codfishsnowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 These strong cutters with flooding and wind damage risks can end anytime soon. If it were possible I would forgo snow to not have to worry about these demon storms 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The weekend snow basically just a stay padder . Won’t even have time to enjoy it when 2 days later it’s screamed away faster than the sweet potatoes on Scooters Tgiving plate. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Pattern looks decent after the disaster on the 10th at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 she gone for SNE. Still think we can make this work in my hood and points north. Too bad we've lost that earlier transfer on all models. Plenty of time to trend in the right direction though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 why's everyone so down on the cutter? it's going to be very very exciting. hopefully it cuts far enough west we sector and get some crazy winds again. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 the cutter on the 10th was going to be a cutter for like the last 10 days lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 What a disaster. I know we're supposed to compartmentalize and live in the moment, but this definitely dampens the excitement for the weekend system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 To bad you cant predict a snower outside of 10 mins, But you can verify a cutter at Day 10. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 We had that 1 run on several models that gave us hope 24 hours ago... but poof 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 In the good years or better seasons a cutter was snow to ice/rain with a net gain or minimal loss....if we can get all these cutters maybe we can get a monster snow event like the mid Atlantic had that winter of 2009-2010 or something Nemosesque 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Yup, it's been consistent for days. 6 days out though and I suspect it will be a while before we get a handle on the strength of any CAD and timing of any secondary SLP. I'd feel good in the western Maine mountains and northern Maine. It snows where it should snow. SNE never had a shot at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the cutter on the 10th was going to be a cutter for like the last 10 days lmao Yeah, it is a matter of some folks hoping for a front-ender to cold rain/slot, so their pack isn't gone. While others prefer a wild, windy 55F pack obliterator that takes some down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, NW_of_GYX said: Yup, it's been consistent for days. 6 days out though and I suspect it will be a while before we get a handle on the strength of any CAD and timing of any secondary SLP. I'd feel good in the western Maine mountains and northern Maine. It snows where it should snow. SNE never had a shot at this. Yeah, All this outside of a a couple runs for SNE, Its highly questionable here as well, Maybe some front end stuff as it stands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Cutters of yore are nothing like the cutters now. These cutters today are more like mini TC's. High dews, High PWAT's, High winds, high temps. Season destroyers or close to it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the cutter on the 10th was going to be a cutter for like the last 10 days lmao That thing has been modeled on every run of every LR model since like d13. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Lol. Do I even bother putting the plow on the truck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Round 3 of wintry precip today. Snow showers with those little beady things mixed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 sleeting here as well, no snow atm. Had some nice wind gusts ahead of that, 30kt? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: That thing has been modeled on every run of every LR model since like d13. Are there specific characteristics associated with a cutter that allows it to be sniffed out and held onto so far in advance? Assuming it actually does come to fruition of course. I imagine confidence builds in it actually happening as we get closer to go-time. Or, is it simply like other storms that get picked up well ahead of time, regardless of track? I'm thinking that because I'd prefer to not have cold rain, my personal negative bias is viewing this differently. Whereas if it were a coastal showing heavy snows along the New England seaboard I'm likely not asking the same questions as to "why this was picked up on the modeling so early". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 There;s still a very real chance that 1/10 ends up a good front ender for many....whether that's only reserved for CNE/NNE or also SNE still remains to be seen. Euro being stubborn isn't a good sign for the colder solution right now so I'd favor mostly rain for SNE, but maybe it capitulates in these next few cycles. The reason is that the biggest uncertainty seems to be what is going on up north in Quebec east of James Bay with the height field Around D4.5-D5...and that's where model error tends to be larger vs down in the lower latitudes. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Layman said: Are there specific characteristics associated with a cutter that allows it to be sniffed out and held onto so far in advance? Assuming it actually does come to fruition of course. I imagine confidence builds in it actually happening as we get closer to go-time. Or, is it simply like other storms that get picked up well ahead of time, regardless of track? I'm thinking that because I'd prefer to not have cold rain, my personal negative bias is viewing this differently. Whereas if it were a coastal showing heavy snows along the New England seaboard I'm likely not asking the same questions as to "why this was picked up on the modeling so early". Well I just mean a significant low has been consistently modeled. The storm can shift 200 miles either way and it’s still a cutter to us. But in the Plains or Great Lakes it can mean drastically different weather. The warm frontal precip and warm sector covers a large area. The sweet spot in a snowstorm is usually much smaller on a spatial scale. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: sleeting here as well, no snow atm. Had some nice wind gusts ahead of that, 30kt? Had a very brief flurry here at work a few minutes ago. Hadn’t see. Snow in the air since November I think 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 25 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah, it is a matter of some folks hoping for a front-ender to cold rain/slot, so their pack isn't gone. While others prefer a wild, windy 55F pack obliterator that takes some down. The storm on the 10th is not going to have the destructive potential of the pre-Christmas disaster. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: The storm on the 10th is not going to have the destructive potential of the pre-Christmas disaster. Yes it will. There is a tremendous difference in pressure gradient 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yes it will. There is a tremendous difference in pressure gradient I’ll take the under compared to last storm. It’ll be very meh up here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yes it will. There is a tremendous difference in pressure gradient Just now, dendrite said: I’ll take the under compared to last storm. It’ll be very meh up here. There's a lot of inversion to overcome in this one...even on a Euro solution the lower levels take a long time to scour out over the interior. The Cape and islands and those types of typical places look vulnerable, but it's so hard to get 50+ knots over interior like that December storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 50 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the cutter on the 10th was going to be a cutter for like the last 10 days lmao People latch on to hope fostered by a rogue run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Now this is a west loading -EPO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: The storm on the 10th is not going to have the destructive potential of the pre-Christmas disaster. Yeah I'm not calling for that, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’ll take the under compared to last storm. It’ll be very meh up here. Yeah, There was pack that got wiped out to go with the last one to create the record flooding, Not this go round if there is, Its not rains to the Gaspe on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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