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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Saw the sun for the first time since before Christmas up here.  Bluebird and fresh snow.  Winter wonderland vibes.

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And Waterbury Center a few Miles SSE is goose egg on the ground.  While a few miles SSE of me is 4 inches.  Such a weird thing happened yesterday.  

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13 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

And Waterbury Center a few Miles SSE is goose egg on the ground.  While a few miles SSE of me is 4 inches.  Such a weird thing happened yesterday.  

It was honestly one of the weirdest snowfalls I’ve seen in this area.  I know no one cares and there’s other stuff going on, but for an area used to mesoscale differences, this was on another level.

Forge Gym and Country Club of Vermont looked like 4-5” in Waterbury, while Cabot Annex to Cold Hollow Cider to Micheal's went to bare ground with a trace.

The drive to BTV was brown after Waterbury, and the crazy thing was it seemed to snow on just the north side of I-89 in Waterbury.  The south facing trees had snow on them, but the north facing ones were bare.  Super weird.

4-8” along Mountain Road that you could walk out of.  I walk the dog on a 3 mile loop and can essentially punch out of the zone.

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8 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah... it looks like the -NAO is trying to exert a weee bit earlier than prior depictions.  This being 8 days out - obviously goes without saying, a wholesale correction east with that OV trough becomes more penetrative.  The whole thing could change into something else.  

The NAO is a masterful headache inducer.  It's seldom correctly handled even at D8.  For that matter, it could just up and evolve into an eastern limb expression... sending things to Manitoba.   But present trends are the other way so - all possibilities about the flow east of Chi-town are still in the playoff hunt re Jan 10/11

I love "penetrative" patterns. 

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31 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It was honestly one of the weirdest snowfalls I’ve seen in this area.  I know no one cares and there’s other stuff going on, but for an area used to mesoscale differences, this was on another level.

Forge Gym and Country Club of Vermont looked like 4-5” in Waterbury, while Cabot Annex to Cold Hollow Cider to Micheal's went to bare ground with a trace.

The drive to BTV was brown after Waterbury, and the crazy thing was it seemed to snow on just the north side of I-89 in Waterbury.  The south facing trees had snow on them, but the north facing ones were bare.  Super weird.

4-8” along Mountain Road that you could walk out of.  I walk the dog on a 3 mile loop and can essentially punch out of the zone.

IMG_7272.thumb.jpeg.20d0df3cf67a9fc27fe2b2859a6377e6.jpeg

I love microclimate stuff like that. The radar coverage from KCXX is poor there, but it did capture some of the action where it was able to look up the Winooski River Valley. The band had to be less than 10 miles wide and persistent for hours. The highest report I saw was 8 inches. Did you see any higher than that?

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2 minutes ago, das said:

I love microclimate stuff like that. The radar coverage from KCXX is poor there, but it did capture some of the action where it was able to look up the Winooski River Valley. The band had to be less than 10 miles wide and persistent for hours. The highest report I saw was 8 inches. Did you see any higher than that?

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I’ve seen that before. The stranger part, to me, was the standing wave over Stowe that dumped on 108 but didn’t get up to the resort. 

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28 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I’ve seen that before. The stranger part, to me, was the standing wave over Stowe that dumped on 108 but didn’t get up to the resort. 

In my mind, the atmosphere is fluid.  So I look at all of the terrain generated snowfall like rocks in a river.  The inversion is the depth of the water, in the river scenario, and that’s what matters IMO.  The inversion height can explain most mountain snows.

In this case, it was a light flow overall but with a 900-850mb inversion.  Maybe some acceleration of the flow over and down the lee side, only for speed convergence to occur as the flow slows down slightly on the lee side.  The air was being squeezed out around the peaks.  A void was created downstream of the peaks, air rushed in to fill the void and where it collided (convergence) when wrapping around a peak, it created a narrow band of snow on the backside of the higher peaks.

Some turbulence and convergence (atmosphere is fluid, Iike water over rocks), brought localized narrow WNW to ESE bands of snow over 12-24 hours.

IMG_7274.thumb.jpeg.1ba49c040b524f739915ee529c276d9c.jpeg

IMG_7255.jpeg.44b2a852686bafda23e6b563eae15b3d.jpeg

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27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

In my mind, the atmosphere is fluid.  So I look at all of the terrain generated snowfall like rocks in a river.  The inversion is the depth of the water, in the river scenario, and that’s what matters IMO.  The inversion height can explain most mountain snows.

In this case, it was a light flow overall but with a 900-850mb inversion.  Maybe some acceleration of the flow over and down the lee side, only for speed convergence to occur as the flow slows down slightly on the lee side.  The air was being squeezed out around the peaks.  A void was created downstream of the peaks, air rushed in to fill the void and where it collided (convergence) when wrapping around a peak, it created a narrow band of snow on the backside of the higher peaks.

Some turbulence and convergence (atmosphere is fluid, Iike water over rocks), brought localized narrow WNW to ESE bands of snow over 12-24 hours.

IMG_7274.thumb.jpeg.1ba49c040b524f739915ee529c276d9c.jpeg

IMG_7255.jpeg.44b2a852686bafda23e6b563eae15b3d.jpeg

Fantastic overview, the final graphic reminded me of some shown to my class during a video in our Atmospheric Physics unit on turbulence. Honestly I only remember that video, not because of the examples and graphics shown, but because of how the professor was constantly lighting his pipe during the lesson.  

 

 

Hard to beat that introduction at 0:45. What a legend

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4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If storm 1 misses south like 18z’s all did.. we may well 

I was kidding but it would be nice to see a Novie 1950 at least once in my life. I mean 70-80 sustained at inland locations and it wasnt even a true hurricane? A storm like that is probably like 100 year storm at least. If the 10th turned into a 1950 I would be willing to sacrifice the storm on the 7th. 

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Lot of confluence on GFS for 1/10. If only the main shortwave wasn’t so wrapped up to the west, it would be a huge front ender. As it is, there’s a few inches, but the magnitude of deepening to the west is inhibiting some of the best dynamics to run out ahead as often does in early-stage cyclogensis. 

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lot of confluence on GFS for 1/10. If only the main shortwave wasn’t so wrapped up to the west, it would be a huge front ender. As it is, there’s a few inches, but the magnitude of deepening to the west is inhibiting some of the best dynamics to run out ahead as often does in early-stage cyclogensis. 

Part of Maine almost sent back to the days of being the Massachusetts Bay Colony on that run

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I can’t believe how devoid of cold we’ve been…I’m not complaining. Making it to the climo min without getting below 10° here would be like getting to mid July without 80s. 

Saw this fellow yesterday. Not sure if he decided to stay for the winter or has made an early return. Different times...

 

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