Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[cbmclean]

Just a public service announcement: there is a thread devoted to open ended discussion of "Will it ever snow again".

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So basically, the pattern progression the next few weeks is gonna have huge implications for the future. Will be watching ensembles closely (and a bit nervously given what it could mean). Man I hope the GEFS is wrong!

 

Might be a good time to reduce the limit your app sets on your time here.

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

it's not that warm at the surface..maybe mid 30s.  It's not that hard to get 2-3" of snow in Leesburg after a changeover on January 4th.   You did it like 24 times in 2012-13

First time I’ve seen something ahead with way low and high are setting up 1/8. Not much else held up so far but that’s a good look I hope happens 

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

I'd take 04-05 and 06-07 in a heartbeat.  We never thought the PV would leave Alaska in 2006

And Bang. Epic Lake  Effect Chase in Feb 

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Might be a good time to reduce the limit your app sets on your time here.

Please don't tell me how to use my app...Now, I may not need it if things go to crap...I'll just lose interest on tracking like I did last February and won't have a desire to be on here or TT, lol

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Just a public service announcement: there is a thread devoted to open ended discussion of "Will it ever snow again".

Given the GEFS runs today, the subjects overlapped. That's gonna happen sometimes. Ensemble runs are long range: but the 12z and 18z gefs showed (or burped) something comparable to the previous years, raising the questions.

[cbmclean]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Given the GEFS runs today, the subjects overlapped. That's gonna happen sometimes. Ensemble runs are long range: but the 12z and 18z gefs showed (or burped) something comparable to the previous years, raising the questions.

Sure, just wanted others to be aware so the long range thread doesn't get overwhelmed.  Many of the questions you are asking about the apparent tipping point are also of intense interest to me.

[cbmclean]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Please don't tell me how to use my app...Now, I may not need it if things go to crap...I'll just lose interest on tracking like I did last February and won't have a desire to be on here or TT, lol

I don't even have the discipline to use an app...I'll be obsessively following, rooting against our nations NWP establishment.

[WEATHER53]

BWI over 7” for month .

only 1969 and 2009 top that since 1950

over 6 “” in Dec are1973, 1983, 1996  and 2018

 

[Terpeast]

Gettin' close... and has support from the canadian

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Gettin' close... and has support from the canadian

 

NS vort quashes the SS wave a bit and that's why it's a miss on this run. The canadian holds the NS vort back a bit and then tries to phase with a neutral tilt, that's how we get colder air in and the low further N without torching the mids. That's the path to a (minor) win. Won't be a significant event. Maximum upside is probably a 2-4 incher if we can reel that in. Otherwise it's a miss OTS.

Ensembles say we get another shot on the 7-8th but the Op runs seem to have other ideas. Will lean on ensembles at that range, though.

 

[jayyy]

Gettin' close... and has support from the canadian

Can’t say I’m mad about seeing a suppressed storm 7 days out. As you said, maximum impact would be advisory level at best if the stars aligned, but shit.. even a 1-3 / 2-4 event would get this subforum rockin


.

[Ji]

 
NS vort quashes the SS wave a bit and that's why it's a miss on this run. The canadian holds the NS vort back a bit and then tries to phase with a neutral tilt, that's how we get colder air in and the low further N without torching the mids. That's the path to a (minor) win. Won't be a significant event. Maximum upside is probably a 2-4 incher if we can reel that in. Otherwise it's a miss OTS.
Ensembles say we get another shot on the 7-8th but the Op runs seem to have other ideas. Will lean on ensembles at that range, though.
 

I've seen worse looks



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[jayyy]

I've seen worse looks



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It’s workable. Need a bit of help and timing luck, but love to see that high in Canada and snow all the way down to the Carolinas

[AtlanticWx]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Gettin' close... and has support from the canadian

euro has an interior storm for this fwiw, i honestly like euro's progression altogether because it's really close to a good snowstorm on jan 7th. pretty nice look where all we're relying on is a single shortwave to go negative, and there being cold ofc

[Ji]

euro has an interior storm for this fwiw, i honestly like euro's progression altogether because it's really close to a good snowstorm on jan 7th. pretty nice look where all we're relying on is a single shortwave to go negative, and there being cold ofc

Euro snow chart gives me a 3 inch mean. Highest I've seen this year

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[CAPE]

All 3 ensemble means have the storm for the 7th on the 0z runs. EPS has the strongest signal for low pressure tracking just off the NC coast with decent cold in place. GEPS is weaker/ further SE, and the GEFS is sort of in the middle- still looks like there are a few camps among the members on low position (as illustrated in my post last evening), but I didn't bother looking at the individual panels this morning. Upshot is this still looks like the best opportunity for frozen in the next 10 days. Verbatim on the EPS it is cold enough for a snow event for western areas, further east it is a bit more marginal but easily the coldest we seen in a long time while actually precipitating. Based on the EPS, my wag would be rain/mix to snow from the Fall line points east.

 

[CAPE]

Looking ahead at the big picture, nothing wrong with this h5 look. I'm sure some will nitpick this or that, but this is a cold look for much of the lower 48. GEPS is similar, with a prominent west based -NAO. The advertised h5 look on the GEFS is clearly not as favorable, but verbatim even it suggests temps are normal/slightly below into the second week of Jan.

[CAPE]

9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Again I need to preface this by saying I think it’s wrong. But I want to clarify the reason I say it’s “game over” in the off chance that’s how it goes. 
 

I’ve been relying on a historical progression in a -pdo Nino with blocking. I got to that expectation by factoring in several variable to conclude the most likely result was a winter with blocking episodes combined with the current enso and PDO state. That progression has a historical pattern. So far we’ve been following that pattern. The way we’ve failed is very similar to past seasons that turned out good. 
 

What the gfs is doing breaks that progression. It drops its back over its knees and then performs a suplex pile drive to it before breaking a chair over its unconscious body. 
 

That is NOT how the pattern gets anywhere good. It’s a regression to the same base state that’s dominated. Frankly it’s not even similar to the “bad” ninos. It’s worse!  And the gfs isn’t implying it’s a temporary thing it’s retracting the jet completely and building the same pacific death ridge we’ve had for 8 years!  
 

This look familiar….

It’s the mean long wave pattern of the last 7 winters! 
Look at the GEFS… 

We do not want to F with that. I have no interest in playing that game anymore.   So in the event the gefs scored the coup here it’s over. That means even a strong bordering on super Nino wasn’t enough to alter the pacific base state some have been blaming on the numerous Ninas. 
 

I think it’s wrong. It flies against all historical precedent. It’s in disagreement with the better ensemble guidance. It’s just 2 runs. So let’s just hope it’s wrong. Because if not its not the answer I wanted to my question. 

It's not a good look, but sometimes we put too much emphasis on smoothed ens snapshots of the longwave pattern and seemingly assume it remains stationary. 'Game over' is a bit hyperbolic.  Even that composite h5 anomaly, which is a 'bad' overall look, is somewhat misleading as some of those winters(2017, 18, 22) featured enough of a shift in the pattern at times to produce cold periods with one or more big snowstorms for the MA and NE. Some winters we end up with consistently 'good'  patterns that produce little to nothing. Ultimately our snow chances always require good wave timing in conjunction with cold air.

[Chris78]

This is the best the GEFS has looked for thr 7th I do believe. 

Just gotta hope there's enough cold air around.

[CAPE]

A bit of an improved look on the 6z GEFS for the 7th. More consolidated low position just off the NC coast, similar to the EPS.

[snowfan]

8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

This is the best the GEFS has looked for thr 7th I do believe. 

Just gotta hope there's enough cold air around.

The suite of op guidance at range isn’t far off for temps…..GFS being the warmest. Canadian is by far the coldest but the storm is suppressed and never gets north of the VA/NC line.

[Ralph Wiggum]

41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's not a good look, but sometimes we put too much emphasis on smoothed ens snapshots of the longwave pattern and seemingly assume it remains stationary. 'Game over' is a bit hyperbolic.  Even that composite h5 anomaly, which is a 'bad' overall look, is somewhat misleading as some of those winters(2017, 18, 22) featured enough of a shift in the pattern at times to produce cold periods with one or more big snowstorms for the MA and NE. Some winters we end up with consistently 'good'  patterns that produce little to nothing. Ultimately our snow chances always require good wave timing in conjunction with cold air.

Take what he considers "game over" with a grain of salt. He is hunting the epic winter and hecs mostly iirc.

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, snowfan said:

The suite of op guidance at range isn’t far off for temps…..GFS being the warmest. Canadian is by far the coldest but the storm is suppressed and never gets north of the VA/NC line.

Feels like a thread the needle type deal with temps.

[Ji]

Feels like a thread the needle type deal with temps.

What mjo phase are we in now? 1? Maybe the models trend colder.

[CAPE]

GEFS correcting towards the EPS/GEPS in the LR.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, CAPE said:

GEFS correcting towards the EPS/GEPS in the LR.

Was thinking about posting that--glad I was looking at it right. Not gonna lie the correction is a relief...hopefully it continues.

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

GEFS correcting towards the EPS/GEPS in the LR.

Game on 

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

GEFS correcting towards the EPS/GEPS in the LR.

That's actually a really nice west based -nao signal there for a smoothed means.

[Ji]

GEFS correcting towards the EPS/GEPS in the LR.

So psu lives to see another day?