brooklynwx99 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Just adding to Will's post above ... ...the GEFs seem to be trying to lean more GEPy on this 12z mean, as already by D9 we see a more western limb -NAO expression .. .even merging with the eastern extension of the EPO domain. Heh, you know, I've always wondered if there should be a mid Canada ( >60 N) teleconnector domain defined yeah, the GEFS is a lot more like the CMC/GEPS than its own OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Might explain his posts? Thanks Deb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 People posting cold and dry? Say wut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, the GEFS is a lot more like the CMC/GEPS than its own OP I hate the NAO by the way... It's the bastard index of the bunch. It really only exists because it's the residue of the Pacific R-wave decay after its been tormented by continental storm traffic and topographic bouncing. It's stochastic because that stuff, and just because it is complex, but complexity that is through a virtual continental boundary of chaos. It's like it almost can't be modeled unless this QC stuff really comes on line - that's a fascinating 'nother discussion. Really - if quantum computing comes on line, those kind of 'fuzzy logic' aspects of this business get a lot more clear ... real fast. - digress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I hate the NAO by the way... It's the bastard index of the bunch. It really only exists because it's the residue of the Pacific R-wave decay after its been tormented by continental storm traffic and topographic bouncing. It's stochastic because that stuff, and just because it is complex, but complexity that is through a virtual continental boundary of chaos. It's like it almost can't be modeled unless this QC stuff really comes on line - that's a fascinating 'nother discussion. Really - if quantum computing comes on line, those kind of 'fuzzy logic' aspects of this business get a lot more clear ... real fast. - digress yeah, the wave breaking -NAOs are always so tricky. they're usually modeled way better when they're the classic retrograding Scandi blocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 GEFS def trended toward EPS today in the long range…but still not fully there. I think that’s going to be crucial if we want a nice period mid-month into MLK week. Otherwise we might just be waiting for MJO to cruise back into phase 7 and beyond late in the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Weds looking to wedge a bit more on the 12z Euro, Northern Maine looks to remain that way as well as it looks like were starting to see a cold press out of Canada. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: Weds looking to wedge a bit more on the 12z Euro, Northern Maine looks to remain that way as well as it looks like were starting to see a cold press out of Canada. That was a lot thumpier for NNE than previous Euro runs. Wolfie will rejoice at the N Maine depiction where they stay all snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That was a lot thumpier for NNE than previous Euro runs. Wolfie will rejoice at the N Maine depiction where they stay all snow. They would get clobbered with that, I be rejoicing as well over towards Eustis/Rangeley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, dryslot said: They would get clobbered with that, I be rejoicing as well over towards Eustis/Rangeley. Yeah they eventually mix but they avoid the warm torch and they get smoked with a good front ender. Good meaty base for sledding country…hopefully it trends more that way in future runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Yeah…maybe even a few inches here. The more we can minimize the rain and melt the better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, dendrite said: Yeah…maybe even a few inches here. The more we can minimize the rain and melt the better. You def keep some pack on a 12z euro solution. Your area never truly warm sectors. You get kind of a contaminated one in the 40s for a time but the real dewy 50s stuff is shunted east by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah they eventually mix but they avoid the warm torch and they get smoked with a good front ender. Good meaty base for sledding country…hopefully it trends more that way in future runs. That is actually the first time the Euro has had any CAD signature for this one, That would really set the stage with the pasty look and then hard freeze that before the one on the 13th, It would be off to the races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Whittling away and then the snowiest run in awhile (maybe yet for that model?) 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, dryslot said: That is actually the first time the Euro has had any CAD signature for this one, That would really set the stage with the pasty look and then hard freeze that before the one on the 13th, It would be off to the races. Another trend or two like that would be great. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: That is actually the first time the Euro has had any CAD signature for this one, That would really set the stage with the pasty look and then hard freeze that before the one on the 13th, It would be off to the races. Sometimes we trend back towards what was depicted earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, dendrite said: Another trend or two like that would be great. No doubt about that, The juice is there, Would make for some hefty snow totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Sometimes we trend back towards what was depicted earlier. GFS had showed similar for several runs, That's the first time the euro has anything even remotely close to this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Big snows for whites on euro wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Nice hit next weekend for CNE and NNE on the euro. That's a cold airmass across NNE on that run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: Another trend or two like that would be great. And then throw this over the top of Weds, And you can catch climo avg real quick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: GFS had showed similar for several runs, That's the first time the euro has anything even remotely close to this. 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: GFS had showed similar for several runs, That's the first time the euro has anything even remotely close to this. Euro usually slower on that I think. Maybe GFS comes back. Feels like the situation Kat Trent in our favor. Perhaps what happens with Sunday storm will clear it up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Lets get that a bit more south next weekend. Definitely a better trend with the blocking like Will said on the GEFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 13th looking better each day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Euro usually slower on that I think. Maybe GFS comes back. Feels like the situation Kat Trent in our favor. Perhaps what happens with Sunday storm will clear it up a bit. I think it was Will that had mentioned and can correct me if i don't have it right, That the NAO was heading negative and there was a HP over the davis staits that models would have a tough time resolving from a long lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Lets get that a bit more south next weekend. Definitely a better trend with the blocking like Will said on the GEFS. Nah pattern sucks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Big snows for whites on euro wow My trip to North Conway at the end of the month rejoices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Nah pattern sucks... It does for the time being overall. Talk to me on the 13th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Nah pattern sucks... Lock it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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