NorEastermass128 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 21 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 0z Icon looks nice here for the next storm 13th? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Two cutters coming up. We’ll see about after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Two cutters coming up. We’ll see about after. I haven’t given up on the 13th yet but I’d like to see a stronger trend soon. But there’s been some runs that had it a lot colder. Mean trough position is definitely more friendly by the 15th though… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Two cutters coming up. We’ll see about after. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I haven’t given up on the 13th yet but I’d like to see a stronger trend soon. But there’s been some runs that had it a lot colder. Mean trough position is definitely more friendly by the 15th though… Yeah I suppose maybe can’t rule out a SWFE. But that trough is so deep. I was hoping maybe the block would build in time for something like a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Gfs looks okay for NNE and CMC looks awesome up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs looks okay for NNE and CMC looks awesome up there Euro looks good , real good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Two cutters coming up. We’ll see about after. How about 3. Euro OP would suck big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: How about 3. Euro OP would suck big time. EPS disagrees 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: How about 3. Euro OP would suck big time. Geps disagree Look at the ensembles this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Geps disagree Look at the ensembles this far out Yeah, look at the ensembles that give you the most snow even though they're from the least reliable model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Yeah, look at the ensembles that give you the most snow even though they're from the least reliable model they all disagree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: they all disagree I mean how can you glean what the outcome is at the surface when you're just looking at h5? I understand it looks more favorable but I don't think you can say for certain it won't cut. And to be fair, I didn't see your post of the EPS lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: I mean how can you glean what the outcome is at the surface when you're just looking at h5? I understand it looks more favorable but I don't think you can say for certain it won't cut. And to be fair, I didn't see your post of the EPS lol. it's not certain that it won't cut... cutting during that timeframe around the 17th just isn't the favored outcome. suppression seems more likely than a cutter given that pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it's not certain that it won't cut... cutting during that timeframe around the 17th just isn't the favored outcome. suppression seems more likely than a cutter given that pattern Ok well Tip agreed so that's good but I wonder why the Ops are so out to lunch? You would think the latent heat from the cutter on Tuesday/Wednesday would strengthen the block enough to stop the 13/14 from cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 5 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Ok well Tip agreed so that's good but I wonder why the Ops are so out to lunch? You would think the latent heat from the cutter on Tuesday/Wednesday would strengthen the block enough to stop the 13/14 from cutting. How many times can you recall a long range blizzard that just didn't add up given the pattern and it eventually ended up a rainstorm. It goes both ways, not that it definitely will this time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS disagrees It's a smoothed out mean though. Not a fan of the coast to coast troughing. Would like to see some ridging out west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's a smoothed out mean though. Not a fan of the coast to coast troughing. Would like to see some ridging out west. the TPV is in southeast Canada and is pinned under a block. would be really tough to get a cutter in this pattern. nothing is impossible, but this pattern favors sliders over cutters for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the TPV is in southeast Canada and is pinned under a block. would be really tough to get a cutter in this pattern. nothing is impossible, but this pattern favors sliders over cutters for sure My issue with that is the compressed medium due to the se ridge...will tend to shear approaching SWs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My issue with that is the compressed medium due to the se ridge...will tend to shear approaching SWs. lord knows why there's a SE ridge trying to rear its head still 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: lord knows why there's a SE ridge trying to rear its head still Well, look out west...those are the risks with RNA. It should eventually abate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, look out west...those are the risks with RNA. It should eventually abate. overall, though, I do think it's a conducive pattern. strong AK ridging, Arctic airmass, decaying west based -NAO, and TPV in SE Canada. it has a lot going for it, definitely higher end potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 How much rain are we looking at Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, look out west...those are the risks with RNA. It should eventually abate. Which is why the Euro cutting everything has merit still. Very Nina like pattern energized by Nino storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, Modfan2 said: How much rain are we looking at Wednesday? Couple inches. Looking forward to it. 55 rain > 34 rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, Modfan2 said: How much rain are we looking at Wednesday? 2-4” Tuesday night/ Wed and another 2-4” next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: the TPV is in southeast Canada and is pinned under a block. would be really tough to get a cutter in this pattern. nothing is impossible, but this pattern favors sliders over cutters for sure Yeah no doubt I'd be more worried about TN/SC/GA seeing snow on 1/18 than a cutter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I haven’t given up on the 13th yet but I’d like to see a stronger trend soon. But there’s been some runs that had it a lot colder. Mean trough position is definitely more friendly by the 15th though… 00z GGEM for example... Otherwise, nada/no-go on coastal commitment from other operational versions - although yesteday's 12z JMA looked suspiciously like it bombed the 13th cyclone as it rips a fast mover from the TV to the GOM - I have zip real-time experience with that product though, and it's coarseness doesn't lend to confidence either. So I guess we have the GGEM/JMA against every more higher performance method imaginable - ha, not a good optic ... But we'll see. The NAO is negative on the 13th ( pretty deeply so in the numerical values), with the actual spatial depictions also showing ample hgt anomalies over the western limb. The PNA has even begun to rise - but still negative. It can be argued in both directions. The short version is that if we average the position climo for a -PNA/-NAO, it's just about collocated where the EPS and GEFs mean are for that for that time range. Very interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Which is why the Euro cutting everything has merit still. Very Nina like pattern energized by Nino storminess. Well, its possible, but at least as likely it trends east some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Gfs buries whites with over a foot Tuesday night into wed am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now