Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[Ji]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Not a torch, but that low tracking over the GLs doesn't help the low/mid levels. Op run 8 days out so who cares.

why is there always a low over the great lakes? the lack of high pressure over SE Canada has been startling the past several years

[Ji]

they should run the ensembles first and then operationals

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

What period are you referring to? And what pattern am I rooting for?

In the Macro the -PDO TNH loading pattern....with the dominant features being the pacific ridge, -PDO, SER/WAR.  There has been some variability...mostly due to the AO.  When the AO is positive or neutral its been an utter torch disaster with no cold anywhere south of Hudson Bay.  When the AO goes negative we get cold dumping west of us and we can sometimes luck into a random progressive wave.  But that is NEVER going to be a path to a snowy winter...the best we can hope for is to get lucky a couple times with waves and avoid a total snowless winter...but forget ever getting a legit snowy winter that way.  7 years is long enough to know what that is going to look like...the goalposts in that dominant longwave configuration are established and their between bad and worse.  No animosity here...you can root for whatever you want...but I truly don't understand why we would want to take our chances with more of what has lead to the worst snow fail in history.  

ETA:  remember I said anything less that above avg snow this year given the potential is a total and udder disaster fail.  So when I say fail I am not saying no snow like last winter.  I don't think that is on the table.  I hope anyways.  But if we revert to a -PDO TNH dominant pattern the thoughts of a big finish our off the table and that is a fail to me.  So maybe we just disagree on what an acceptable outcome for this winter is.  

Lastly... to be fair, MAYBE adding a nino stj to this equation would increase the potential some...MAYBE.  It didnt help much in 2019 once the PNA TNH took over...we were left trying to get scraps from progressive waves and it was mostly a fail.  But MAYBE...id still rather not test that out.  

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

why is there always a low over the great lakes? the lack of high pressure over SE Canada has been startling the past several years

Different reasons. TPV lobe position is spinning off energy in this case. What we need is a legit NA block with a quasi-stationary 50-50 low. That would lock HP in SE Canada where we want it.

[AtlanticWx]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I hear what you’re saying. Even in a great pattern, and even if we have plenty of cold air, we still wouldn’t expect to get a hit with every storm. Take the 1980s for example, it was plenty cold but many storms were misses, suppressed, or badly timed that we got rain or sleet. In those cases, cold air wasn’t a problem. Something else was. Now? Cold air is sorely lacking after the canada torch and in this specific case, we DO need 10,000 things to come together right for it to snow. 

Maybe later in the season cold air will be more abundant and we’d only need a few more things to go right.

And by the way, we already got snow in a bad pattern this season. Dec 10th, I believe. 

exactly, like AGW is happening fast but i feel like especially in the forums it's exaggerated for how much of an effect it has. it still can snow, like on dec 11 when we got a T-3" area wide storm when we expected nothing in a pretty horrible pattern because it just came together perfectly

i think while a lot of the snowlessness recently has to do w AGW & its effects, i also think its just really bad luck along w the -PDO worsening everything since 2016

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The debate about the GEFS is silly because I think its just wrong...

Yeah but once you threw that fail scenario out there yesterday and what would happen...the thread latched onto it (I mean I know I did...I was somewhat anxiously waiting for the eps last night to make sure it wouldn't bleed that way). It was kinda like "What if it's not wrong?"

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

In the Macro the -PDO TNH loading pattern....with the dominant features being the pacific ridge, -PDO, SER/WAR.  There has been some variability...mostly due to the AO.  When the AO is positive or neutral its been an utter torch disaster with no cold anywhere south of Hudson Bay.  When the AO goes negative we get cold dumping west of us and we can sometimes luck into a random progressive wave.  But that is NEVER going to be a path to a snowy winter...the best we can hope for is to get lucky a couple times with waves and avoid a total snowless winter...but forget ever getting a legit snowy winter that way.  7 years is long enough to know what that is going to look like...the goalposts in that dominant longwave configuration are established and their between bad and worse.  No animosity here...you can root for whatever you want...but I truly don't understand why we would want to take our chances with more of what has lead to the worst snow fail in history.  

ETA:  remember I said anything less that above avg snow this year given the potential is a total and udder disaster fail.  So when I say fail I am not saying no snow like last winter.  I don't think that is on the table.  I hope anyways.  But if we revert to a -PDO TNH dominant pattern the thoughts of a big finish our off the table and that is a fail to me.  So maybe we just disagree on what an acceptable outcome for this winter is.  

Lastly... to be fair, MAYBE adding a nino stj to this equation would increase the potential some...MAYBE.  It didnt help much in 2019 once the PNA TNH took over...we were left trying to get scraps from progressive waves and it was mostly a fail.  But MAYBE...id still rather not test that out.  

Do you believe if we had a neutral or slightly positive PDO phase this winter, things would have been different? Do you think we will ever see a +PDO again? It seems like a latch key for any decent snow chances in these parts.

[AtlanticWx]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Do you believe if we had a neutral or slightly positive PDO phase this winter, things would have been different? Do you think we will ever see a +PDO again? It seems like a latch key for any decent snow chances in these parts.

ofc we'll see a +PDO again, it's a decadal oscillation so it usually flips every ~10 years or so

[IronTy]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 udder disaster fail.  

Lol that sums it up, time for a glass of milk.  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Lol that sums it up, time for a glass of milk.  

Haha, I see what you did there!  Mooooo!

[NorthArlington101]

There are more EPS members interested in the 4th than I'd assumed there would be. A slight step up from 00z... maybe 10 members with something "trackable" in the general area, which is good enough for this sicko.

What a look in a winter of old. Right where ya want it

 

alas...

[aldie 22]

7 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Lol that sums it up, time for a glass of milk.  

I know a good brand 

[IronTy]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

I know a good brand 

Unless things turn around I think it's the motto for this winter.

 

The Udder Disaster Winter 

[nj2va]

Bears watching on the EPS for next Thursday.  Verbatim stays offshore but there’s a handful of members that are interesting.  Surface temps too warm.  Instead of worrying about the 384H long range models, I’ll stay focused on two potential windows next week.

eta:  ninja’d by NA101

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Hope this is wrong, it just never wants to come east lol.


.

That is textbook -AO/-PNA/TNH  

[nj2va]

Just now, IronTy said:

Unless things turn around I think it's the motto for this winter.

 

The Udder Disaster Winter 

Unless things turn around……8 days into winter?

[NorthArlington101]

EPS ens aren't cold enough for Jan 6-8th unless you are out west either, unfortunately. I know the snow mean isn't what you should solely be looking at... but man, what a window /s. Obviously waaay too soon to know, but this looked better 24/48hrs ago.

[IronTy]

6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Unless things turn around……8 days into winter?

Sun angle already increasing.  Only a matter of time.

[NorthArlington101]

Bears watching on the EPS for next Thursday.  Verbatim stays offshore but there’s a handful of members that are interesting.  Surface temps too warm.  Instead of worrying about the 384H long range models, I’ll stay focused on two potential windows next week.
eta:  ninja’d by NA101

Not much of a difference in the odds between the Thursday storm and the next weekend one honestly on the 12z and the latter is dependent on the former, so might as well play ball w/ Jan. 4.

[Ji]

So the truth is…..deep down…no one thought this winter would be like this so far

The vision was

A cold late November early December with a snow window

A mid month warmup but not bad +2 at the worst but the pattern would be changing by Dec 20

Then our best chance for our white Christmas in years

A chance for a winter storm late December early January with the best of our Nino winter still ahead of us

40 inch winter on the way

[Allsnow]

@Heisy 

[Ji]

[mention=8091]Heisy[/mention] 

Leave him alone. He said he is done

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

So the truth is…..deep down…no one thought this winter would be like this so far

The vision was

A cold late November early December with a snow window

A mid month warmup but not bad +2 at the worst but the pattern would be changing by Dec 20

Then our best chance for our white Christmas in years

A chance for a winter storm late December early January with the best of our Nino winter still ahead of us

40 inch winter on the way

idk. i think most people expected very little through the first week of Jan or so. the forecast myself and a colleague made for our company had a blowtorch December lmao

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

@Heisy 

Cutter > fropa > cold/dry 

What I’m interested in is what happens after

[Ji]

idk. i think most people expected very little through the first week of Jan or so. the forecast myself and a colleague made for our company had a blowtorch December lmao

I think the Dec 20-30 blowtorch was the big surprise and it’s pushed everything back

[Ji]

Cutter > fropa > cold/dry 
What I’m interested in is what happens after

Just don’t use the weeklies lol

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Cutter > fropa > cold/dry 

What I’m interested in is what happens after

theoretically, that cutter should force a block via wave breaking. that’s what we’re hoping for anyway. regardless, we’ll see a transition back to an Aleutian Low regime as the Pacific jet gets its act together 

[Terpeast]

Just now, Ji said:

Just don’t use the weeklies lol

Trying to pin me on what I did to you eh? 

This isn’t a weekly, and it’s less than 2 weeks out. 

Nice try @Ji

[Jebman]

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

So the truth is…..deep down…no one thought this winter would be like this so far

The vision was

A cold late November early December with a snow window

A mid month warmup but not bad +2 at the worst but the pattern would be changing by Dec 20

Then our best chance for our white Christmas in years

A chance for a winter storm late December early January with the best of our Nino winter still ahead of us

40 inch winter on the way

I take some of the blame. I ran my mouth about a big snow winter for months. I promised everyone rotating comma heads full of torrential  snow. Then PSU educated me about the base state issues........and that jukebox just trailed off like the grinch pulled the plug.

[cbmclean]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

I think the Dec 20-30 blowtorch was the big surprise and it’s pushed everything back

@brooklynwx99 mentioned that was linked to the unexpectedly strong +EAMT which caused thepac jet to overextend.  That said it feels like we get more bad breaks than good breaks, and when the break bad, the break BAD.