Typhoon Tip Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Gfs buries whites with over a foot Tuesday night into wed am Nice to see ski country perhaps cashing in on -NAO trends... I'm still waiting for the operational model versions to stop trying to physically over power the entire planet with their beady-eyed obsession to drill for oil through Lake Superior - but we gotta start somewhere. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 GFS with an another sub-980 low in Ohio for 1/13. Don’t think that one is looking very good right now. Trough is just too deep out west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS with an another sub-980 low in Ohio for 1/13. Don’t think that one is looking very good right now. Trough is just too deep out west. Pain 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Lift lines in the Poconos when it hasn’t snowed in a year…. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS with an another sub-980 low in Ohio for 1/13. Don’t think that one is looking very good right now. Trough is just too deep out west. Two aspects about that which are under-the-radar strange. I mean ... if you didn't know any better - But, the storm on the 10th and the storm on the 13th, shouldn't track along the same path in canonical synoptic meteorology. The typical framework/climatology is that each storm tracks east of the predecessor. It's not impossible, but just more typically speaking. The other aspect is interesting... The storm on the 13th can't go anywhere. So it it bombs toward S Ontario and then smears east. That's the exertion of the -NAO ... Which by the way ( you know all this - ) the -NAO ( west limb variant) storm track is actually S of Ontario, OV to MA. Because of these two facets, the entire frame up from the guidance is anomalous one... Handing anomalies beyond D6 is negotiable anyway, but given those two facets above I'd suggest winter enthusiasts still pay attention to that one. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Anyway... beyond snow/winter agenda ... those two events would likely lead to some flooding concerns. If folks want/need/look for headlines in general, that's certainly on the table too. As is at this time in the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Two aspects about that which are under-the-radar strange. I mean ... if you didn't know any better - But, the storm on the 10th and the storm on the 13th, shouldn't track along the same path in canonical synoptic meteorology. The typical framework/climatology is that each storm tracks east of the predecessor. It's not impossible, but just more typically speaking. The other aspect is interesting... The storm on the 13th can't go anywhere. So it it bombs toward S Ontario and then smears east. That's the exertion of the -NAO ... Which by the way ( you know all this - ) the -NAO ( west limb variant) storm track is actually S of Ontario, OV to MA. Because of these two facets, the entire frame up from the guidance is anomalous one... Handing anomalies beyond D6 is negotiable anyway, but given those two facets above I'd suggest winter enthusiasts still pay attention to that one. I think you kind of see your point if you look at the CMC or ICON regarding the 13th/14th. NOT that I'm telling anyone I take them seriously... but they are called guidance for a reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 5 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: I think you kind of see your point if you look at the CMC or ICON regarding the 13th/14th. NOT that I'm telling anyone I take them seriously... but they are called guidance for a reason Yeah, I just noticed the ICON joining the GGEM there with that forced secondary. But right - ICON. Unless they've upgraded that model, I gave it a try two seasons ago and decided there was no value add 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Let’s hope the end of the month offers something. Definitely starting to smell ratty down this way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I've gotta hope that the blocking is strong enough and the Whites dont get another screaming cutter. That flood a week before christmas did a lot of damage to homes, in at least the $50,000 range. There was also a house to close to the Saco that was completely destroyed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, UnitedWx said: I think you kind of see your point if you look at the CMC or ICON regarding the 13th/14th. NOT that I'm telling anyone I take them seriously... but they are called guidance for a reason It would be nice if the big low near the western Azores can retro a bit, and join forces with the 50/50. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Two aspects about that which are under-the-radar strange. I mean ... if you didn't know any better - But, the storm on the 10th and the storm on the 13th, shouldn't track along the same path in canonical synoptic meteorology. The typical framework/climatology is that each storm tracks east of the predecessor. It's not impossible, but just more typically speaking. The other aspect is interesting... The storm on the 13th can't go anywhere. So it it bombs toward S Ontario and then smears east. That's the exertion of the -NAO ... Which by the way ( you know all this - ) the -NAO ( west limb variant) storm track is actually S of Ontario, OV to MA. Because of these two facets, the entire frame up from the guidance is anomalous one... Handing anomalies beyond D6 is negotiable anyway, but given those two facets above I'd suggest winter enthusiasts still pay attention to that one. look at this evolution on the GEPS. classic stuff here 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, #NoPoles said: I've gotta hope that the blocking is strong enough and the Whites dont get another screaming cutter. That flood a week before christmas did a lot of damage to homes, in at least the $50,000 range. There was also a house to close to the Saco that was completely destroyed. Praying North Conway can make out okay this week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 52 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Praying North Conway can make out okay this week There is 7-8 inches right now in North Conway and Bartlett and moderate to heavy snow falling. This area is doing well today. Hopefully this area will make it through the next storm cycles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 For those interested ... the 12z Euro does pass a burst of WAA snow through the area re the 10th system. N of the CT/RI border with Mass...but you know what? The entire frontal tapestry of that thing is moving so fast, by the time the region goes over to heavy rain it's over with in a matter of 2 hours. You may actually add some snow, NW of along/N of HFD-BOS... before matting down. But point being, it's moving so fast that removal of the entire ground snow appears less likely. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, #NoPoles said: There is 7-8 inches right now in North Conway and Bartlett and moderate to heavy snow falling. This area is doing well Verbatim on the Euro they'll CAD well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Let’s hope the end of the month offers something. Definitely starting to smell ratty down this way I expected January to be underwhelming near the coast...like 1987 and 2003. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I expected January to be underwhelming near the coast...like 1987 and 2003. The big dog Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I expected January to be underwhelming near the coast...like 1987 and 2003. It looks like the Rust Belt will end a long snow drought in a big way over the next two weeks. Midwest first....northeast next is not an unusual progression. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: The big dog Feb? To the extent that you near climo, yea....tou should get something late month, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1/13 looks like crap down here but looks good for NNE and even CNE on the Canadian. 1/17 coming in hot on the Euro. Also of note is a massive Arctic outbreak in the Plains/OHV at the end of the run. The CMC is even more extreme bringing single digits well into TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I expected January to be underwhelming near the coast...like 1987 and 2003. Good January call so far. This storm was hilarious, the usual suspects hyped it into a NYC snowstorm for days and days…when I gave my opinion last weekend and during the week that it wasn’t, I got attacked and trolled lol 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Is 79 knots at 925 Wed at New London on the NAM bad? Asking for a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, H2Otown_WX said: 1/13 looks like crap down here but looks good for NNE and even CNE on the Canadian. 1/17 coming in hot on the Euro. Also of note is a massive Arctic outbreak in the Plains/OHV at the end of the run. The CMC is even more extreme bringing single digits well into TX. If you hump a jma/navgem blend, big big things incoming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 7 minutes ago, JC-CT said: If you hump a jma/navgem blend, big big things incoming Doesn’t everybody hump those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Seems like an extended lull on winter wx. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Close them until February, remember when many were said COD after 3? Insanity 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Is 79 knots at 925 Wed at New London on the NAM bad? Asking for a friend. Like Dak says “ Here we go” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seems like an extended lull on winter wx. You mean like the one we just had these last 3.87 years 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seems like an extended lull on winter wx. seems like a solid window from the 15-23rd afterwards. good agreement on all ensemble guidance 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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