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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just adding to Will's post above ...

 ...the GEFs seem to be trying to lean more GEPy on this 12z mean, as already by D9 we see a more western limb -NAO expression .. .even merging with the eastern extension of the EPO domain.  Heh, you know, I've always wondered if there should be a mid Canada ( >60 N) teleconnector domain defined

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_42.png

yeah, the GEFS is a lot more like the CMC/GEPS than its own OP

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11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, the GEFS is a lot more like the CMC/GEPS than its own OP

I hate the NAO by the way... It's the bastard index of the bunch.  It really only exists because it's the residue of the Pacific R-wave decay after its been tormented by continental storm traffic and topographic bouncing. 

It's stochastic because that stuff, and just because it is complex, but complexity that is through a virtual continental boundary of chaos.  It's like it almost can't be modeled  unless this QC stuff really comes on line - that's a fascinating 'nother discussion.

Really - if quantum computing comes on line, those kind of 'fuzzy logic' aspects of this business get a lot more clear ... real fast.    - digress

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I hate the NAO by the way... It's the bastard index of the bunch.  It really only exists because it's the residue of the Pacific R-wave decay after its been tormented by continental storm traffic and topographic bouncing. 

It's stochastic because that stuff, and just because it is complex, but complexity that is through a virtual continental boundary of chaos.  It's like it almost can't be modeled  unless this QC stuff really comes on line - that's a fascinating 'nother discussion.

Really - if quantum computing comes on line, those kind of 'fuzzy logic' aspects of this business get a lot more clear ... real fast.    - digress

yeah, the wave breaking -NAOs are always so tricky. they're usually modeled way better when they're the classic retrograding Scandi blocks

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GEFS def trended toward EPS today in the long range…but still not fully there. I think that’s going to be crucial if we want a nice period mid-month into MLK week. Otherwise we might just be waiting for MJO to cruise back into phase 7 and beyond late in the month. 

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8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Weds looking to wedge a bit more on the 12z Euro, Northern Maine looks to remain that way as well as it looks like were starting to see a cold press out of Canada.

That was a lot thumpier for NNE than previous Euro runs. Wolfie will rejoice at the N Maine depiction where they stay all snow. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was a lot thumpier for NNE than previous Euro runs. Wolfie will rejoice at the N Maine depiction where they stay all snow. 

They would get clobbered with that, I be rejoicing as well over towards Eustis/Rangeley.

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Just now, dryslot said:

They would get clobbered with that, I be rejoicing as well over towards Eustis/Rangeley.

Yeah they eventually mix but they avoid the warm torch and they get smoked with a good front ender. Good meaty base for sledding country…hopefully it trends more that way in future runs. 

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Just now, dendrite said:

Yeah…maybe even a few inches here. The more we can minimize the rain and melt the better.

You def keep some pack on a 12z euro solution. Your area never truly warm sectors. You get kind of a contaminated one in the 40s for a time  but the real dewy 50s stuff is shunted east by that point. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah they eventually mix but they avoid the warm torch and they get smoked with a good front ender. Good meaty base for sledding country…hopefully it trends more that way in future runs. 

That is actually the first time the Euro has had any CAD signature for this one, That would really set the stage with the pasty look and then hard freeze that before the one on the 13th, It would be off to the races.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

That is actually the first time the Euro has had any CAD signature for this one, That would really set the stage with the pasty look and then hard freeze that before the one on the 13th, It would be off to the races.

Another trend or two like that would be great.

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That is actually the first time the Euro has had any CAD signature for this one, That would really set the stage with the pasty look and then hard freeze that before the one on the 13th, It would be off to the races.

Sometimes we trend back towards what was depicted earlier.

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8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

GFS had showed similar for several runs, That's the first time the euro has anything even remotely close to this.

Euro usually slower on that I think.  Maybe GFS comes back.  Feels like the situation Kat Trent in our favor. Perhaps what happens with Sunday storm will clear it up a bit.

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3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Euro usually slower on that I think.  Maybe GFS comes back.  Feels like the situation Kat Trent in our favor. Perhaps what happens with Sunday storm will clear it up a bit.

I think it was Will that had mentioned and can correct me if i don't have it right, That the NAO was heading negative and there was a HP over the davis staits that models would have a tough time resolving from a long lead

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