January 2024 temperature forecast contest _ enter by 18z Jan 2nd

[Roger Smith]

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ...

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

 

As is our custom, relaxed late penalties for new years, no penalty will be assessed until 18z 2nd and it will be 1% for every six hrs or portion thereafter. 

Will assess viability of contest depending on turnout, would turn thread into a discussion if we fall below a quorum. 

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

0.5        -0.5      -1.0         -1.0    1.0         1.0        0.5      1.0         -0.5

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

  1.5        1.2       1.4          0.4        0.6      1.1         1.3        2.0     -0.8

[rainsucks]

DCA: +2.7

NYC: +3.1

BOS: +3.2

ORD: +4.0

ATL: +1.5

IAH: +2.0

DEN: +2.5

PHX: +1.5

SEA: +1.1

 

[bkviking]

DCA: +2.0

NYC: +2.1

BOS: +2.4

ORD: +2.2

ATL: +0.8

IAH: +1.3

DEN: +1.0

PHX: +1.0

SEA: +1.2
 

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

1.1         1.4        1.6         2.2        -0.1     -0.2       -0.3     -0.4      1.2

[Tom]

DCA: -0.8

NYC: -1.1

BOS: -1.1

ORD: -2.2

ATL: -1.9

IAH: +0.1

DEN: +0.2

PHX: +0.1

SEA: +0.6

[Roger Smith]

-0.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.2 _ +1.0 _ -1.0 _ +0.9 _ +3.5 _ +3.8 _ +4.5

[Stormchaserchuck1]

DCA +4.5 NYC +4.2 BOS +3.4 ORD +2.0 ATL+4.8 IAH +4.4 DEN +0.5 PHX -1.0 SEA -2.0

[wxdude64]

DCA:  -0.4

NYC:  +0.2

BOS:  +0.8

ORD:  +1.1

ATL:  -0.7

IAH:  -1.1

DEN:  -1.3

PHX:  -1.9

SEA:  +0.2

[so_whats_happening]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+1.4    +1.6     +1.7      -1.3       -.8     -1       -1.2       -1.8     -1.2

[wxallannj]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+1.2    +1.4    +1.7     -0.5    -1.2     +1.2     -1.5    -2.2    -1.5

[Rjay]

DCA: +1.5

NYC: +1.5

BOS: +1.5

ORD: +2.5

ATL: +1.0

IAH: +2.0

DEN: +0.5

PHX: +0.5

SEA: +1.0

[Rhino16]

-0.2 _ -0.6 _ -0.8 __ +1.0 _ -0.4 _ 0.0 __ -0.7 _ -0.6 _ +1.2

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.2     1.0      1.6         1.3    -1.7    -0.5     -3.1     -1.0    -1.6

[Roger Smith]

Welcome back everyone, you'll find all 2023 contest scoring and a historical record of the contest going back to earliest days of American Weather Forum (2013 to 2023) in the DEC 2023 thread. 

We now venture forth into the great unknown of 2024 with clean slates and keen for the challenge. 

 

Table of forecasts for January 2024

 

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Stormchaser Chuck _____ +4.5 _ +4.2 _+3.4 __ +2.0 _+4.8 _+4.4 __+0.5 _-1.0 _-2.0

rainsucks ________________+2.7 _ +3.1 _ +3.2 __ +4.0 _ +1.5 _+2.0 __+2.5 _+1.5 _+1.1

BKViking ________________ +2.0 _ +2.1 _ +2.4 __ +2.2 _ +0.8 _+1.3 __+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.2

RJay _____________________+1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +2.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 __+0.5 _+0.5 _+1.0

hudsonvalley21 _________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___+0.4 _ +0.6 _ +1.1 __+1.3 _+2.0 _-0.8

so_whats_happening ____ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 __ -1.3 _ -0.8 _ -1.0 __ -1.2 _ -1.8 _ -1.2

wxallannj ________________ +1.2 _ +1.4 _ +1.7 __ -0.5 _ -1.2 _ +1.2 __ -1.5 _ -2.2 _ -1.5

___ Consensus __________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.6 __ +1.1 _ -0.2 _ +1.0 __ +0.4 _ -0.1 _ +0.4

DonSutherland1 _________ +1.1 __+1.4 _ +1.6 __ +2.2 _ -0.1 _ -0.2 __ -0.3 _ -0.4 _+1.2

Scotty Lightning _________ +0.5 _-0.5 _ -1.0 __ -1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _-0.5

Normal ___________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

RodneyS ________________ -0.2 _ +1.0 _ +1.6 __ +1.3 _ -1.7 _ -0.5 ___ -3.1 _ -1.0 _ -1.6

Rhino16 __________________ -0.2 _ -0.6 _ -0.8 __ +1.0 _ -0.4 _ 0.0 ___ -0.7 _ -0.6 _ +1.2

wxdude64 _______________ -0.4 _ +0.2 _ +0.8 __ +1.1 _ -0.7 _ -1.1 ___ -1.3 _ -1.9 _ +0.2

Roger Smith _____________ -0.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.2 __ +1.0 _ -1.0 _ +0.9 __ +3.5 _ +3.8 _ +4.5

Tom _____________________ -0.8 _ -1.1 __ -1.1 ___ -2.2 _ -1.9 _ +0.1 ___ +0.2 _ +0.1 _ +0.6

 

Persistence _____________ +4.0 _ +5.5 _ +5.1 ___ +8.6 _+2.6 _+1.9 __ +6.2 _+4.7 _+3.5

____________________

color codes are used for warmest and coldest forecasts (not including Persistence) 

Consensus for 14 forecasts is average of 7th and 8th ranked. 

 

[Roger Smith]

After first half of January (1-16) we have these anomalies and projections ...

______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

__ (anom 16d) ______ +2.5 _ +4.4 _ +4.8 ___ -1.1 _ -1.0 _ -4.3 __-12.3 _ -5.0 _ -6.0*

__ (p anom 31d) ____ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ____ -1.0 _ -1.0 _ -2.5 __ -4.5 _ -1.0 _ -2.5

 

_end of Jan anoms _+2.3 _ +3.3 _ +3.2 ____ +1.1 _ -0.5 _ -3.0 __ -3.5 _ -0.8 _ -1.0**

 

* SEA missing data 3rd, a mild day nearby locations, assessed as +4 and reported anomaly -6.7 adjusted. 

** SEA still missing data 3rd, mild day nearby locations, assessed as +4 and reported anomaly -1.2 adjusted. 

 

_17th __ Take about 0.5 to 1.0 off these reported anomalies after today's large negative anomalies (DCA was 17 below normal). DEN on the other hand gained about 1.0 today (+3 anom). Cold to very cold for a few more days in any areas, then generally milder again although a few cold days in the mix. I have basically assumed an average for -1 for rest of January to balance these intervals out. I went with +1 rest of the way for Phoenix and +3 for Denver. We are all going to get smoked by RodneyS for DEN barring a miraculous warming trend, and max 60 may not save us (if RodneyS scores >60). Wxallannj and StormC also are poised to apply misery. 

_31st ___ Final anomalies are posted, adjusted for SEA because of one day missing data. At DEN, despite last ten days being generally 10-15 above normal, cold was so intense mid-month that anomaly ended up as -3.5. This was also a factor in ORD with three days near -30 anomalies mid-month setting up a recovery from a very low value that ended up a little above average eventually. 

Snowfall to date (contest post is in Dec and will be merged with this info in the Feb thread.

 

Snowfall to Jan 31, 2024

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

_ 7.9 __ 2.3 __ 9.2 ___ 20.0 _ 19.5 _ 53.6 ___ 15.4 _ 3.0 _ 27.8

 

[Roger Smith]

 

Scoring for January 2024

 

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL

 

RodneyS ________________ 50 _ 54 _ 68 __ 172 __ 96 _ 76 _ 50 __ 222 _ 394 __ 92 _100 _ 88 __ 280 ____ 674

so_whats_happening ____82 _ 66 _ 70 __ 218 __ 52 _ 94 _ 60 __ 206 _ 424 __ 54 _ 84 _ 96 __ 234 _____ 658

wxdude64 _______________46 _ 38 _ 52 __ 136 __100_ 96 _ 62 __258 _ 394 __ 56 _ 82 _ 76 __ 214 _____ 608

wxallannj ________________78 _ 62 _ 70 __ 210 ___68 _ 86 _ 16 __ 170 __ 380 __ 60 _ 76 _ 90 __ 226 _____ 606

DonSutherland1 _________76 _ 62 _ 68 __ 206 __ 78 _ 92 _ 44 __ 214 _ 420 __ 36 _ 88 _ 56 __ 180 _____ 600

___ Consensus __________78 _ 60 _ 68 __ 206 __100_ 94 _ 20 __214 _ 420 __ 22 _ 82 _ 72 __ 176 _____ 596

BKViking ________________ 94 _ 76 _ 84 __ 254 __ 78 _ 74 _ 14 __ 166 _ 420 ___10 _ 60 _ 56 __ 126 _____ 546

hudsonvalley21 _________ 84 _ 58 _ 64 __ 206 __ 86 _ 78 _ 18 __ 182 _ 388 __ 04 _ 40 _ 96 __ 140 _____ 528

Normal __________________ 54 _ 34 _ 36 __ 124 __ 78 _ 90 _ 40 __ 208 _ 332 __ 30 _ 80 _ 80 __ 190 _____ 522

Rhino16 __________________50 _ 22 _ 20 __ 092 __98 _ 98 _ 40 __ 236 _ 328 __ 44 _ 92 _ 56 __ 192 _____ 520

Stormchaser Chuck _____ 56 _ 82 _ 96 __ 234 __ 82 _ 00 _ 00 __ 082 _ 316 __20 _100 _ 80 __ 200 ____ 516

RJay _____________________84 _ 64 _ 66 __ 214 __ 72 _ 70 _ 00 __ 142 _ 356 __ 20 _ 70 _ 60 __ 150 _____ 506

rainsucks ________________92 _ 96 _100__ 288 __42 _ 60 _ 00 __ 102 _ 390 __ 00 _ 50 _ 58 __ 108 _____ 498

Scotty Lightning _________64 _ 24 _ 16 __ 104 __ 58 _ 70 _ 20 __ 148 _ 252 __ 20 _ 60 _ 90 __ 170 _____ 422

Tom _____________________ 38 _ 12 _ 14 __ 064 __ 34 _ 72 _ 38 __ 144 _ 208 __ 26 _ 78 _ 68 __ 172 _____ 380

Roger Smith _____________44 _ 24 _ 32 __ 100 __ 98 _ 90 _ 22 __ 210 _ 310 __ 00 _ 04 _ 00 __ 004 _____ 314

 

Persistence _____________ 66 _ 56 _ 62 __ 184 __ 00 _ 38 _ 02 __ 040 _ 224 __ 00 _ 00 _ 10 __ 010 _____ 234

 

-----------------------------------

EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT 

NYC, BOS __ wins for Rainsucks (2nd highest fcsts) and losses for Stormchaser Chuck (good scores but fcsts a bit too high).

IAH __ a win for wxdude64 with coldest forecast

DEN __ a win for RodneyS with coldest forecast

The other locations did not qualify. DCA went to 3rd highest forecast, and rest were quite close to consensus. 

---------------------------

(forecasts)

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Stormchaser Chuck _____ +4.5 _ +4.2 _+3.4 __ +2.0 _+4.8 _+4.4 __+0.5 _-1.0 _-2.0

rainsucks ________________+2.7 _ +3.1 _ +3.2 __ +4.0 _ +1.5 _+2.0 __+2.5 _+1.5 _+1.1

BKViking ________________ +2.0 _ +2.1 _ +2.4 __ +2.2 _ +0.8 _+1.3 __+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.2

RJay _____________________+1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +2.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 __+0.5 _+0.5_+1.0

hudsonvalley21 _________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___+0.4 _ +0.6 _ +1.1 __+1.3 _+2.0 _-0.8

so_whats_happening ____ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 __ -1.3 _ -0.8 _ -1.0 __ -1.2 _ -1.8 _ -1.2

wxallannj ________________ +1.2 _ +1.4 _ +1.7 __ -0.5 _ -1.2 _ +1.2 __ -1.5 _ -2.2 _ -1.5

___ Consensus __________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.6 __ +1.1 _ -0.2 _ +1.0 __ +0.4 _-0.1 _+0.4

DonSutherland1 _________ +1.1 __+1.4 _ +1.6 __ +2.2 _ -0.1 _ -0.2 __ -0.3 _ -0.4 _+1.2

Scotty Lightning _________ +0.5 _-0.5 _ -1.0 __ -1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _-0.5

Normal ___________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

RodneyS ________________ -0.2 _ +1.0 _ +1.6 __ +1.3 _ -1.7 _ -0.5 ___ -3.1 _ -1.0 _ -1.6

Rhino16 __________________ -0.2 _ -0.6 _ -0.8 __ +1.0 _ -0.4 _ 0.0 ___ -0.7 _ -0.6 _ +1.2

wxdude64 _______________ -0.4 _ +0.2 _ +0.8 __ +1.1 _ -0.7 _ -1.1 ___ -1.3 _ -1.9 _ +0.2

Roger Smith _____________ -0.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.2 __ +1.0 _ -1.0 _ +0.9 __ +3.5 _ +3.8 _ +4.5

Tom _____________________ -0.8 _ -1.1 __ -1.1 ___ -2.2 _ -1.9 _ +0.1 ___ +0.2 _ +0.1 _ +0.6

 

Persistence _____________ +4.0 _ +5.5 _ +5.1 ___ +8.6 _+2.6 _+1.9 __ +6.2 _+4.7 _+3.5

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Thanks Roger

[Roger Smith]

It was an oddball situation out west, a plurality of days above average but overall averages below, due to exceptional cold for a few days. 

DEN averaged +13.5 last four days, but was -27 for Jan 11-16.