STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 0z eps was South of 12z eps and had a better snows for SNE , esp S of pike and cut back CNE/NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 hours ago, BRSno said: I'd consider flying up for 1/7-8, but I wonder if being in NYC at this point is a bit safer. For rats or snow . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: For rats or snow . [ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The overnight comments sounded like beaten down weenies .trembling waiting for some bad model output 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 14 hours ago, NittanyWx said: It's a delicate balancing act of the 3 factors you're reinforcing here in addition to a low track omplicated and influenced by both upstream and downstream factors. And that's before we even get to the resolving of Canadian HP strength at hr 168. Lot more moving pieces here than just surface high and track of the low. Thought it was kinda ridiculous to simplify it down to such. Anyway, happy new year! I hope you keep posting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Good Morning 2024 - Happy New Year! Did I miss anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Regarding the 7th and the 10th, the models are going to keep on changing as we're well aware. Yesterday's runs were amazing last night runs were okay.... We're going to have the models going back and forth. I think we'll have a really good idea for the 7th, probably by this Thursday/Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 10th probably a SWFE or cut so just accept. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 10th probably a SWFE or cute so just accept. I imagine You woke up , looked at models , screamed at kids who were loud by 8am , your heads pounding and then stood in front of bathroom Mirror and told yourself to just accept the 10’th is gonna see some liquid 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I imagine You woke up , looked at models , screamed at kids who were loud by 8am , your heads pounding and then stood in front of bathroom Mirror and told yourself to just accept the 10’th is gonna see some liquid I mean all the angst yesterday looking past the 7th and already worried. FFS just enjoy what/If we get snow on the 7th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Pattern looks pretty good going forward. Should be some fun with a -EPO and -NAO. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I mean all the angst yesterday looking past the 7th and already worried. FFS just enjoy what/If we get snow on the 7th. I think Kevins' counting on 1-3 on Thursday night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mean all the angst yesterday looking past the 7th and already worried. FFS just enjoy what/If we get snow on the 7th. And the 10th might even be a net gain even if we’re flipping. Esp interior. Hopefully we trend that one just a bit more. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: And the 10th might even be a net gain even if we’re flipping. Esp interior. Hopefully we trend that one just a bit more. Loads of time for the 7th and 10th too come in completely different than what's depicted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I think Kevins' counting on 1-3 on Thursday night. He will likely see 1-3” of something Thursday nite , just not precip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 10 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Enjoy the ball drop and appreciate what you get. Sounds like he needs some balls dropped on his face. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Loads of time for the 7th and 10th too come in completely different than what's depicted. Yeah the longwave pattern isn’t going to change much but there’s some details that will matter a lot on both threats. For both, what happens to our north and east is going to affect things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 What’s the grass and geese say for next weekend? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 This could certainly shunt south . Theres a camp in the ensembles that keep this south of NYC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This could certainly shunt south . Theres a camp in the ensembles that keep this south of NYC You're totally locked into 12-18" in your head. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, CT Rain said: You're totally locked into 12-18" in your head. I’m legit concerned about it being less amped and sliding south. Hopefully the big snower happens. The way the last 2 years have gone.. usually what can go wrong has At some point that trend had to reverse I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the longwave pattern isn’t going to change much but there’s some details that will matter a lot on both threats. For both, what happens to our north and east is going to affect things. What are you thinking for best analog for jan 7? Reminds me of a mini Jan 96 lite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Anybody have 200mb jet stream pics to show how that translates to surface temps? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 So much hostility for no reason. We finally not only get one event to track, but two and that still isn't good enough Those up in northern areas certainly have some legit concern but the 7th is certainly the best signal and threat we have had in quite some time. Still a quite a bit of uncertainty involved and not sure I like the crap of shortwave mess but beggars can't be choosers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What’s the grass and geese say for next weekend? he gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What’s the grass and geese say for next weekend? Warm air is coming with it on the 7th the geese said. But He’s still worrying about the 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 17 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: What are you thinking for best analog for jan 7? Reminds me of a mini Jan 96 lite Almost looks like Feb ‘83 aloft…with a bit of the first storm from Dec ‘96 mixed in (12/6/96) since it comes in slightly more neg tilted and west of ‘83….but just like ‘83, there’s that risk of shooting ENE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Didn’t you say you didn’t like the warmth in last nites EPS for the 7’th Last nights EPS was colder than 12z and a great hit for SNE and CNE 5-7" mean at this range is legit. Several monster hits as well, the lean is North rather than south though so several NNE big hits rather than the Mid-Atlantic, which is good at this range for this forum as it seems like the bigger risk is a whiff south rather than a messy mix. Posted snow axis for just that storm so you can see where the lean is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Euro op really sheared out that s/w. That was a hell of a jump from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro op really sheared out that s/w. That was a hell of a jump from 12z. Amazing to see how erratic it has become . Gfs almost looks more like the old euro now with its handling of this threat in the 7-8 day range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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