stormtracker Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Since it's time, and the last thread has gone from sugar to shit, here is the thread that is going to deliver. 6 8 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Is your upcoming Mexico due to the fact that you are Still a dazzling urbanite??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2023 Author Share Posted December 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Is your upcoming Mexico due to the fact that you are Still a dazzling urbanite??? Si, Senor. I am here now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 According to CWG the prime time for snow in the beltway area is between MLK day and President's day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 According to CWG the prime time for snow in the beltway area is between MLK day and President's day.I feel like mid January thru February is always prime climo for our area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 1 minute ago, jayyy said: I feel like mid January thru February is always prime climo for our area. That's usually why they don't report on the lack of snow until it's around Jan 20 and there's been no snow or significantly below average snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, jayyy said: I feel like mid January thru February is always prime climo for our area. Historically, Jan. 15 - March 15 for my area. I don't consider the snow season over until April 10. Several 6+" snows in early April last 50+ years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Latest WB Euro weeklies say patience will pay off... 30 period Jan. 10 thru Feb. 10. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Don't we want to have the mean squeezed between cold and dry and a warm juiced system in the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Don't we want to have the mean squeezed between cold and dry and a warm juiced system in the long range? Yes yes we do. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Since it's time, and the last thread has gone from sugar to shit, here is the thread that is going to deliver. You aren't kidding. Just catching up. The last part of the old thread was a mini dumpster fire. Quite a few posts belonged in the panic room thread. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Climatologically, ocean temperatures off of Ocean City are 48-53 in December, 42-47 in January, 41-44 in February, 42-46 in March, and 46-53 in April. So, the oceanic winter is just getting started. https://www.seatemperature.org/north-america/united-states/ocean-city-april.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 It's HH. Feeling optimistic about HH GFS. (Probably partly because this Old Fashioned is over the top good). This place needs a lift. Lets see what it do. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: It's HH. Feeling optimistic about HH GFS. (Probably partly because this Old Fashioned is over the top good). This place needs a lift. Lets see what it do. Something brewing around 6 Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Did anyone notice the 12z euro? I know it’s the op run, but look Cold high up top, gulf low brewing. It’s a miss, but it’s close. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: It's HH. Feeling optimistic about HH GFS. (Probably partly because this Old Fashioned is over the top good). This place needs a lift. Lets see what it do. The main reason "this place needs a lift' is because it is almost incessantly told how bad everything is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Just now, Solution Man said: Something brewing around 6 Jan Don't spoil it, I have slow ass WB. That has been a window of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Just now, stormy said: The main reason "this place needs a lift' is because it is almost incessantly told how bad everything is. Not by me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not by me. I'm fine with you Cape. I believe you are 20/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Its easy af to be pessimistic, given our location. What's the point in doing that though? We know the potential upside when it all comes together. Lets look for the key pieces that can make that happen. They are there on guidance. 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 18 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Something brewing around 6 Jan oh man not again 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Its easy af to be pessimistic, given our location. What's the point in doing that though? We know the potential upside when it all comes together. Lets look for the key pieces that can make that happen. They are there on guidance. You are 100% correct!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Its easy af to be pessimistic, given our location. What's the point in doing that though? We know the potential upside when it all comes together. Lets look for the key pieces that can make that happen. They are there on guidance. I think this board is a microcosm of human behavior. Some people tend toward optimism, some toward pessimism. I posit there are few areas where this is more blatant than the weather. It's something that nobody can do a damn thing about and really unmasks our inherent biases. I tend toward "defensive pessimism". Eternal optimists annoy the fock out of me. But it's like an introvert vs an extrovert. Neither is inherently wrong or bad. And let's face it, the pessimists have gotten it right for a while now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 1 minute ago, IronTy said: I think this board is a microcosm of human behavior. Some people tend toward optimism, some toward pessimism. I posit there are few areas where this is more blatant than the weather. It's something that nobody can do a damn thing about and really unmasks our inherent biases. I tend toward "defensive pessimism". Eternal optimists annoy the fock out of me. But it's like an introvert vs an extrovert. Neither is inherently wrong or bad. And let's face it, the pessimists have gotten it right for a while now. When the goal is snow and most of us live well east of the Allegheny front, like I said, it's super easy to be a pessimist. Boring. More rewarding to do the analysis, have fun with the tracking process, and when it pays off, fucking enjoy the hell out of it. Frankly, some here should find another hobby. 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 37 minutes ago, CAPE said: When the goal is snow and most of us live well east of the Allegheny front, like I said, it's super easy to be a pessimist. Boring. More rewarding to do the analysis, have fun with the tracking process, and when it pays off, fucking enjoy the hell out of it. Frankly, some here should find another hobby. Not sure I'd say it's easier to be a pessimist around here so much as it's just more accurate given our location...assuming the goal is snow as you say. But I do agree that incessant bellyaching isn't really contributing much and its probably just best to find a new hobby. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 18z GFS is pretty much a dud for the majority of the lower 48 thru the first week of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 wow wasnt expecting this the deep into the first week of January. that is not a pattern change. Hopefully the GFS is lost 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 34 minutes ago, CAPE said: When the goal is snow and most of us live well east of the Allegheny front, like I said, it's super easy to be a pessimist. Boring. More rewarding to do the analysis, have fun with the tracking process, and when it pays off, fucking enjoy the hell out of it. Frankly, some here should find another hobby. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 For those who look at the 18z GFS and think it is a crap run verbatim (Hi Ji), remember it is a single op run and we are still 8 + days out from the initial window of interest. Look at the big picture at h5- the shortwaves are on the playing field, rolling across the southern US, while the HL look is favorable(note the oranges/ reds in the right places). We just can't know the details yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Just now, Ji said: wow wasnt expecting this the deep into the first week of January. that is not a pattern change ? There is low in the gulf high to the north and 50/50 low…cmon man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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