January 2024 -- Discussion

[CoastalWx]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still don't see any discrete threat to ascend us from "pattern talk". I got shutout in December, which is pretty tough to do.

Yeah this December was about as bad as it gets. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

14 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Maybe I'm stretching here, but you're not going to be 45 to 50 after this Thursday. Friday, Saturday supposed to be a bit chilly, but for next week where you are, you're probably going to be in the load of mid 40s at the most for all of next week. Not 45 to 50. But it still doesn't get us any snow lol so it doesn't matter much I guess

Just taking GFS verbatim its highs in the 40s 12 of the next 15 days with 3 days in upper 30s. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Meanwhile there is me who is moving from the Midlands of South Carolina to Brattleboro at the first of the year, so this will be my first taste of a "true winter". Of course I am hoping for snow, but sustained cold to acclimate works nicely too

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[mreaves]

2 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Meanwhile there is me who is moving from the Midlands of South Carolina to Brattleboro at the first of the year, so this will be my first taste of a "true winter". Of course I am hoping for snow, but sustained cold to acclimate works nicely too

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Welcome to VT.  Sorry to tell you though, most of us up here don't really consider what Brattleboro experiences as "true" winter.  It's the banana belt of VT. 

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Surprising how we are still so torched post this coming weekend with the pattern change.  Just no cold air to work with GFS is still +5 to +15 for the weekend and much of next week.  Highs 45-50 still in these parts with lows around freezing. 

Yeah we talked about this a week or two ago.  My overall easy interpetation has been that Canada has been torched with mostly well BN snowpack. It's going to be a while until that changes. Models aren't going to be picking up on this until medium-range (they're usually biasing towards climo, no?) and that's where these "better" looks slowly morph into less than good over time, and you get that 1-2ish week delay.

[Go Kart Mozart]

20 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Welcome to VT.  Sorry to tell you though, most of us up here don't really consider what Brattleboro experiences as "true" winter.  It's the banana belt of VT. 

Isn't it in a nasty valley-snow hole too?

[Damage In Tolland]

No worries.. Peter Pann has us covered with the Spire model. 
 

https://x.com/tonypannwbal/status/1739708203292557697?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[kazimirkai]

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah this December was about as bad as it gets. 

I know this map isn't the most up to date but it seems like we haven't gotten the worst of it in the northeast

[jbenedet]

35 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Meanwhile there is me who is moving from the Midlands of South Carolina to Brattleboro at the first of the year, so this will be my first taste of a "true winter". Of course I am hoping for snow, but sustained cold to acclimate works nicely too

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

What’s prompting the move? I’m asking because I’m strongly considering a move to the area you’re leaving.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 512high said:

Pretty much! And Feb. 1st or so, I will hear you saying how warm your car seat is.....

Not sure where the "car seat" per se comes from - I never actually spoke that specifically.  I don't know anything about car seats - it is what it is.

It was only how a parked car on a sun abundant afternoon noticeably warms in the interiors much more so beginning on or close to Feb 10 every year.  It was palpable.  Some warming on the 5th is abruptly a lot of warming on the 11th.

I had noticed that long ago, and every year through the decades it was dependable. 'Oh. Right. It's Feb 11 - that's why it's so hot in here.'  

Later I learned of the solar max, solar min, and the solar transition periods that shoulder either.  They occur roughly 91.5 days in length..  The solar min is November 8th to February 10. The solar transition 1 starts on Feb 10 and runs out to May 10. The solar max kicks in on May 10 and runs out to Aug 8, whence the negative transition goes from then to Nov 8.  If you think about it, first days of any season as they are currently defined seem more so arbitrary when considering these physical facts about the celestial mechanics of Earth and Sun orbital relationship.  "Solar Winter" is half over now...

I just thought it interesting that the suns ability to warm enclosures seemed to coincide so closely with that official onset of the transition 1 period, Feb 10.  I've also noticed that snow banks get eaten back even on cold days, much more so around that time.  This is all of course latitude dependent.  At 42.5N these period are closer to evenly temporally distributed but S or N, these periods are longer or shorter respective of season. 

What's really at stake is that crossing the Feb 10 date, tugs chode hairs of those basking in the snow climate narratives and statistics of mid Feb.  LIke ... here we are supposed to be enjoying our winter punch and this guy comes along and interferes with our narrative? Must seem like deliberate turd mixing - how dare. LOL 

Years and years ago it became abundantly clear to me that early performing winters, those that coincide more closely with the thick part to solar min period, were a lot more for aspects like retention and breaking records and stuff.  That's why I like my winters "front loaded"  - rare as that may be. 

These days, with seasonal lag and shoulder smearing everything's all fucked up anyway so it's becoming more moot.

    

[Prismshine Productions]

What’s prompting the move? I’m asking because I’m strongly considering a move to the area you’re leaving.

Getting married!

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[mreaves]

28 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Isn't it in a nasty valley-snow hole too?

It is but you climb pretty quickly to the west.

[78Blizzard]

LOL at the 12z GFS.  We've seen this movie too many times.  Storm after storm passes to our south.  Then when the pattern flips, we will get the cutters.      

[dryslot]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No worries.. Peter Pann has us covered with the Spire model. 
 

https://x.com/tonypannwbal/status/1739708203292557697?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

The Xspire model has already expired.

[jbenedet]

7 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Getting married!

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Congrats. Where in SC (specifically) you moving from?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

LOL at the 12z GFS.  We've seen this movie too many times.  Storm after storm passes to our south.  Then when the pattern flips, we will get the cutters.      

He’s coming…

[Prismshine Productions]

Congrats. Where in SC (specifically) you moving from?

Moving from Swansea, about 30 minutes outside Columbia

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[Typhoon Tip]

You can see the albeit transient (hopefully...) -EPO warm up attempted over the east in the extended Euro. I mentioned this yesterday, that this +PNA ( that will apparently fail to do jack shit as it comes in and out of mode), may relax into a warm up toward Jan 10. 

The ridge (if it actually all happens that way) at the tail end of the run may be too flat (as is). Assuming the -EPO does sag hgts west, first ( so yar, there are some assumptions):  Warmth will also depend on whether there is confluence over Ontario..etc.  But you can see now the ridge over eastern Alaska/NW Terr., with heights plumbed through the Rockies, and at least a flat ridge ejected E.  

Sorry - I'm not making this stuff up.  I mean, will see what the ens look like but ... failing +PNA relaying into a -EPO burst ... yeah, it was/is pattern changing but I guess no where in the words "pattern" and "changing,"  does the phrase guaranteeing snow actually exist.  

 

[weatherwiz]

I am actually starting to get a little nervous. I was going to wait until the first or second week of January before eliciting those feelings but I think the MJO crapping out in phases 5-7 really screwed us. It's tough to tell if the changes moving forward or positive, but it seems to me it's kind of just the same stale pattern that becomes stagnant. The MJO does look to become more favorable, but unfortunately there might not be much for it to help with. Kind of worried that anything that looks better is more of a suppressed look. 

[cleetussnow]

No cold air = increasing chances of a ratter wall to wall.  

[weatherwiz]

We may need something abrupt and significant to change and shake things up. The way everything seems to go now small subtle changes and baby steps just don't work out.  

[George001]

So there was a lot of talk about the pattern flipping to much better after the new years. We still on schedule for that? 

[cleetussnow]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

So there was a lot of talk about the pattern flipping to much better after the new years. We still on schedule for that? 

Punted. 

[CoastalWx]

Good EPS run. 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

We may need something abrupt and significant to change and shake things up. The way everything seems to go now small subtle changes and baby steps just don't work out.  

Yeah ... a comet impact.

Also, so your previous re the MJO phase 5-7... Those are shit phases for us - we want those crapping out. 

Right now, we are in strong phase 1, which should correlate to a +PNA and well..that's what's going on.  There may some pattern lag with these MJO phase spaces too - so there that element of uncertainty. 

Having said all that... I don't think the MJO's doing jack shit.   The analysis recently wrote that the MJO is actually in destructive interference with the pass through the IOD region, and .. blah blah I don't think it's really doing much anyway. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ... a comet impact.

Also, so your previous re the MJO phase 5-7... Those are shit phases for us - we want those crapping out. 

Right now, we are in strong phase 1, which should correlate to a +PNA and well..that's what's going on.  There may some pattern lag with these MJO phase spaces too - so there that element of uncertainty. 

Having said all that... I don't think the MJO's doing jack shit.   The analysis recently wrote that the MJO is actually in destructive interference with the pass through the IOD region, and .. blah blah I don't think it's really doing much anyway. 

What I was thinking was after the cold November and when the MJO was much more favorable for us, we engulfed into a warmer pattern across the country (which seems very correlated to how you'd expect DEC to evolve during a stronger EL Nino) and as we did this the MJO fizzled out but it happened to do so in crappy phases. 

I agree that the MJO probably isn't really doing jack, but it's not really helping either. I think it's important to understand that the background state this winter is completely different than the past few years so those trying to say this winter will suck for the same reasons the last few did are totally wrong - but I think it's just becoming apparent subtle, small changes aren't going to get us anywhere. 

Forecast models continue to be insistent that tropical forcing ramps up and strengthens quite a bit in the IOD region...so maybe that will be the aid we need. Good point too about the lag...there would be quite a lag and with that...time may be ticking. If we don't see these changes start to actually take shape for another week - 10 days (or two weeks) we need to figure a lag in the 7-12 day spectrum...that gets us into the second week of January or so.

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Good EPS run. 

Yep alot of chances

[Ginx snewx]

18 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah we’ll agree to disagree there. Maybe you are right. I never like the idea of trying to cram climo snow into a month. Lot can go wrong. 2015 is never walking through that door again.

Seeing as it took 80 years to repeat Feb 1934  you probably won't see it but never say never in weather. 

Shorts and tees today when the sun was out. Loved it .

[weathafella]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Good EPS run. 

Yeah that was a large improvement over 0Z!

[dryslot]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Good EPS run. 

Been consistent for a few cycles, Hopefully correct the 1st 10 days of Jan.