heights near 50:50 are more important than the nao. It’s just an nao ridge is one way to promote lower heights in that domain. But there are lots of examples of snow here from a rogue 50/50 absent a -nao. Not so much with a -nao that also has ridging in the 50/50. It’s not far from a good look but that subtle difference makes a huge difference in our chances to have a cold enough antecedent airmass and promote a suppressed storm track. 

[87storms]

You all get enough transient windows of opportunity,  hopefully maximize them as Bob Chill would say then you just might have a decent winter, even with the overall base state.

We’re getting snow in the next 2 weeks and there’s nothing we can do about it.

[H2O]

40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

people are really just saying shit at this point. and using extended weekly control members to make proclamations about the pattern. wild times we live in

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, H2O said:

Its like being in a desert and thirsty for water.  And when offered a sip of water he declines because he wants a big gulp 96oz.  Eff that.  Need the sip.  Gimme lots of sips.  100 sips=not thirsty.

But you’re acting as if more isn’t an option. I’m not choosing nothing over some 3” storm. I’m saying this year has more potential than that and we shouldn’t settle.  It’s a -QBO, non east based Nino during an ascending solar cycle. That’s the freaking holy grail!  This setup might come along once every 10-15 years!  We’re facing another Nina cycle soon!  This very well might be our only only chance at an above avg snowfall season for a while. Why should we call uncle and settle for more scraps?  I don’t give up so easily. 

[snowfan]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But you’re acting as if more isn’t an option. I’m not choosing nothing over some 3” storm. I’m saying this year has more potential than that and we shouldn’t settle.  It’s a -QBO, non east based Nino during an ascending solar cycle. That’s the freaking holy grail!  This setup might come along once every 10-15 years!  We’re facing another Nina cycle soon!  This very well might be our only only chance at an above avg snowfall season for a while. Why should we call uncle and settle for more scraps?  I don’t give up so easily. 

We know. You don’t need to keep repeating yourself. That’s what so many people keep trying to convey to you and you refuse to listen. 

[Jebman]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But you’re acting as if more isn’t an option. I’m not choosing nothing over some 3” storm. I’m saying this year has more potential than that and we shouldn’t settle.  It’s a -QBO, non east based Nino during an ascending solar cycle. That’s the freaking holy grail!  This setup might come along once every 10-15 years!  We’re facing another Nina cycle soon!  This very well might be our only only chance at an above avg snowfall season for a while. Why should we call uncle and settle for more scraps?  I don’t give up so easily. 

Hell yeah! Let's go for it! We can do this! Let's bring these snowstorms home!

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

At  least the  ICON is close to somethng

 

 

This continues to be the one I initially expressed interest in about 5 days ago

its the First snow maker sign for DC-low to south around Atlanta working northeastward with High around nipple of Hudson.  That’s just light years better than low into lakes or some type of phasing scenario  which usually skips DC. It might get shunted eastward but out to sea is closer to a better scenario for us than into the Lakes/Ohio valley 

[MillvilleWx]

Pretty quiet across the CONUS at this point, so the ERO desk is fairly tame. Decided to dig in a little for our threat on the 7th since it's probably the best game in town for the next 7-10 days. 

Latest NBM was encouraging as the trend for more precip within the mean and within the bounds of the 25th-75th percentile have increased incrementally from run-to-run. Mean QPF now within that time frame is up to 0.30-0.40 across much of the sub-forum with more located over the high country of WV and western MD. The most promising signal was the increase in PoPs for the time frame of the 7th. We've seen PoPs jump from 0-10% at best for much of the area to now into the 20-30% range which is a sizeable jump in less than 24 hrs. 

One of the reasons I've noticed is likely due to the increasing signal of a better mean height field within that Day 7-9 period where probabilities for heights between 538-546 have improved a bit underneath us which implies more amplitude in the trough being seeing within the ensembles (Grand Ensemble includes ECENS/GEFS/GEPS combo). Cluster analysis from the latest run indicates one camp now coming into play with a deeper 5H trough east of the Mississippi allowing for greater diffluent potential downstream within our neck of the woods. The strength of the mid-level short digging into the Midwest will be important as others have alluded to, and there's some support for that growing within the ensemble suite which likely caused the positive feedback in greater mean QPF forecasted within the NBM. It's a delicate setup considering we don't have a solid arctic airmass to work with, but the temperature profile this time of year doesn't need major anomalies to help us score something in a favor mid-level evolution. 

I'm lean no on anything major unless we see a greater meridional look within the longwave pattern, but a small event to get many on the board is not dead by any means and actually has some favor within a cluster of ensemble members across globals. 

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It gets shoved offshore, but makes it to us. @psuhoffman fringed to save the masses. 

I’m not sure how much shoving a 1025 high southern Hudson Bay Area can do. Too weak .

[rjvanals]

Euro misses south it looks like; has a major difference w GFS w what happens w the 1/4 storm in the Canadian maritimes 

[DarkSharkWX]

euro was a nice step forward, much colder this run

[Weather Will]

At 8 days out EURO and GFS.   Hopefully, the GFS is correct with more spacing before the next western wave comes ashore.