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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just realized how the Jan 2 1987 event would have triggered Kevin.

 

Map of snowfall amounts observed during the storm.

The syzygy storm. I think that’s the one where Tip posted he watched the the ridiculous surf and tide on Cape Anne. 
 

That was mostly paste near 495 too. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

The syzygy storm. I think that’s the one where Tip posted he watched the the ridiculous surf and tide on Cape Anne. 
 

That was mostly paste near 495 too. 

16" at our Gardiner home, 2nd biggest of our 13 winters there.  The event had 2 quirks:
--PWM reported SN about 4 AM but it was shortly after noon before I saw flakes outside my August Eastside workplace.
--It took only about 60 seconds for the rate to go from 1st flakes to 1/8 mile visibility.  Other than Fort Kent snow squalls, I've never again seen such a wall of snow.

GYX morning AFD was a downer for next week - hinting at whiff then deluge. Given the consistency [sarcasm] of the model runs, there will probably be more flipflops in prognoses.
 

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6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

16" at our Gardiner home, 2nd biggest of our 13 winters there.  The event had 2 quirks:
--PWM reported SN about 4 AM but it was shortly after noon before I saw flakes outside my August Eastside workplace.
--It took only about 60 seconds for the rate to go from 1st flakes to 1/8 mile visibility.  Other than Fort Kent snow squalls, I've never again seen such a wall of snow.

GYX morning AFD was a downer for next week - hinting at whiff then deluge. Given the consistency [sarcasm] of the model runs, there will probably be more flipflops in prognoses.
 

I feel mildly optimistic that 1/10 is going to be totally fine for NNE. Might be some ptype mixing but I think there’s going to be a LOT of frozen precip there. Things could change for the worse but there’s been some ensemble support for a colder profile (front end thump to triple point type evolution)…so we’ll see. 

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Playing around with AI models. Some differences in the outcomes towards day 10. A more positively tilted trough on the some of the AI models vs the euro op and EPS which have a deeper trough out west. 

 

Some energy guys noted that the AI models have had some success in the medium range. 

 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A Machine learning models"]}

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I feel mildly optimistic that 1/10 is going to be totally fine for NNE. Might be some ptype mixing but I think there’s going to be a LOT of frozen precip there. Things could change for the worse but there’s been some ensemble support for a colder profile (front end thump to triple point type evolution)…so we’ll see. 

Could see Wildcat crushing 

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18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I feel mildly optimistic that 1/10 is going to be totally fine for NNE. Might be some ptype mixing but I think there’s going to be a LOT of frozen precip there. Things could change for the worse but there’s been some ensemble support for a colder profile (front end thump to triple point type evolution)…so we’ll see. 

Yeah, there are plenty of ways to salvage 1/10 up here. If we have snow on the ground after 1/7, I wouldn't be calling for a total pack reset on 1/10. 

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Just now, dryslot said:

12z GFS shows you how the CAD signal can pay off for the 11th

Yeah that may end up a net gainer (or no loser) even in parts of sne.   That’s the trend so far.  After the 7th storm exits there’s a solid hp in Quebec cadding for many.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

This pattern is so not Nino it's comical. So much for the big 2.0+ dailies.

La Niña pattern. Looks like 07-08 or 08-09 on some of these progs with that gradient. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

La Niña pattern. Looks like 07-08 or 08-09 on some of these progs with that gradient. 

It does. 12z GFS at H5 really close to the 00z EC and Graphcast AI models too haha.  May have to watch the SE ridge flex a bit.

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37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM went way colder and more CAD as well for 1/10. Doesn’t even taint once you get up to dendrite. Maybe a sneaky warm layer for a brief time. 

(psst, i think there's a chance that whole system decays into sw flow producer)

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36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It does. 12z GFS at H5 really close to the 00z EC and Graphcast AI models too haha.  May have to watch the SE ridge flex a bit.

I read the weekly publications from the MJO desk/NCEP ... They often describe the MJO correlations as being in competing or 'destructive interference' with the

        "on-going El Nino response"        umm

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