Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[WxUSAF]

24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That's actually a really nice west based -nao signal there for a smoothed means.

@psuhoffman is right that we’ve seen this -WPO/-NAO combo a bunch in recent years and it has mostly burned us big time. Difference this year is that Niño forcing and the response to the strat vortex weakening *should* move that PAC ridge east into AK and the west coast and it can quickly evolve into a woofwoof KU type pattern. In recent years, Niña forcing reinforces the WPO and hence the western trough and so we only got transient periods when the ridge moved east.

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

So psu lives to see another day?

He did say he didn't buy the GEFS look. Ofc he then proceeded to make multiple posts describing what he thought the result would be if it went down that way, driving weenies to the ledge.

[aldie 22]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

He did say he didn't buy the GEFS look. Ofc he then proceeded to make multiple posts describing what he thought the result would be if it went down that way, driving weenies to the ledge.

Part of me thinks he wanted the GFS to be right

[Allsnow]

57 minutes ago, CAPE said:

GEFS correcting towards the EPS/GEPS in the LR.

It makes sense giving the mjo going into p3 that we see pna improvements. Sometimes their is a lag time with the response by I like closer to the 15th. 
 

@psuhoffman I agree with him on the idea if we revert back to a Nina look it’s most likely over. We don’t have time to recover from that and the strong Nino didn’t help the base state 

[Ji]

He did say he didn't buy the GEFS look. Ofc he then proceeded to make multiple posts describing what he thought the result would be if it went down that way, driving weenies to the ledge.

To say if the gfs was right would be game over was a little over the top lol. He knows ninos best windows are late Jan early Feb

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

To say if the gfs was right would be game over was a little over the top lol. He knows ninos best windows are late Jan early Feb

I think the idea was if the pattern went in that direction it would lock in for awhile, and not necessarily ever get to the more typical late winter Nino pattern. There are elements with this Nino that are different than previous strong events, and throw in the possibility of SSW event, could be some curveballs down the road.

[jayyy]

2 long range runs of the GEFS - which were certainly pretty ugly vs. prior runs - sent this sub into a frenzy of sorts. To say we need some snow would be an understatement. Pretty sure many in here would cry happy tears to just wake up to an inch of snow at this point.

Glad to see the GEFS remembered we’re in a niño this morning. Poor CAPE has had to keep these weenies from jumping off the ledge.

[cbmclean]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I think the idea was if the pattern went in that direction it would lock in for awhile, and not necessarily ever get to the more typical late winter Nino pattern. There are elements with this Nino that are different than previous strong events, and throw in the possibility of SSW event, could be some curveballs down the road.

Something similar happened in 2019.  The El Nino never Ninoed.

[Kevin Reilly]

9 hours ago, Terpeast said:

 

NS vort quashes the SS wave a bit and that's why it's a miss on this run. The canadian holds the NS vort back a bit and then tries to phase with a neutral tilt, that's how we get colder air in and the low further N without torching the mids. That's the path to a (minor) win. Won't be a significant event. Maximum upside is probably a 2-4 incher if we can reel that in. Otherwise it's a miss OTS.

Ensembles say we get another shot on the 7-8th but the Op runs seem to have other ideas. Will lean on ensembles at that range, though.

 

Where is the cold high up north this would most likely be a cold air would it not?

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Something similar happened in 2019.  The El Nino never Ninoed.

that was barely even a nino. more like a strong neutral

https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

[dallen7908]

44 minutes ago, jayyy said:

2 long range runs of the GEFS - which were certainly pretty ugly vs. prior runs - sent this sub into a frenzy of sorts. To say we need some snow would be an understatement. Pretty sure many in here would cry happy tears to just wake up to an inch of snow at this point.

Glad to see the GEFS remembered we’re in a niño this morning. Poor CAPE has had to keep these weenies from jumping off the ledge.

inch of snow ... and stay around long enough to give the weather observer at BWI a chance to measure it. 

[Ji]

when did this happen?

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

when did this happen?

700+ hour maps, really?

At least it's not showing a aleutian ridge, so there's that.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

700+ hour maps, really?

At least it's not showing a aleutian ridge, so there's that.

lol we have been okay to show the weeklies for the past 3 months....until now?

[aldie 22]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

when did this happen?

Crowded theater meet Ji yelling fire for a 792 hour map valid for January 25th -30th

[Heisy]

I think the more N stream energy we have interject into the 3-5th wave will help us with the 6-8th wave. Just something to keep an eye on.


.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol we have been okay to show the weeklies for the past 3 months....until now?

Even though they did a decent job for December, we shouldn't be trusting even the weeklies beyond 2-3 week lead times

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Even though they did a decent job for December, we shouldn't be trusting even the weeklies beyond 2-3 week lead times

are those even the weeklies? I mean it's a snapshot of a single week

[Terpeast]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

are those even the weeklies?

Appears not

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

are those even the weeklies? I mean it's a snapshot of a single week

so if i showed a 7 day snapshot instead of a 5, its going to be colder?

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

so if i showed a 7 day snapshot instead of a 5, its going to be colder?

The way these models are it just might. I mean how did it get to that point, what did the week prior look like how about the week after why did you pick that particular week? After 20 plus years of doing the same schtick you've lost all transparency to your act. Sorry bro

[Alfoman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

so if i showed a 7 day snapshot instead of a 5, its going to be colder?

No Ji, it's that when you get choosey with run-to-run Week 4/5 ENS Mean outputs, you're going to drive yourself up a damn wall. 

Just moved up to the DMV from the Southeast...somehow ya'll are more pessimistic than them down there 

[Heisy]

12z cmc and gfs have better TPV positioning and cold press out ahead of the potential Jan 6-8 wave. Like i mentioned both with more phasing with the N stream. Could be good here we’ll see



.

[Heisy]

See if this comes up the coast or gets crushed


.

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

The way these models are it just might. I mean how did it get to that point, what did the week prior look like how about the week after why did you pick that particular week?

well I took a mouse and glided it from left to right on the date fields and it went from Blue to Red(jan 25-32) and the gradually back to blue again in early February

no--thats not the real reason---it was this tweet here that got me to dig in

otherwise i wasnt even looking at the weeklies

 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

No Ji, it's that when you get choosey with run-to-run Week 4/5 ENS Mean outputs, you're going to drive yourself up a damn wall. 

Just moved up to the DMV from the Southeast...somehow ya'll are more pessimistic than them down there 

And the NYC forum is even more pessimistic than we are. According to them, it's never going to snow again even up there

[NorthArlington101]

Snowing in favored zones west at 207 on the 12z- temps are marginal.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

And the NYC forum is even more pessimistic than we are. According to them, it's never going to snow again even up there

they havent had measurable snow for 900 days or something in a row lol...and they got Don Sutherland who has turned into the biggest warminsta on the planet!

[Weather Will]

I am taking a one week at a time worth of storms approach at this point, 100s of pages with people repeating the same thing over and over.  (Including myself).  This work week looks like the first storm brings another round of snow for the ski resorts. WB 12Z GFS for midweek storm.

[NorthArlington101]

Snowing in favored zones west at 207 on the 12z- temps are marginal.

Crawling up the coast - western and central VA doing alright through 213. Couple of inches