dryslot Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: EPS won’t disappoint. Looks good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, dryslot said: Looks good. Good to me for day 6. Not amped like op which isn’t a surprise, but good look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Good to me for day 6. Not amped like op which isn’t a surprise, but good look. Good spot really right now, Don't want its best this far out, Just like to keep this look until Thurs or so, Then we can start to dial it in 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 No changes 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Good to me for day 6. Not amped like op which isn’t a surprise, but good look. Def speeding up too looks like Saturday evening start down here now. Hopefully we can get some consensus in the next 24-48 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I started to a thread for this system - fyi ... I want to take a moment to discuss a major overhaul to the hemisphere beginning to emerge. It was a distant typically 'iffy' signal before, but around 3 days ago it started accelerating into coherence. Now we are seeing -1 to as deep as -2 SD WPO anomalies emerging in the telecon projection. This is also happening nearly in tandem with an emerging tendency to 'sag' the EPO back negative. You might recall ... I recently was concerned for a major warm up heading into mid month, possibly compensated by a -AO/-NAO. The -PNA/+EPO signal ( previous) is a Pacific warm signal that was diametric to a cold polar domain exertion. Very interesting... However, now the Pacific appears to be collapsing the other way - new but real. A newly defining -d(WPO) --> -EPO sends the Pacific arc into the 'AB' phase. The expectation therefrom materializes ( or tends to ...) blocking N overriding colder heights uncutting. This also tends to raise heights over the Alaskan sector ... all prelude to +PNA. That sequence of events is the natural propagation of the R-wave distribution. It was all missing up until 3 days ago but here we are with what really looks like a wholesale change. The -WPO crash in the telecon forecast during the ides of the month, and what is interesting is that the EPO starts actually sagging prior to any transmittance of that WPO signal into the N-NE Pac mode. That's flagging a constructive interference being position in wait. The two of those together is interesting after the 15th of the month 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Good to me for day 6. Not amped like op which isn’t a surprise, but good look. looks like the OP was on the tucked side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The Pope is awfully quiet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Let's see if we can get some run to run consistency. And Tip, starting a thread 6+ days out? (tongue in cheek here. Good opening to that thread) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I started to a thread for this system - fyi ... I want to take a moment to discuss a major overhaul to the hemisphere beginning to emerge. It was a distant signal but in the last 3 days, it's accelerated into coherence. Now we are seeing -1 to as deep as -2 SD WPO anomalies emerging in the telecon projection. This is also happening nearly in tandem with an emerging tendency to 'sag' the EPO back negative. You might recall ... I recently was concerned for a major warm up heading into mid month, possibly compensated by a -AO/-NAO. The -PNA/+EPO signal ( previous) is a Pacific warm signal that was diametric to a cold polar domain exertion. Very interesting... The Pacific appears to be collapsing the other way - new but real. A newly defining -d(WPO) --> -EPO sends the Pacific arc into the 'AB' phase, which means blocking N overriding colder heights uncutting. This also tends to raise heights over the Alaskan sector ... all prelude to +PNA. That sequence of events is the natural propagation of the R-wave distribution. It was all missing up until 3 days ago but here we are with what really looks like a wholesale change. The -WPO crash in the telecon forecast during the ides of the month, and what is interesting is that the EPO starts actually sagging prior to any transmittance of that WPO signal into the N-NE Pac mode. That's flagging a constructive interference is being position in wait. The two of those together is interesting after the 15th of the month Yeah, good observation. I noticed that too. That iffy time looks like it’s going away for the time being. Big block on today’s 12z EPS. I think we need that because that looks like a healthy -PNA developing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: The Pope is awfully quiet He’s whispering to the geese…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 15 minutes ago, dryslot said: Good spot really right now, Don't want its best this far out, Just like to keep this look until Thurs or so, Then we can start to dial it in Not trying to pee on your party because I've been burned by them, but Storm Vista snowfall maps have always seemed to be off by 1 category vs. its legend (8-10 is really 6-8.) Here's Pivotal if ur interested. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6 to 10 on the EPS mean is nuts this far out 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 6 to 10 on the EPS mean is nuts this far out Ya I was thinking that also…very healthy for a mean. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 i would be remiss to not mention this. this is a legit KU level block. 3 sigma at 12 days out is insane 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 i'm not even exaggerating lmao that is just a crazy WB -NAO signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Not trying to pee on your party because I've been burned by them, but Storm Vista snowfall maps have always seemed to be off by 1 category vs. its legend (8-10 is really 6-8.) Here's Pivotal if ur interested. I think I can live with that result…..and yes-they’re called clown maps for a reason. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 No complaints with that Euro run -- GFS with its typical depiction at this lead time to a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: i would be remiss to not mention this. this is a legit KU level block. 3 sigma at 12 days out is insane We’ll need that because thats a stout -PNA. But yeah, that’s a big block modeled. I think I’d want to see a ridge where that trough is for a KU but no complaints here haha. To Tip’s point, just don’t want that AK ridge to retro too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: We’ll need that because thats a stout -PNA. But yeah, that’s a big block modeled. I think I’d want to see a ridge where that trough is for a KU but no complaints here haha. To Tip’s point, just don’t want that AK ridge to retro too much. i think when you have a -NAO like that, you just need the -EPO, PNA can be neutral to slightly negative a +PNA doesn't show up on the mean generally in those KU type patterns. it's just transient as the storms develop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah, good observation. I noticed that too. That iffy time looks like it’s going away for the time being. Big block on today’s 12z EPS. I think we need that because that looks like a healthy -PNA developing too. When they work out those are awesome patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 once that thing decays or relaxes, though... that's where the big dog pops, theoretically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, CoastalWx said: We’ll need that because thats a stout -PNA. But yeah, that’s a big block modeled. I think I’d want to see a ridge where that trough is for a KU but no complaints here haha. To Tip’s point, just don’t want that AK ridge to retro too much. yeah, I'm just trying to show that the Pacific signal has recently begun to change toward helping our cause with that. But it'll be mid month... I mean we might have to deal with 3 or 4 days of AN ... it's part of the business. But the lease looks a lot shorter at the moment. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: i think when you have a -NAO like that, you just need the -EPO, PNA can be neutral to slightly negative a +PNA doesn't show up on the mean generally in those KU type patterns. it's just transient as the storms develop Yes, also a tremendous amount of cold in the central U.S. and Great Lakes to me means that the favored storm track would be on the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 12 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Not trying to pee on your party because I've been burned by them, but Storm Vista snowfall maps have always seemed to be off by 1 category vs. its legend (8-10 is really 6-8.) Here's Pivotal if ur interested. Not peeing on my party, I have pivotal, I have weathermodels, I have SV, I use SV for all the other maps and model analysis but while i was in there i thru that up and yes, SV is more generous with its qpf, Thanks though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Yes, also a tremendous amount of cold in the central U.S. and Great Lakes to me means that the favored storm track would be on the east coast the trough also rolls over and slips under the block. it's not a true -PNA... and there is also a -EPO that provides Arctic air. really exciting look here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: He’s whispering to the geese…. 1 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the trough also rolls over and slips under the block. it's not a true -PNA... and there is also a -EPO that provides Arctic air. really exciting look here This look reminds me some of Jan 2011…esp prior to the 1/12/11 storm. Big AK/Bering ridge with -PNA and big -NAO block. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 We (jdj) follow this all the time just to see if the EPS can find sniff out any snow threats and the last 2 years it’s been abysmal this is an absolutely loaded pattern on the eps with more threats beyond 1/7 and 1/10 that it’s sniffing out . Some huge 15 day outputs that I haven’t seen in a while.. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: This look reminds me some of Jan 2011…esp prior to the 1/12/11 storm. Big AK/Bering ridge with -PNA and big -NAO block. 5 day mean .. weenie range shows potential for transient PNA ridges like Brooklyn was saying .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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