Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I agree ... this storm in the Euro has the option of being a broadly expansive mix event with snow going over to a rattling off the eaves and bouncing down windshields. Freezing an option too but more likely a tall IP column. I'm saying this just purely because there is unusually ( what's new ) warm mass field south of the storm track, while the 500 mb trough isohyses remain open passing NW of the region. A 700 mb warm intrusion isn't a bad idea here. it is not abundantly clear that the exertion/rearranging of the -NAO ( be grateful it's western limb or we could be cooked with NY state transit), but if that begins to exert during the week and the 500 mb squeezes more S than we ... there's time for that too - Of course that’s an option on the table. 50/50 right now. Glad we have something to track at least. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I'll take a EURO/GFS comp. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I agree ... this storm in the Euro has the option of being a broadly expansive mix event with snow going over to a rattling off the eaves and bouncing down windshields. Freezing an option too but more likely a tall IP column. I'm saying this just purely because there is unusually ( what's new ) warm mass field south of the storm track, while the 500 mb trough isohyses remain open passing NW of the region. A 700 mb warm intrusion isn't a bad idea here. it is not abundantly clear that the exertion/rearranging of the -NAO ( be grateful it's western limb or we could be cooked with NY state transit), but if that begins to exert during the week and the 500 mb squeezes more S than we ... there's time for that too - It's a delicate balancing act of the 3 factors you're reinforcing here in addition to a low track omplicated and influenced by both upstream and downstream factors. And that's before we even get to the resolving of Canadian HP strength at hr 168. Lot more moving pieces here than just surface high and track of the low. Thought it was kinda ridiculous to simplify it down to such. Anyway, happy new year! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Of course that’s an option on the table. 50/50 right now. Glad we have something to track at least. Above all else ... right. Nice to have a "Fantasy Warning" issued LOL... We'll see how it goes. Frankly, I'm not particularly fond of any of these events to be honest. But my concerns aren't surrounding p-type. The telecons are going the wrong way from multiple sources. That's A. In fact, the textbook interpretation has each one of these losing that support in successive order, heh. Yet the operational runs have there magnitudes in the opposite order. It is what it is I guess. B, this is my own supposition so tfwiw: model amplitude bias may shock some as the scale of these come into nearer terms and we lose some 20 .. 40% of their magnitude. The speed of the flow tends to be slowed by guidance, and speeds up from D 9 to D 4. The speed up takes storm mechanical energy away and give it back to the baseline velocity anomaly. This is an aspect I've noticed since ...2010 really, about winters. The core months get speed saturated and we see this energy exchange. All the models do this... Yes, I think I'm the only one that notices this kind of excruciating detail because I have no life. But this why systems tend (not always) to be weaker when they come through that D4.5 model performance window. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I need a gummy after reading the posts from this afternoon. 4 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Above all else ... right. Nice to have a "Fantasy Warning" issued LOL... We'll see how it goes. Frankly, I'm not particularly fond of any of these events to be honest. But my concerns aren't surrounding p-type. The telecons are going the wrong way from multiple sources. That's A. In fact, the textbook interpretation has each one of these losing that support in successive order, heh. Yet the operational runs have there magnitudes in the opposite order. It is what it is I guess. B, this is my own supposition so tfwiw: model amplitude bias may shock some as the scale of these come into nearer terms and we lose some 20 .. 40% of their magnitude. The speed of the flow tends to be slowed by guidance, and speeds up from D 9 to D 4. The speed up takes storm mechanical energy away and give it back to the baseline velocity anomaly. This is an aspect I've noticed since ...2010 really, about winters. The core months get speed saturated and we see this energy exchange. All the models do this... Yes, I think I'm the only one that notices this kind of excruciating detail because I have no life. But this why systems tend (not always) to be weaker when they come through that D4.5 model performance window. I definitely feel like the wave will begin attenuating in future runs as it comes NE....that is a deep trough out west, which raises heights over the se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, SJonesWX said: I need a gummy after reading the posts from this afternoon. People ask me why i drink, I tell them you don't have enough time for me to tell you. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I need a gummy after reading the posts from this afternoon. Just focus on the 7th. Whenever I see Mets from other regions come in here and tell us how to read model output the eyes roll back. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Let’s keep the HP on the euro from slipping east and let’s keep its strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Let’s keep the HP on the euro from slipping east and let’s keep its strength Overall, I would split the 2 camps, Give the Euro a bit more weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 37 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: It's a delicate balancing act of the 3 factors you're reinforcing here in addition to a low track omplicated and influenced by both upstream and downstream factors. And that's before we even get to the resolving of Canadian HP strength at hr 168. Lot more moving pieces here than just surface high and track of the low. Thought it was kinda ridiculous to simplify it down to such. Anyway, happy new year! Happy New Year! Hope this can make it happen for everyone. We’ve been snow starved for way too long lol. Thanks for your and all the pro contributions/analysis. We have something to track for once. And maybe this can last to within 72hrs when the real fights will start! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I want the Euro to be right. Low right over Tblizz’s noggin. I’m with Torch Tiger, I want the low to trend more north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 For 80-90% of this forum, it’s going to be snow if the low tracks anywhere between the benchmark and ACK in the current synoptic setup. Now if we get more of a hugger, then you’re going to introduce more ptype issues. EPS has a lot more hugger solutions so that’s going to be messier…esp southern areas and coastline. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 15 minutes ago, George001 said: I want the Euro to be right. Low right over Tblizz’s noggin. I’m with Torch Tiger, I want the low to trend more north. I have a secret for you. It’s not going to be snow in Foxboro if the low tracks over me, 10 miles SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: For 80-90% of this forum, it’s going to be snow if the low tracks anywhere between the benchmark and ACK in the current synoptic setup. Now if we get more of a hugger, then you’re going to introduce more ptype issues. EPS has a lot more hugger solutions so that’s going to be messier…esp southern areas and coastline. SST in Boston as of yesterday was 46.6°F, which is a little warmer than even last year on Dec 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 18z GEFS not very interested on the 5th, Mildly on the 7th, But focuses on the 10th away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: 18z GEFS not very interested on the 5th, Mildly on the 7th, But focuses on the 10th away from the coast. On the 7th storm, the high to our north was stronger and pushing down, so not a good sign. A whiff/meh is still on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 What is even going on??? These last few pages have been an absolute mess. What is the fighting even over? There is too much fine detail going on. There’s certainly nothing wrong with discussing things in terms of verbatim several days out, but there needs to be perspective. At this point, the only thing that matters is there is potential for a storm and confidence in that is in the moderate territory now…you can argue high but that’s risky, even at this range. we have this going: 1) an NAO becoming negative and decreasing 2) a PNA becoming negative this combo can be stormy and that is being reflected by the OP/ENS. We are also seeing the strong high to the north. Based on the evolution of the pattern, we can probably gauge a higher likelihood for track but the evolution of things will be up for question. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: On the 7th storm, the high to our north was stronger and pushing down, so not a good sign. A whiff/meh is still on the table. Yeah, Really, No scenario is off the table, That's why we need to stay the course and let it play out over the next few days, That system on the 5th will have say in this going forward on the next 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 26 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I have a secret for you. It’s not going to be snow in Foxboro if the low tracks over me, 10 miles SE No it won’t be all snow but I could still get a few inches like the Euro shows with a hugger track. I want that fucker to ram into SE MA, and then keep going north into Maine. We are in the game in this pattern, but realistically we aren’t going to avoid taint at some point. I do not expect both the 7th and 10th to be all snow for either of us. Not with that negative PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 seems like within the next 10 days we might get something good.. enjoy everyone and Happy New Year! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I want a hugger track for 2 reasons. One is that the models that are more north (12z Euro) have a better outcome for the following storm. I have 0 interest in a foot of snow that only lasts 3 days before getting washed away. I would rather get 4 inches of snow with some sleet and maybe ice on top of that snowpack and have a better shot at maintaining a snowpack after the follow up wave. The Euro would be a net gain here, yeah I’m going to mix in both storms if it’s right but that’s a better outcome than a full blown cutter after the 7th storm. The second reason is I am going to be spending a lot of time up north to ski, so I want ski areas to do well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 hope and pray for the resorts to keep them in business!! Bring 'er in! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 And here I thought the arguing on the southeast forum was bad this time of year with a signal... Good lord darlings, just be happy we got multiple chances to score.Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Something to track, FINALLY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just keeps dumping snow. Standing wave going on almost 24 hours now. What a weird event. 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Just keeps dumping snow. Standing wave going on almost 24 hours now. What a weird event. Back to winter finally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 18z GEFS are a smidge warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 18z GEFS are a smidge warmer. Where ? Low is south and east of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Where ? Low is south and east of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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