weathafella Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Heaviest frost in a long time. Fun to imagine… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just realized how the Jan 2 1987 event would have triggered Kevin. The syzygy storm. I think that’s the one where Tip posted he watched the the ridiculous surf and tide on Cape Anne. That was mostly paste near 495 too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The syzygy storm. I think that’s the one where Tip posted he watched the the ridiculous surf and tide on Cape Anne. That was mostly paste near 495 too. Kind of a sloppy mess here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6z GFS takes out cstl Maine's grid again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z GFS takes out cstl Maine's grid again. Little doubt that massive wind screamer is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Lottie doubt that massive wind screamer is coming ESE winds with a fairly cold 925 layer still. We mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Got my clear night! Keep ‘em coming. Jellyfish Nebula, Monkey Head Nebula, and cosmic dust. 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, Layman said: I have to admit myself, almost spit out my gum at my desk at work when I saw this. Thanks for the laugh. It's a good one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: The syzygy storm. I think that’s the one where Tip posted he watched the the ridiculous surf and tide on Cape Anne. That was mostly paste near 495 too. 16" at our Gardiner home, 2nd biggest of our 13 winters there. The event had 2 quirks: --PWM reported SN about 4 AM but it was shortly after noon before I saw flakes outside my August Eastside workplace. --It took only about 60 seconds for the rate to go from 1st flakes to 1/8 mile visibility. Other than Fort Kent snow squalls, I've never again seen such a wall of snow. GYX morning AFD was a downer for next week - hinting at whiff then deluge. Given the consistency [sarcasm] of the model runs, there will probably be more flipflops in prognoses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Little doubt that massive wind screamer is coming I still need to fix shingles that ripped off from last storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, tamarack said: 16" at our Gardiner home, 2nd biggest of our 13 winters there. The event had 2 quirks: --PWM reported SN about 4 AM but it was shortly after noon before I saw flakes outside my August Eastside workplace. --It took only about 60 seconds for the rate to go from 1st flakes to 1/8 mile visibility. Other than Fort Kent snow squalls, I've never again seen such a wall of snow. GYX morning AFD was a downer for next week - hinting at whiff then deluge. Given the consistency [sarcasm] of the model runs, there will probably be more flipflops in prognoses. I feel mildly optimistic that 1/10 is going to be totally fine for NNE. Might be some ptype mixing but I think there’s going to be a LOT of frozen precip there. Things could change for the worse but there’s been some ensemble support for a colder profile (front end thump to triple point type evolution)…so we’ll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Playing around with AI models. Some differences in the outcomes towards day 10. A more positively tilted trough on the some of the AI models vs the euro op and EPS which have a deeper trough out west. Some energy guys noted that the AI models have had some success in the medium range. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A Machine learning models"]} 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I feel mildly optimistic that 1/10 is going to be totally fine for NNE. Might be some ptype mixing but I think there’s going to be a LOT of frozen precip there. Things could change for the worse but there’s been some ensemble support for a colder profile (front end thump to triple point type evolution)…so we’ll see. Could see Wildcat crushing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I feel mildly optimistic that 1/10 is going to be totally fine for NNE. Might be some ptype mixing but I think there’s going to be a LOT of frozen precip there. Things could change for the worse but there’s been some ensemble support for a colder profile (front end thump to triple point type evolution)…so we’ll see. Yeah, there are plenty of ways to salvage 1/10 up here. If we have snow on the ground after 1/7, I wouldn't be calling for a total pack reset on 1/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 12z GFS shows you how the CAD signal can pay off for the 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z GFS shows you how the CAD signal can pay off for the 11th Love the trends at 12z for NNE on the 10th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 This pattern is so not Nino it's comical. So much for the big 2.0+ dailies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On the 10th, GFS really flummoxed with the surge of moisture into a very stubborn cold air mass. That evolution should be fun to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 GGEM went way colder and more CAD as well for 1/10. Doesn’t even taint once you get up to dendrite. Maybe a sneaky warm layer for a brief time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, dryslot said: 12z GFS shows you how the CAD signal can pay off for the 11th Yeah that may end up a net gainer (or no loser) even in parts of sne. That’s the trend so far. After the 7th storm exits there’s a solid hp in Quebec cadding for many. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, CoastalWx said: This pattern is so not Nino it's comical. So much for the big 2.0+ dailies. La Niña pattern. Looks like 07-08 or 08-09 on some of these progs with that gradient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM went way colder and more CAD as well for 1/10. Doesn’t even taint once you get up to dendrite. Maybe a sneaky warm layer for a brief time. That’s the kind of storm ski country needs to right the ship. Big qpf with some meat 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Love the trends at 12z for NNE on the 10th. That's a big producer where it stays snow, Both GFS and CMC are huge hits, Plenty of juice with that one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: La Niña pattern. Looks like 07-08 or 08-09 on some of these progs with that gradient. Stop talking dirty. I'll pass out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: La Niña pattern. Looks like 07-08 or 08-09 on some of these progs with that gradient. It does. 12z GFS at H5 really close to the 00z EC and Graphcast AI models too haha. May have to watch the SE ridge flex a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM went way colder and more CAD as well for 1/10. Doesn’t even taint once you get up to dendrite. Maybe a sneaky warm layer for a brief time. (psst, i think there's a chance that whole system decays into sw flow producer) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 39 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: That’s the kind of storm ski country needs to right the ship. Big qpf with some meat And no torches...keep building the pack. Lots to like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It does. 12z GFS at H5 really close to the 00z EC and Graphcast AI models too haha. May have to watch the SE ridge flex a bit. I read the weekly publications from the MJO desk/NCEP ... They often describe the MJO correlations as being in competing or 'destructive interference' with the "on-going El Nino response" umm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Could see Wildcat crushing NH resorts are WAY overdue for a crushing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 12/31/2023 at 5:36 PM, NittanyWx said: Just unnecessary level of emotion in discussing various factors and minutae that impact a storm. It's fair game to discuss it. I agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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