ineedsnow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, CoastalWx said: I don’t think the ensembles will be suppressed. based on hr120 looks great to be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: ehhh honestly sometimes the word trend is overused. I think Wes (Usedtobe) used to say at any conference he hated that word trend. We have seen several potential events these last several winters where ENS support was very high several days out and even some good OP support in the 3-4-5 day range only for us to start getting inside 72 hours and things just fall apart. The weakness in the ensembles is they really don’t shake things up that much from the OP conditions so it’s not that unusual for ensembles to be completely not be representative of the changes that could present themselves at 96 hrs out If you were to see ensembles marching south to the NC coast in sync on several straight runs and flatten out west trough that would be a trend that matters big, but we got a long way to go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 17 minutes ago, George001 said: Navy is also north Now that's the old George we all know and love! 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The weakness in the ensembles is they really don’t shake things up that much from the OP conditions so it’s not that unusual for ensembles to be completely not be representative of the changes that could present themselves at 96 hrs out If you were to see ensembles marching south to the NC coast in sync on several straight runs and flatten out/weaken for next two days along with the W coast trough weaken your gonna need a small miracle to create the changes needed to bring it back north But they can also tell you if the op is out to lunch. If they are steadfast, chances are the op will cave at some point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 If the GGEM and GFS' respective handling of the NAO domain are more correct, there is no 10th event for this region of the country worthy of much discussion. I don't see how that system can survive to unfold a colder result with a -PNA and an NAO that has gone and done what most do - pull the rug out from under needing it to actually be real. There is a -NAO there ...but it's gone toward the eastern limb which cannot work in the R-w signal where the PNA is negative. Can it change back? absolutely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 You still want to see where the majority of the ensemble members are tracking or leaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: But they can also tell you if the op is out to lunch. If they are steadfast, chances are the op will cave at some point. Definitely . That is why they have value Im just pointing out they are not varied enough to account for that much variation considering the upstream changes that can occur at day 4-5-6 . I realize you know this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Ukie is pretty north too. Weird evolution…absolutely torches the Mid-Atlantic despite kind of a coastal track but there’s a lot of energy back in the OH valley so it keeps midlevels from closing off until just south of New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The uncle is north with snow into maine for the 7th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, dryslot said: The uncle is north with snow into maine for the 7th Can’t see the next frame after 144 but that looks like a run from Ray’s computer. Prob near jackpot for his area back to ORH while SE areas struggle with ptype. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: If the GGEM and GFS' respective handling of the NAO domain are more correct, there is no 10th event for this region of the country worthy of much discussion. I don't see how that system can survive to unfold a colder result with a -PNA and an NAO that has gone and done what most do - pull the rug out from under needing it to actually be real. There is a -NAO there ...but it's gone toward the eastern limb which cannot work in the R-w signal where the PNA is negative. Can it change back? absolutely... This is really interesting. One (or one group) of the models is going to be more correct than the others. With such a significant disparity, so much so that there may be NO storm, it'll be interesting to see which evolution is ultimately more correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is pretty north too. Weird evolution…absolutely torches the Mid-Atlantic despite kind of a coastal track but there’s a lot of energy back in the OH valley so it keeps midlevels from closing off until just south of New England. Yeah, I'm not too worried about the GFS southerly whiff - that's not a-typical considering that model's heredity. I'm just more concerned about keeping expectations in check. I think there's a real system here ( duh ) but there are very really arguments to keeping it middling in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Can’t see the next frame after 144 but that looks like a run from Ray’s computer. Prob near jackpot for his area back to ORH while SE areas struggle with ptype. Probably similar to the GGEM, Making me think that GFS run is a bit suspect with all other guidance being north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: If the GGEM and GFS' respective handling of the NAO domain are more correct, there is no 10th event for this region of the country worthy of much discussion. I don't see how that system can survive to unfold a colder result with a -PNA and an NAO that has gone and done what most do - pull the rug out from under needing it to actually be real. There is a -NAO there ...but it's gone toward the eastern limb which cannot work in the R-w signal where the PNA is negative. Can it change back? absolutely... Or putting it in overly simplistic terms: A lot more pieces need to change for the 10th to work out for snow lovers than the 7th-8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 12 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: why? 7th is obviously a whiff Ha!! Said who? You? Lololol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Lot of spread on GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Lot of uncertainty looking at that spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Lot of spread on GEFS. More or less two camps there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: More or less two camps there. Hugger/Whiffer, More west of the mean members too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lot of spread on GEFS. 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: More or less two camps there. DESI tossing out 4 clusters, but there are two dominant ones accounting for 64% of ensemble members. More or less varying degrees of amplification. But the snowier solutions are more amplified trof. The more you lower heights locally, he snowier the outcomes. Which is a pretty wild difference when you think about it. Some clusters feature a ridge overhead 08.00z, vs other clusters featuring a trof. So nothing is locked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: to the blind All that matters is the ensemble mean. Not to say that there isn't a realistic chance it could miss because there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lot of spread on GEFS. Well there are definitely more members to the west of the OP than there are to the right. Not sure if that's good or bad. But there are many that are just off the coast. Seems like there are nine that are far enough east that we won't give us much of anything. Been there about 11ish in the middle which seem to be a good track for Southern New England. Then there's about nine huggers. Depends on where some of them go. I will say that about six of them are in a spot where if they slide east northeast they'd be a good track for selling New England as well. To me, this is definitely something good to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The 12z UKIE had a nice storm track. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, dryslot said: The 12z UKIE had a nice storm track. Ray gets his CF 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 We saw the first signs of trouble on the 18z GEFS last night when that high to the north strengthened and started pressing more to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, 78Blizzard said: We saw the first signs of trouble on the 18z GEFS last night when that high to the north strengthened and started pressing more to the south. I’m still not convinced whiff is the primary concern. There is room for this to be too amped too. At 6+ days out though that is going to usually be the case…room for both options. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Minor leaguers hitting and so far for 12Z majors a whiff. Looks like uncle hit the nog before 7AM today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: But they can also tell you if the op is out to lunch. If they are steadfast, chances are the op will cave at some point. Pickles is always analytically seeking out an avenue to dissapointment, even if it means disregarding the ensemble mean at day 6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ray gets his CF Second best model!!!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’m still not convinced whiff is the primary concern. There is room for this to be too amped too. At 6+ days out though that is going to usually be the case…room for both options. Absolutely. My best guess is a moderate impactor that affects the majority of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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