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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Gfs buries whites with over a foot Tuesday night into wed am

Nice to see ski country perhaps cashing in on -NAO trends...  I'm still waiting for the operational model versions to stop trying to physically over power the entire planet with their beady-eyed obsession to drill for oil through Lake Superior  - but we gotta start somewhere.  LOL

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS with an another sub-980 low in Ohio for 1/13. Don’t think that one is looking very good right now. Trough is just too deep out west. 

Two aspects about that which are under-the-radar strange.  I mean ... if you didn't know any better -

But, the storm on the 10th and the storm on the 13th, shouldn't track along the same path in canonical synoptic meteorology. The typical framework/climatology is that each storm tracks east of the predecessor.  It's not impossible, but just more typically speaking.

The other aspect is interesting... The storm on the 13th can't go anywhere. So it it bombs toward S Ontario and then smears east. That's the exertion of the -NAO    ... Which by the way ( you know all this - ) the -NAO ( west limb variant) storm track is actually S of Ontario, OV to MA.

Because of these two facets, the entire frame up from the guidance is anomalous one...  Handing anomalies beyond D6 is negotiable anyway, but given those two facets above I'd suggest winter enthusiasts still pay attention to that one.

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Anyway... beyond snow/winter agenda ... 

those two events would likely lead to some flooding concerns.  If folks want/need/look for headlines in general, that's certainly on the table too.  As is at this time in the GFS.

 

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Two aspects about that which are under-the-radar strange.  I mean ... if you didn't know any better -

But, the storm on the 10th and the storm on the 13th, shouldn't track along the same path in canonical synoptic meteorology. The typical framework/climatology is that each storm tracks east of the predecessor.  It's not impossible, but just more typically speaking.

The other aspect is interesting... The storm on the 13th can't go anywhere. So it it bombs toward S Ontario and then smears east. That's the exertion of the -NAO    ... Which by the way ( you know all this - ) the -NAO ( west limb variant) storm track is actually S of Ontario, OV to MA.

Because of these two facets, the entire frame up from the guidance is anomalous one...  Handing anomalies beyond D6 is negotiable anyway, but given those two facets above I'd suggest winter enthusiasts still pay attention to that one.

I think you kind of see your point if you look at the CMC or ICON regarding the 13th/14th. NOT that I'm telling anyone I take them seriously... but they are called guidance for a reason 

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5 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

I think you kind of see your point if you look at the CMC or ICON regarding the 13th/14th. NOT that I'm telling anyone I take them seriously... but they are called guidance for a reason 

Yeah, I just noticed the ICON joining the GGEM there with that forced secondary.   But right - ICON.  Unless they've upgraded that model, I gave it a try two seasons ago and decided there was no value add

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I've gotta hope that the blocking is strong enough and the Whites dont get another screaming cutter. That flood a week before christmas did a lot of damage to homes, in at least the $50,000 range. There was also a house to close to the Saco that was completely destroyed. 

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1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

I think you kind of see your point if you look at the CMC or ICON regarding the 13th/14th. NOT that I'm telling anyone I take them seriously... but they are called guidance for a reason 

It would be nice if the big low near the western Azores can retro a bit, and join forces with the 50/50.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Two aspects about that which are under-the-radar strange.  I mean ... if you didn't know any better -

But, the storm on the 10th and the storm on the 13th, shouldn't track along the same path in canonical synoptic meteorology. The typical framework/climatology is that each storm tracks east of the predecessor.  It's not impossible, but just more typically speaking.

The other aspect is interesting... The storm on the 13th can't go anywhere. So it it bombs toward S Ontario and then smears east. That's the exertion of the -NAO    ... Which by the way ( you know all this - ) the -NAO ( west limb variant) storm track is actually S of Ontario, OV to MA.

Because of these two facets, the entire frame up from the guidance is anomalous one...  Handing anomalies beyond D6 is negotiable anyway, but given those two facets above I'd suggest winter enthusiasts still pay attention to that one.

look at this evolution on the GEPS. classic stuff here

ezgif-3-86d5d63e75.thumb.gif.094eabf2718cb37a1be94b8471cd7e10.gif

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1 hour ago, #NoPoles said:

I've gotta hope that the blocking is strong enough and the Whites dont get another screaming cutter. That flood a week before christmas did a lot of damage to homes, in at least the $50,000 range. There was also a house to close to the Saco that was completely destroyed. 

Praying North Conway can make out okay this week

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52 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Praying North Conway can make out okay this week

There is 7-8 inches right now in North Conway and Bartlett and moderate to heavy snow falling. This area is doing well today. Hopefully this area will make it through the next storm cycles

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For those interested ... the 12z Euro does pass a burst of WAA snow through the area re the 10th system.  N of the CT/RI border with Mass...but you know what?  The entire frontal tapestry of that thing is moving so fast, by the time the region goes over to heavy rain it's over with in a matter of 2 hours.  

You may actually add some snow, NW of along/N of HFD-BOS... before matting down.   But point being, it's moving so fast that removal of the entire ground snow appears less likely.

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1 minute ago, #NoPoles said:

There is 7-8 inches right now in North Conway and Bartlett and moderate to heavy snow falling. This area is doing well

Verbatim on the Euro they'll CAD well.

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1/13 looks like crap down here but looks good for NNE and even CNE on the Canadian. 1/17 coming in hot on the Euro. Also of note is a massive Arctic outbreak in the Plains/OHV at the end of the run. The CMC is even more extreme bringing single digits well into TX.

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30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I expected January to be underwhelming near the coast...like 1987 and 2003.

Good January call so far. This storm was hilarious, the usual suspects hyped it into a NYC snowstorm for days and days…when I gave my opinion last weekend and during the week that it wasn’t, I got attacked and trolled lol

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1 hour ago, H2Otown_WX said:

1/13 looks like crap down here but looks good for NNE and even CNE on the Canadian. 1/17 coming in hot on the Euro. Also of note is a massive Arctic outbreak in the Plains/OHV at the end of the run. The CMC is even more extreme bringing single digits well into TX.

If you hump a jma/navgem blend, big big things incoming

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